Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:24PM Sunday February 28, 2021 11:44 PM EST (04:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:03PMMoonset 7:57AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202103011015;;282616 Fzus52 Kjax 010129 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 829 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-011015- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 829 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 829 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
Synopsis.. High pressure, east of the region, will dominate the pattern tonight and early Monday with a cold front approaching the waters late in the day or during the evening on Monday. Low pressure will form along the upper gulf coast on Tuesday and move east across southern georgia on Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure will build in Wednesday night through Friday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of feb 27, 2021 at 1200 utc... 64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 72 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 99 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Beach, FL
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location: 29.58, -81.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 010204 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 904 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

UPDATE.

Winds are dropping with sunset. Mesoscale models continue to indicate shower activity developing over north-central Florida and moving north through dawn. At this time, just not seeing any indications that that is going to happen nor is there an obvious lifting mech to get them going. So right now not going to amend the Zones to account for this possibility but will keep VCSH in the TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION [618 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

. DENSE FOG POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR SE GA & SUWANNEE VALLEY TONIGHT .

Low stratus decks from this morning have broken up leaving a layer of flat cumulus amid south to southwesterly flow induced by the persistent surface high pressure to the east over the Atlantic. Despite extensive cumulus and cirrus drifting overhead on WSW flow aloft, filtered sunshine and deep-layer ridging will lead to another afternoon of near-record highs. Strong temperature contrast with record-level heat and cool coastal Atlantic waters will be able push inland this afternoon, combating the background southwesterly flow. Another sea breeze will sweep eastward from the Gulf, colliding with the Atlantic sea breeze along the I-95 corridor. Converging fronts may provide enough lift to overcome the weak capping inversion resulting in a few light showers late this afternoon and early evening, mainly along and east of the I-95 corridor from St Augustine southward.

Low level flow will veer further southwesterly tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest and high pressure ridge axis to the south. Weak isentropic ascent in southwesterly flow will generate another batch of showers after midnight for areas south of I-10 with chances around 20-30%. In addition to shower chances, there will be potential for low stratus and fog across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley as sea fog advects inland from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog may develop across the rest of NE FL but shower activity may disrupt development. Warm, moist airmass and intrusion of low stratus will limit cooling again tonight with lows only reaching the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night].

. HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA .

A cold front will continue to move southeastward, reaching the Altamaha River basin during the mid afternoon Monday before it slowly continues southward and eventually stalls across north-central FL early Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, southwesterly flow will increase, breaking up morning low stratus by noon Monday. Showers chances will increase from northwest to southeast along the front Monday. HiRes guidance indicates a potential for embedded storms across SE GA as the front pushes southward, but due to the loss of heating and appreciable instability, t-storm potential will be very low once the front enters NE FL Monday evening. Overrunning southwesterly flow and associated isentropic lift will continue rain chances through Monday night, primarily across SE GA.

A surface low will develop across the northwestern Gulf Tuesday morning as an upper low pivots over the lower Mississippi River valley. The surface low will drift into the northeast Gulf coast by Tuesday evening with an associated stationary front draped across SE GA. Elevated showers are expected in the vicinity of the front through Tuesday afternoon, with rain chances favoring locations north of I-10. As the surface low tracks inland Tuesday evening, it will shift across SE GA as it develops northeastward toward the Carolina coast. Strong forcing for ascent amid PWATs of 1-1.5" will bring a chance for heavy rainfall across northern zones of SE GA through Tuesday night, where rainfall totals of 1-2" are possible with localized higher amounts (WPC has outlined this area with a marginal risk for excessive rain). The cold front will trail behind the low as it shifts from the Gulf to the Atlantic through the predawn hours on Wednesday, bringing a chance of showers and slight chances of elevated t-storms across Suwannee Valley and SE GA.

Another unseasonably warm day is expected on Monday ahead of the first cold front. Cloudy conditions in tandem with a cooler airmass settling into the area on Tuesday will bring a much cooler afternoon with highs ranging in the mid/upper 50s across SE GA and mid/upper 60s across NE FL. There could be some variability in the temperatures with the stationary boundary stretched somewhere across north-central FL. Southerly flow will quickly shunt that boundary back to the north as warm front Tuesday evening, restricting low to the upper 50s and low 60s across NE FL whereas the cold side of the boundary will let temps drop to the upper 40s and low 50s across SE GA.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday].

Aforementioned trailing cold front will exit into the Atlantic by Wednesday afternoon. As it does so, skies will clear from northwest to southeast as cooler and slightly drier filters into the area on the periphery of an expanding surface high pressure northwest of the area. Surface high pressure will develop southward toward the Tennessee Valley on Friday with broad longwave troughing aloft. This will promote increasing onshore flow and potential coastal trough development. Still significant uncertainity this weekend, with a stark contrast in the medium range guidance compared to 24 hours ago. Sparing the details, another cold front is still progged to cross the region this weekend as an upper shortwave pivots into the northern Gulf and into the Florida Peninsula. This system will bring the next chance of rain to the area after a quiet, sligtly cooler than average end to the week.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Tuesday]

The sea breeze is pinned over KJAX at this time will make little further headway inland. HRRR is insistent upon developing some showers along the sea breeze convergence zone and moving then north toward the KSGJ/KJAX metro area. If showers move over any of the fields it is most likely to be KSGJ and have added a brief tempo overnight there. Otherwise included VCSH for the JAX Metro fields.

Might see some fog in the Gainesville area and given that field's propensity for briefly dropping down below guidance toward sunrise did go to 1sm in a tempo. Visibility restrictions should be very brief if it does happen.

As the frontal system approaches tomorrow evening have a brief tempo for showers after 1800 utc but timing looks closer to 21-24 utc for most fields. Ceilings should be in the 2.5-5.0 kft range tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE.

Southerly breezes will become more southwesterly overnight and through Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front, which will reach the southern Georgia waters by late Monday afternoon and continue southward across north Florida coastal waters Monday evening. Scattered showers are likely along the leading edge of the front with winds quickly shifting northerly then northeasterly behind it. Winds and combined seas will elevate in the northeasterly flow on Tuesday with winds between 15-20 kts across near shore waters and 20- 25 knots offshore. A Small Craft Advisory headline may need to be considered for this period. Another cold front will pass over the waters Wednesday with winds shifting to the south ahead of it and northerly behind it.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk at area beaches through Monday, with an increase to High Risk Tuesday with increasing onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER.

Southerly surface and transport winds will increase as the become more southwesterly through Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow peak daytime dispersion between 40-60 units on Monday. Showers and embedded storms are possible across SE GA along the cold front through Monday afternoon; showers will continue into NE FL Monday evening with limited potential for storms. Overrunning will favor rain chances continuing Monday evening and into Tuesday across SE GA. Despite limited mixing on Tuesday with overcast conditions, easterly transport flow will lead to marginal dispersion on Tuesday, except across north-central FL where weaker transport wind will lead to low dispersions.

HYDROLOGY.

Potential for heavy rainfall across portions of southeast Georgia between Monday and Tuesday night may prolong or exacerbate ongoing flooding in area river systems.

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING: Mod flooding that is ongoing along the upper Alapaha is expected to lower into minor flooding this week. Moderate flooding is expected on Santa Fe River near Three Rivers Estates this evening and is forecast to persist into early next week.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING: Ongoing along most of the Satilla, Altamaha, Santa Fe, and lower portions of the Suwannee Rivers. Minor flooding is expected to continue through this week and potentially into next weekend along the lower portions of the Suwannee River.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 62 80 51 56 48 / 0 60 40 70 80 SSI 62 79 54 60 54 / 0 40 40 70 80 JAX 64 83 57 64 57 / 10 20 30 50 60 SGJ 64 82 60 67 60 / 30 30 20 40 40 GNV 63 83 60 69 60 / 20 20 20 40 40 OCF 64 84 62 76 63 / 30 10 20 30 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 7 mi119 min SSW 1.9 72°F 1020 hPa69°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 20 mi44 min S 5.1 G 5.1 67°F 58°F1019.5 hPa (+0.0)67°F
41117 29 mi48 min 63°F3 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL19 mi4.9 hrsESE 410.00 miFair75°F68°F78%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXFL

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
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2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:46 AM EST     0.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:09 PM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:28 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.910.90.70.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.20.10.40.711.110.80.50.2-0-0.2-0.200.3

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida (2)
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St. Augustine Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:39 AM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:53 AM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:04 PM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:17 PM EST     5.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.70.4-0.5-0.60.11.52.94.25.15.453.92.51-0.1-0.6-0.212.43.74.75.154.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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