Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 2:57 AM   Moonset 3:07 PM

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GMZ538 Expires:202405051515;;641255 Fzus54 Klix 050243 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 943 pm cdt Sat may 4 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz536-538-051515- chandeleur sound-breton sound- 943 pm cdt Sat may 4 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds around 15 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet.

GMZ500 943 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 050216 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 916 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Public forecast was updated to remove mention of evening showers/storms, as they have dissipated. Traffic cams along Interstate 55 would indicate that lowered visibilities reported in the McComb observation are very limited in areal extent. No other changes at this time.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The CWA remains along the northern edge of an upper level ridge where the flow is fairly zonal. North/northwest of the local area, the upper level pattern is fairly complex with a couple troughs as well as multiple shortwaves spread across this portion of the country. One of those weak shortwaves, seen on water vapor imagery, is moving northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will play some part in convection the rest of this afternoon/evening by providing some lift. The probably bigger portion of initiation and maintenance comes from instability created by abnormally warm surface temps. Mid 80s to 90 degrees aftn temps, while still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface is a pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, strong to possibly marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible. PW around 1.5" or less will be the biggest limiting factor to convective coverage.

Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of today with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley. Global models suggest that the trajectory of this trough will be slightly closer to the CWA than the one today. That would aide in small but appreciable increase in coverage over the the CWA However, still looking at pretty much the same area of impact...SW MS and areas of SELA northwest of an Gonzales to Bogalusa line. Probably won't see much, if any, convection southeast of that line.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal Monday before the ridge centered south of the local area expands across the northern Gulf Coast and across portions of the southeastern US. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 80s with records in the low 90s. So pretty likely to see some records broken. Forecast heat indices peak in the mid 90s to 100 degrees Wed/Thu. Although not nearly warm enough for heat advisory criteria, early summer heat often catches people off guard and could see some local heat related impacts.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Isolated late afternoon TSRA necessitate VCTS at issuance time for KMCB/KBTR, although there may not be direct impacts before convection dissipates in the next hour or two. Most of the overnight hours should remain VFR, but expect a period around sunrise of 2-3 hours where IFR or lower conditions will be possible at several terminals, especially KMCB.Any flight restrictions Sunday morning should start to improve by 15z. Areal coverage of precipitation is expected to be too low to justify in prevailing conditions Sunday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds. Small variations in the pressure gradient from day to day will result in fluctuations in wind speeds and seas but generally expecting around 10 to 15kts through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 84 66 84 / 20 50 10 30 BTR 69 88 70 88 / 10 50 10 30 ASD 69 87 70 87 / 10 20 10 20 MSY 72 86 73 87 / 10 20 10 20 GPT 70 85 71 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 69 86 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Manilla
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Sat -- 03:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:25 PM CDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:14 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Independence Island
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Sat -- 03:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 AM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:22 PM CDT     0.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:00 PM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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