Friday, November22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Morgan's Point, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:23PM Friday November 22, 2019 3:49 AM CST (09:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:25AMMoonset 3:00PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 338 Am Cst Fri Nov 22 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy. Scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Isolated Thunderstorms late.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 338 Am Cst Fri Nov 22 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Small craft should continue to exceed caution in the off shore waters through daybreak, but then the flow is expected to weaker through the morning. A front is expected to be pushing through the region today bringing with it showers and Thunderstorms through the day the may bring locally higher wind gusts and seas. The front is expected to move off shore this evening with precipitation chances decreasing through the night. Tonight, a moderate northerly flow will emerge bringing again potential caution flag criteria in the offshore waters. Winds weaken for the start of the weekend with light onshore flow through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morgan's Point, TX
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location: 29.66, -95.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 220455 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance].

Expect the next 24-30 hours to feature more variable weather than usual in a messy, pre-frontal and frontal zone. In general, look for MVFR conditions to be the most common flight category. Light showers and drizzle will command the pre-frontal environment, with more showers and even a few thunderstorms possible along the front as it comes through later today Amendments. may be frequent through the day, as conditions may fluctuate greatly within MVFR, and flirt with tipping into IFR and VFR at times.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 832 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/.


NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Overall the forecast looks on track with mainly just updates to ongoing trends in rainfall chances and temperatures. Surface analysis at 02Z had the cold front through the DFW Metroplex down to Stephenville and then just north of San Angelo. Hi-res guidance has initialized this frontal position pretty well and bring the front into the area around 15Z Friday and then the Houston area around 18Z or noon-ish Friday. Temps should drop behind the front and we updated the forecast to reflect that temperature change. Rain chances per hi-res guidance look to be lower than synoptic models of GFS/ECMWF/CMC but not quite as low as one would suspect because it looks like low rainfall amounts are a good possibility. We noticed from a few evening AMDAR soundings from planes that there is a pretty healthy cap in the 800-700mb layer. That will have a hard time eroding. So we will be dealing with showers under the cap. SPC does have the area in a marginal risk for severe but think that risk is more east of the area per latest HREF guidance (better instability/shear environment). Also think the cap will be hard to break and thus limit thunderstorm threat.

Overpeck

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday).

A cold front extended from about Tulsa to Abilene to Hobbs. The front will move slowly S-SE tonight and Friday. A weak disturbance coupled with weak WAA will allow for some light showers tonight. A tight pressure gradient will relax tonight and winds will subside but not completely decouple and combined with expected cloud cover and high dew points will keep low temperatures quite warm overnight. Convergence along the slow moving front will allow for showers to increase in coverage on Friday. Fcst soundings show some capping which should erode Friday morning. SPC has placed the northern and eastern half of the CWA is a Marginal Risk for severe storms. CAPE values are progged to reach 1000 J/Kg but lapse rates don't look terribly steep and jet dynamics look weak so the severe threat looks rather meager at this time. There is some mid level shear which may boost the severe potential a bit but the overall threat seems minimal. The front should cross KCLL around 11 AM, reaching the Houston area around 4 PM and the coast between 7 and 9 PM. Winds will become northwest and temperatures will fall in the wake of the front. High temperatures are dependent on any breaks in the cloud cover and the southern half of the CWA could again reach 80 degrees ahead of the front. 43

LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday).

The extended period starts off with weak cold air advection behind tomorrow's cold frontal passage. If the models are any indication of evening convective activity it will be very tame with only rain (showers) and embedded ordinary thunderstorms passing across the far southeastern forecast area / points across the northwestern Gulf. The associated upper low will take a zonal path due east and ultimately position the best upper level (jet) forcing across northeastern Texas. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast through Saturday morning, minimum temperatures will be in the interior average middle to upper 40s (few far northerly spots will fall into the lower 40s) with middle 50s along the immediate coast.

Weekend weather can only be described by one adjective; pleasant. Surface high pressure envelops east state and weakens northerly winds through the first part of Saturday. Other than some feathery cirrus, expect mainly clear skies and chilly mornings in the 40s with both days warming up in the average lower to middle 60s.

General weak Plains 5H toughing early Thanksgiving Week will be replaced by weak ridging per a deepening Pacific Northwest trough. This will initiate a column-wide unidirectional west-southwest flow pattern across Texas. Lower level onshore flow returns by Sunday night into Monday morning and strengthens downstream of the next frontal boundary scheduled to pass through on Tuesday. Both the GFS20, GEFS and Euro solutions pass a progressive, yet very weak, cold front off the coast by midnight Wednesday while the Canadian shows no signs of this occurring and maintains a stout onshore flow. Grids currently reflect the majority consensus of a weak Tuesday cold frontal passage. The positioning of a Gulf-centered upper ridge will ultimately determine Thanksgiving Day weather. In tandem with the West Coast trough, southwesterly flow between the two features guarantees above normal warmth and an uptick in humidity; slight rain chances per northeasterly- traveling weak ripples caught up in the SW'erly steering flow along the eastern leg of the western trough. A mostly overcast Thanksgiving with slight to low end chances for showers; a mild start in the 50s warming into the middle 70s. 31

MARINE.

The pressure gradient will remain moderately tight tonight and the SCEC for the offshore waters has been extended to 12z Friday morning. Winds will veer to SW on Friday afternoon and decrease as the gradient relaxes in advance of a cold front. The front will cross the coastal waters Friday night with a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow developing Friday night into Saturday. A SCEC or SCA may be needed in the wake of the front. Surface high pressure will settle over the area Saturday night and Sunday and winds will relax as they gently veer to NE. Winds will veer to onshore Sunday night into Monday as the surface high drifts east of the region. Another cold front will cross the coastal waters late Tuesday or Tuesday night. 43

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 65 66 41 65 42 / 30 50 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 69 77 46 66 46 / 60 60 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 68 78 53 65 54 / 50 70 30 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Friday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM . Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . Overpeck SHORT TERM . 43 LONG TERM . 31 AVIATION . Luchs MARINE . 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 2 mi56 min SSE 8 G 9.9 69°F 63°F1013.9 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 13 mi56 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 68°F 64°F1013 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 14 mi56 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 72°F 67°F1013.4 hPa
GRRT2 25 mi56 min S 5.1 G 7 69°F 66°F1013.5 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 26 mi56 min SSE 7 G 8 71°F 64°F1013 hPa
GTOT2 27 mi56 min S 1.9 G 6 71°F 64°F1013.9 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 28 mi50 min SSE 7 G 8 69°F 64°F1014.3 hPa (-0.0)
HIST2 33 mi56 min SSE 4.1 G 6 69°F 63°F1013.8 hPa
LUIT2 41 mi50 min E 1.9 G 1.9 70°F 65°F1014.9 hPa (-0.5)
KXIH 42 mi15 min S 12 73°F 70°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 43 mi30 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX9 mi2 hrsSSW 44.00 miLight Rain70°F68°F94%1013.9 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX14 mi57 minSSW 55.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist73°F70°F90%1014.3 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi57 minSSW 38.00 miOvercast73°F70°F90%1014.2 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX21 mi55 minN 08.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE8SE9SE7--SE6SE9SE13SE12SE13SE14SE14--SE10SE8--SE10SE8SE6SE10S14
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE6SE7SE7SE14SE14SE13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSE5SE5SE5S5S7SE5--SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:25 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:50 AM CST     1.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:20 PM CST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:27 PM CST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.80.911.11.11.110.90.70.60.50.40.40.50.60.80.90.9110.90.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:03 AM CST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:25 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:40 AM CST     0.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:49 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:31 PM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:22 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM CST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.20.30.40.50.60.60.60.50.40.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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