Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Canyon Lake, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday July 29, 2021 10:07 AM CDT (15:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:18PMMoonset 11:15AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canyon Lake, TX
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location: 29.86, -98.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 291117 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 617 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

AVIATION. Some low clouds have developed south of the San Antonio area and may spread farther north. We have included MVFR ceilings intermittently at the San Antonio terminals for the next few hours. Otherwise, all area airports will be VFR through the coming period. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the Austin and San Antonio areas, but probabilities are too low to include any mention in the TAFs. Any storms will not lower the category.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday) .

Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a mid-level low over northern Mexico. The surface pressure field is not well defined and winds across our CWA were generally light and variable. The airmass remains warm and moist with temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints ranging from the middle 60s to the middle 70s. The upper low will continue to move away toward the west today leaving a weakness in the ridge. With daytime heating there will be low chances for convection this afternoon. The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms will be over the eastern half of the CWA where the deepest moisture will reside. Brief heavy downpours will be possible, but steady storm movement will keep rainfall totals modest. Temperatures will start to rebound today with highs a couple of degrees warmer that yesterday. Convection will end with the loss of heating leading to another dry, warm night. Friday is looking very similar to today. Afternoon convection will be possible again over the eastern half of the area with persistent southeasterly flow and strong daytime heating. Brief heavy down pours will be possible again. Temperatures will climb another degree or two from today's highs.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday) .

By 00Z Saturday the mid level low over Mexico will have lost much of the momentum in pooling moisture over South Central TX, and mid level ridging becomes well established over Central TX for daytime Saturday. Aside from a few pockets of convection in the La Grange/Halletsville areas Saturday afternoon, the trend toward hotter/drier air carries through the weekend for most of the area. A developing northerly flow pattern aloft over the high plains early Sunday begins to pool moisture over NW TX and sends instability into West Central TX by 00Z Monday. Initially, the pooled moisture zone is fairly broad, so will lean conservative for Sunday night into early Monday but run closer to the guidance blends for late Monday into early Tuesday. With the daily temperature trends going up for Sunday and remaining plenty warm for Monday, we could see another event where the storms chase the heat in the late afternoon and roll through the area via strong outflows and altering the focus as the event played out on Monday July 19th.

Thus as we get closer to this pattern one of the forecast periods will likely stand out as the better rain chance period over the others and the scattering of 20-40 percent chance periods could then be adjusted downward for the remainder of the work week. If the initial southward push of the moisture convergence area doesn't generate a significant round of outflow driven storms Sunday night into Tuesday, then there could be the potential for daily rain chances being more elevated as most of the deterministic 00Z runs show a shortwave feature dropping south into NW TX by early Wednesday. In any event, if the elevated opportunities for rain do not materialize next week, the northerly flow pattern and slight boost in cumulus clouds should account for a daytime temperature drop back to near normals and off the hottest day of the week which we think will be Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Austin Camp Mabry 95 76 96 76 97 / 20 - 20 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 75 96 76 97 / 20 - 20 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 74 96 75 97 / 20 - 20 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 94 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 20 0 - Del Rio Intl Airport 100 77 100 78 101 / - - - - - Georgetown Muni Airport 95 75 96 75 97 / 20 - 20 0 - Hondo Muni Airport 96 74 96 75 97 / 10 - 20 - - San Marcos Muni Airport 96 74 96 75 97 / 20 - 20 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 77 96 77 97 / 30 - 20 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 95 76 95 / 20 - 20 - 10 Stinson Muni Airport 96 77 97 78 98 / 20 - 20 - 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Short-Term/Aviation . 05 Long-Term . Oaks


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Braunfels Regional Airport, TX14 mi76 minNW 510.00 miFair82°F75°F79%1017 hPa
San Marcos, San Marcos Municipal Airport, TX18 mi71 minVar 310.00 miFair83°F77°F82%1017.9 hPa
Randolph Air Force Base, TX22 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair82°F74°F77%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBAZ

Wind History from BAZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm66SW4SE6
G14
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G17
SE8E5SE6CalmS4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NW5Calm
1 day agoW7----55W5S73S4S4SE6S5S5S3S6SW4SW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW4S6
2 days agoSW7Calm34CalmS3S4SW8
G14
S8S5S5S4CalmSE3S6SW5SW5SW5SW5SW4S3CalmW7W5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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