Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
West University Place, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday April 18, 2021 4:24 PM CDT (21:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:17AMMoonset 12:01AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 312 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 18 2021
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..West winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening and overnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 312 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 18 2021
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate north to northeast winds will continue to diminish throughout the afternoon hours with light to moderate northeast winds expected for tonight through Monday. Wave heights will remain near 5 to 6 feet through tonight. Surface high pressure moves over the area on Monday inducing an easterly flow Monday afternoon and transitioning to southeasterly flow by Tuesday as the high moves off to the east. A cold front will cross the coastal waters Tuesday night with moderate northerly flow prevailing in its wake.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West University Place, TX
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location: 29.72, -95.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 181933 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 233 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

DISCUSSION.

SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night].

Zonal flow aloft will continue to bring different impulses of energy across the region, producing enough forcing for some passing showers. Most of the saturated layer remains at 750 mb or above with sfc dewpoints in the 40s; therefore, drier air at low levels should keep this activity as sprinkles or virga. The exception will be over the Gulf waters with scattered light rain but impacts are minimal. Surface high pressure over west TX pushes off any remaining precipitation early this evening and leads to decreasing cloud cover overnight. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for radiational cooling into Monday morning. Overnight lows will range in the 40s and 50s.

Sfc high slides eastward into the region by Monday, resulting in northeast to easterly flow by Monday afternoon. Low-level moisture and warmer airmass will filter in, though temperatures will still remain slightly below normal for this time of year. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Another chilly night is expected Monday night into Tuesday, though lows will be a few degrees warmer than tonight given onshore flow and increasing cloud cover. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday].

The bulk of the long term period will feature fair weather and relatively dry conditions until onshore flow returns later in the week, increasing humidity and moisture ahead of a weekend front that will bring the only real chance of showers and storms in this period.

Now, despite the "lack" of weather, that doesn't actually mean there'll be a lack of weather. Indeed, on Tuesday morning, a front will be heading through North Texas on its way to the coast. Driven by high with a central pressure in the 1025-1030 range, and some decently cold air for mid-late April, it should make its way through the area pretty easily. Of course, the deep moisture just won't be there, with progged precipitable water values maybe almost sorta but probably not reaching an inch, so this will be a dry frontal passage when the front reaches our northern border late Tuesday afternoon, and makes its way to the coast through the night.

While already dry to begin with, conditions will get even drier for the midweek stretch as the Plains high takes command. Don't be surprised to see very low humidity on Wednesday, with dewpoints falling into the low 30s inland. The dry air and northerly winds should also make for an unseasonably cool night on Tuesday night, with lows in the northern reaches of our area falling to around 40 degrees. Even at the coast, lows in the 50s are expected. Enjoy it while you can get it.

Winds gradually shift back to become more onshore on Thursday as the high moves off to the east. It's probably no surprise that a gradual warming trend to temperatures better matching the seasonal average will follow. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be digging into the Desert Southwest, and will induce lee cyclogenesis in eastern New Mexico on Friday. That low will make its way towards the Ohio Valley this weekend, and we can look forward to another frontal passage when the attached cold front sweeps through the area very late Friday night and/or Saturday morning.

With the trough and surface low so far south, the pressure gradient should allow for moderate to gusty winds to develop ahead of the front, and should really amplify moisture return Thursday and Friday, and precipitable water looks to be in the ballpark of 1.9 inches when our rain potential is maximized.

Though there's a pretty solid consensus on the big picture here, there are still a lot of details that are fuzzy, and could potentially have a decisive impact on sensible weather this weekend. We continue to see deterministic models fall into one of two typical springtime scenarios: the Euroish solution, which more definitively drives a front through, allowing for rain to wrap up more quickly as high pressure settles in. The other idea is to develop a coastal trough, which will hang up the front and keep it lingering in the area, dragging rain potential almost entirely through the weekend. The GFS in particular continues to show heavy rain bullseyes on this surface trough, though there's not a lot of consistency in exactly when or where this would occur.

Taking a more holistic look, the NBM now has almost a 1 in 3 chance of exceeding an inch of rain on Friday, with a half-inch now just a shade more likely than not. The deterministic QPF for IAH on Friday is 1.5 inches, decidedly higher than the half-inch amount of the median value. While a big difference, this is probably not a huge surprise when considering potential for convection on the Gulf Coast. We can take this as a signal that if we do get a convective burst on this front, we should expect more rain than if it does not happen.

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance].

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Spotty showers will be possible this afternoon, but coverage/intensity should be minimal. Cloud cover decreases tonight, with only FEW to SCT high clouds prevailing through the period under light and variable winds.

MARINE.

Moderate northerly to northeasterly flow continues to prevail in the offshore waters with seas persisting around 6 to 7 feet through the afternoon hours. Winds and seas will gradually diminish going into the evening/overnight hours. Surface high pressure will move over the area by Monday afternoon and bring a brief transition to easterly flow for the coastal waters. By Monday night, the flow becomes southeasterly as the high pushes off to the east. Onshore flow will persist through Tuesday night when the next cold front will push through the coastal waters. Moderate offshore flow will return in the wake of this front with caution to advisory conditions likely through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER.

The early part of this week looks to feature some unseasonably dry air for inland Southeast Texas. The brief period of onshore winds Monday night into Tuesday isn't likely to help things much either before a dry frontal passage Tuesday evening. The timing of the front will certainly help mitigate fire weather concerns, but the wind shift with a lack of precipitation will be something to keep an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday. While RH will recover Tuesday night after sunset, the influx of dry air behind the front will make for max RH numbers considerably lower (60-70 percent) than typical in our area (frequently near 100 percent).

In the wake of the front, we can expect a surge of dry air not commonly associated with the spring. Wednesday may well see critically low humidity for much of the inland area, and uncommonly dry air all the way to the coast. Again, the timing of the front overnight will help mitigate concerns as winds will not be quite as strong on Wednesday than they could be. Still, the relative uncommon forecast should be a cause for alertness with this frontal passage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 46 74 50 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 50 74 55 81 48 / 0 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 72 63 76 56 / 0 0 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM . Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM . Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.



SHORT TERM . 05 LONG TERM . Luchs AVIATION . 05 MARINE . Batiste FIRE WEATHER . Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 5 mi55 min N 2.9 G 7 64°F 73°F1017.3 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 20 mi55 min NNW 9.9 G 14 63°F 70°F1017.7 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 29 mi55 min N 11 G 13 64°F 65°F1017.1 hPa
GRRT2 38 mi55 min NNE 13 G 17 64°F 65°F1016.8 hPa
GTOT2 41 mi55 min N 12 G 16 63°F 68°F1017.1 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 42 mi55 min N 12 G 15 62°F 66°F1016.1 hPa
LUIT2 46 mi55 min NNW 13 G 16 64°F 69°F1016.9 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 47 mi55 min NNW 9.9 G 13 63°F 65°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Dunn Helistop, TX2 mi30 minNNW 9 G 1910.00 miFair63°F41°F45%1017.3 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX6 mi32 minNNW 9 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F44°F41%1017.9 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi35 minNNW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F45°F46%1017.6 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi32 minN 910.00 miFair66°F43°F43%1017.8 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX16 mi30 minNNW 810.00 miFair67°F46°F46%1018.3 hPa
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX17 mi32 minNNW 12 G 1910.00 miFair68°F45°F44%1017.7 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX17 mi32 minNNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F44°F45%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCJ

Wind History from MCJ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM CDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:35 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.60.40.20.10.10.10.10.30.40.70.911.21.21.31.31.31.31.21.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:39 PM CDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.50.40.20.10-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.40.50.60.70.70.80.80.80.80.7

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