Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gainesville, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 29, 2021 12:10 PM EDT (16:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:13PMMoonset 11:08AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202107292200;;643303 Fzus52 Kjax 291328 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 928 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-292200- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 928 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming north late in the morning, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 928 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis.. High pressure will persist south of the local waters through the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the north early next week bringing an increase in winds and rain chances.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 29, 2021 at 1200 utc... 63 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 67 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 70 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 76 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gainesville, FL
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location: 29.71, -82.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 291354 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 954 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

. WARMING TREND BEGINS FOR SE GA TODAY .

UPDATE.

A sprawling mid level ridge centered over the central CONUS extended a ridge axis across GA, with subsidence under this dome lowering PWATs to < 1.4 inches per latest GOES-16 imagery. Deeper moisture continued near and south of the I-10 corridor across NE FL where the JAX 12z RAOB indicated still near 2 inches of PWAT and barely 5 kts of steering flow as an elongated mid/upper trough, almost a COL region, slowly edged southward over NE FL. Upper level temps were very warm with stable conditions aloft with 500 mb temps near -4 to -5 deg C and the freezing level over 17 kft. At the surface, a weak trough axis was sliding southward across N FL early this morning, trailed by low stratus that was starting to lift across NE FL and the I-10 corridor.

Into the afternoon, diurnal heating will begin to trigger a few showers along the trough axis across NE FL with deepening convection expected along both sea breezes as they drift inland and interact with the deeper moisture over NE FL and the aforementioned trough axis and outflows. The main convective hazard will be locally heavy, potentially flooding rainfall, given high PWAT, weak storm motion and warm conditions aloft. Deeper convection will slowly 'drift' westward into the evening while fading in coverage and intensity.

Mostly dry and HOT conditions are expected across SE GA, where highs will rise into the mid 90s and with dew pts only mixing down into the low/mid 70s, heat indices will near 105 deg. More convection across NE FL will bring lower daytime temps in the upper 80s to near 90.

The heat will increase across all areas Fri and Sat, with heat advisory conditions expected for some locations as heat index values near 108-112 deg F. Please consider mitigating as much as possible for those sensitive to the heat today, including the elderly, kids, pets and those with increased health risks.

MARINE.

Light west winds this morning 10 kts or less will become ESE this afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Combined seas generally 2 ft or less, with 3 ft seas at times over the outer waters.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk today.

FIRE WEATHER.

Low daytime dispersion today across inland NE FL and portions of the Okefenokee NWR near the meandering surface trough.

HYDROLOGY.

The Santa Fe and St. Marys river basins continued in Minor Flood.

PREV DISCUSSION [742 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Today through Tonight]. Patchy early morning fog is possible over inland se Ga as high cloudiness shifts south and skies clear. A strong ridge aloft centered over the central U.S. will build into the se states today. Dry air aloft and subsidence will spread into south Georgia along the ridge axis which will keep se Ga dry today. A surface trough moving south across ne Fl and seabreezes moving inland will help produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over inland areas of ne Fl. A weak steering flow and PWATs at 2+" will again result in areas of locally heavy rainfall this afternoon mainly south of the I-10 corridor. Hot and humid conditions will continue with heat indices reaching near 105F this afternoon. Convection will die out this evening with humid conditions overnight.

SHORT TERM. /Friday through Sunday/ . Through this period, a subtropical high pressure ridge center remains centered well into the Atlantic with associated ridge axis suppressed across the southern FL peninsula while a frontal zone remains situated northwest of the region. This patten will provide for a southwest flow regime, with the Gulf sea breeze most active as it pushes inland through the day. The east coast sea breeze will struggle to get much past I95 during the afternoons this period due to the southwest flow. With this pattern will focus greatest convective chances inland on the Gulf sea breeze.

On Friday, for this time of year, precipitable water values will be lower than normal due to the northwesterly flow aloft. PWATS Friday will be between 1.45 and 1.55 north of I-10 with best moisture over north central FL with values between 1.55 and 1.75 inches. This is where isolated to scattered storms will occur along the west coast sea breeze.

On Saturday, a predominant westerly wind will persist through the profile with pwat values increasing between 1.75 and 1.95 inches, which will equate to widely scattered to scattered showers across the region.

On Sunday, moisture levels slightly with PWATs increasing to above 2 inches as a stronger frontal boundary moves into northern Georgia. This will allow an open stream of Gulf moisture to stream into the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms with coverage more numerous over interior southeast Georgia and Suwannee Valley.

Friday into this weekend we look to have hot and muggy days with heat indices peaking out between 107 and 112 each afternoon (advisory range) with highs in the mid to upper 90s as dewpoints remain in the muggy mid to upper 70s without much mixing out of moisture in the afternoon. Drink plenty of water, wear loose fitting clothing, check on pets and the elderly and those without air conditioning. Be mindful of work/rest cycles as well and spend time in shade or air conditioning and seek medical help if experiencing symptoms of heat stress/exhaustion.

LONG TERM. /Sunday night through Wednesday/ . Another upper trough and weak frontal boundary moves into the southeast U.S. for the first part of next week. This will push the ridge over southern Florida once again and also bring increasing moisture to the region. The Gulf sea breeze being most active, as east coast sea breeze largely remains pinned near the coast due to southwest flow. Above normal chances (likely to categorical) for convection this period, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Toward midweek, there is increased shear across the region, particularly across SE GA with some stronger to marginally severe weather possible. Temperatures will trend near normal at night. Highs will trend from near normal Monday to a little below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Friday]

Low stratus with IFR to LIFR restrictions was funneling southward across the terminals early this morning on the north side of a diffuse surface trough that extended across NE FL. These restrictions will persist over the next couple of hours under light and variable winds < 5 kts, then with insolation the low deck is expected to begin to lift to MVFR in the 13-15z timeframe, but could linger a little longer near the Atlantic coastal terminals SSI and SGJ through late morning.

With the trough axis lingering over NE FL today and sea breeze forcing (which could be delayed along the Atlantic coast with low stratus), scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop into the afternoon. Included VCSH for all coastal zones with VCTS at VQQ and GNV where boundary collisions will focus. Convection will fade inland this evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight.

With drier mid and upper level air in place, better radiational cooling conditions will enable late night and early morning fog and low stratus to form in some areas through 12z Friday. At this time, indicated the potential for restrictions to MVFR at GNV and VQQ after 08z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 95 73 98 77 96 / 0 0 10 0 40 SSI 89 77 95 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 20 JAX 90 74 96 77 97 / 10 10 10 0 30 SGJ 87 74 94 77 95 / 20 0 10 0 30 GNV 88 73 93 76 94 / 50 20 20 0 30 OCF 88 73 93 76 94 / 60 30 30 0 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BKBF1 46 mi52 min 84°F 1017.6 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 55 mi70 min WSW 4.1 G 6 85°F 1017.9 hPa (+1.3)78°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 56 mi70 min S 1.9 G 2.9 86°F 83°F1018 hPa (+1.7)78°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 57 mi85 min WNW 1.9 84°F 1018 hPa78°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gainesville Regional Airport, FL3 mi17 minVar 310.00 miFair87°F75°F67%1018 hPa
Keystone Airpark, FL16 mi15 minN 09.00 miOvercast84°F79°F84%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGNV

Wind History from GNV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5CalmSW7CalmCalmSE3SE4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3W3NE3CalmCalmW3NW533
1 day agoW6NW11
G21
SE9CalmCalmCalmS6SW6W3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmSW3W8W5W6
2 days agoNW85NW6N7N7N6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W3CalmW3SW4N3CalmSE3NW4W5W4W64

Tide / Current Tables for Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida (3)
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Buffalo Bluff
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Thu -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:07 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:06 PM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20.10.10.30.50.80.910.90.70.60.40.20.10.10.10.40.60.80.90.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida
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Buffalo Bluff
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EDT     2.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:48 PM EDT     2.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.92.92.82.93.13.33.53.63.63.63.43.132.92.82.82.93.23.43.53.63.63.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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