Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 3:41 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 040556 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1256 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

We have allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire. The lone severe storm over northeast Edwards County is weakening as it moves into a more stable area.

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS
Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for all counties in the watch but Val Verde. A severe storm in Kimble County is moving slowly south and will move into portions of northwest Kerr and northeast Edwards Counties over the next hour. Eventual weakening should take place as the storm encounter increasing convective inhibition.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our CWA There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA We have chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA A cold front will drop through north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to early overnight.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day, there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Cirrus shield from earlier convection continues to move eastward as low clouds expand westward. We have made minor adjustments to the forecast over the next few hours as upper level clouds may delay the onset of IFR along the I-35 corridor. Otherwise, no significant changes have been made through the overnight hours with IFR cigs and patchy fog developing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 85 69 82 71 / 20 70 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 68 82 70 / 10 60 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 71 84 71 / 10 60 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 82 67 80 70 / 30 70 60 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 72 87 74 / 30 70 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 67 80 69 / 30 70 60 20 Hondo Muni Airport 88 69 83 70 / 20 70 60 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 69 83 70 / 10 60 60 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 72 82 72 / 10 40 50 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 71 83 72 / 10 60 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 89 72 85 73 / 10 60 60 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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