Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Augustine South, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:56PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 11:05 PM EDT (03:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:12PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202104220945;;919341 Fzus52 Kjax 220033 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 833 Pm Edt Wed Apr 21 2021 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-220945- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 833 Pm Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..West winds around 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots in the late evening. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 833 Pm Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis.. A dry cold front will move south of the waters this evening, resulting in winds shifting to the north with strengthening speeds overnight. High pressure will then weaken as it settles over our area by Thursday afternoon, with winds shifting to an onshore direction and speeds gradually diminishing. High pressure will then shift east of the carolina coast on Friday as low pressure organizes over northern texas, creating gradually strengthening southeasterly winds Friday night and then increasing southerly winds on Saturday, with small craft advisory conditions expected. Low pressure will then strengthen as it pivots northeastward across the ozarks on Friday night and then the tennessee and ohio valleys on Saturday, driving a strong cold front eastward across our local waters by early Sunday morning. Strong Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this frontal passage late on Saturday afternoon through the evening hours.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of apr 20, 2021 at 1200 utc... 67 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 76 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 84 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 92 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Augustine South, FL
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location: 29.87, -81.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 220036 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 836 PM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

UPDATE.

A dry cold front pushing across northeast Florida this evening will bring in cooler temperatures overnight. Overnight lows will be 10-15 degrees colder than Wednesday morning, with temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 40s across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley to the mid 50s for the beaches of northeast Florida. Westerly winds will become northwest to north overnight 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts, which will make it feel even colder in the upper 30s to lower 40s across much of the interior.

PREV DISCUSSION [720 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Thursday].

The frontal boundary will then move eastward across our area before sunset, bringing a shot of late Spring cold air advection to our region overnight as winds shift to northerly late this evening. Strengthening low pressure over coastal New England will continue to tighten our local pressure gradient, and breezy to near windy conditions will develop along the I-95 corridor towards midnight, with gusts of 20-25 mph during the predawn hours at coastal locations. Beneath clear skies, winds at inland locations will remain in the 5-10 mph range overnight and will add to the chill in the air, as lows fall to the low and mid 40s for locations along and north of Interstate 10, with upper 40s to around 50 elsewhere, except low to mid 50s along the coast.

High pressure will then gradually weaken as it settles over GA on Thursday afternoon, resulting in low level winds quickly veering to northeasterly during the mid to late morning hours. Our local pressure gradient will steadily loosen throughout the day, resulting in northeasterly winds decreasing back to the 10 mph range along the I-95 corridor by early afternoon. Despite full sunshine, onshore winds will keep coastal highs mostly in the 60s, while many inland locations reach the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM [Thursday Night through Friday Night].

Troughing aloft along the U.S. eastern seaboard will progress offshore on Thursday evening, creating a dry but increasingly fast west-northwesterly flow pattern aloft that will back to west- southwesterly by Friday evening downstream of an amplifying trough that will be progressing from the Desert Southwest on Friday into the Southern Plains by Friday night. Strengthening flow aloft could bring thin cirrus overhead during the overnight hours on Thursday, but a lingering dry air mass will still allow lows to fall below late April climatology, with inland lows falling to the mid 40s for inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley, ranging to the mid 50s at coastal locations in northeast FL, where a light onshore breeze will persist overnight.

Low level flow will then veer to southeasterly by Friday afternoon, with rising heights aloft allowing highs to climb back to the lower 80s along the I-75 corridor, while breezy onshore winds keep highs in the 70s along the I-95 corridor. Cloud cover should gradually thicken on Friday night as warm frontogenesis takes shape over the FL panhandle, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the southern FL peninsula. Strengthening isentropic lift overnight may develop a few showers across inland southeast GA, especially during the predawn hours as low pressure organizes over the lower Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks. Lows will only fall to the lower 60s inland and the mid 60s at coastal locations, where a tightening pressure gradient will likely create breezy southeasterly winds during the evening and overnight hours.

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday].

There will be a risk of severe weather this weekend, primarily across southeast GA and portions of inland northeast FL along and north of I-10.

As we head into the weekend, a favorable setup for severe weather is expected as an upper-level shortwave trough ejects from the Mississippi valley toward the southern Appalachians, becoming negatively tilted as it does so. A potent surface low (near 1000 mb) will trail beneath the upper trough but may weaken as it shifts toward the Appalachians on Saturday. Despite potential weakening, the mass response around the low will encourage a 50-70 knot low- level jet, leading to a strong area of low-level/bulk shear across southern GA.

There remains uncertainity in where the associated surface warm front will set up, with medium-range guidance surging it northward across northeast FL and southeast GA through the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday. Due to the increasing negative tilt by the upper trough, cooling temps aloft will massage mid-level lapse rates through the morning hours, resulting in a rapid instability across the region Saturday afternoon. Sufficient CAPE is expected (between 1500 to potentially 2000 Joules) across the area by the late afternoon hours.

Under the parameter space outlined above, severe weather will be favored across southeast GA where the stronger shear will overlap convergence in the vicinity of the lifting warm front. While the likelihood of severe storms will be lower across northeast FL, it will not be zero; modest bulk shear across the broadening warm sector will lead to a conditional severe risk, which includes potential for strong winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Despite loss of heating, severe weather risk may continue into the evening Saturday as convection over the northeastern GOMEX is steered inland toward the Suwannee Valley areas. A tongue of moisture (PWATs ranging between 1.4-1.6") will elongate ahead of the attendant cold front, bringing an additional threat of heavy rainfall with storms on Saturday.

Fairly decent model agreement that the lagging cold front will push into the region early Sunday, continuing rain/storm chances through the morning hours. The front will continue southward Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. Deep-layer ridging and surface high pressure is progged to dominate through the middle of next week. This will lead to dry, mostly sunny conditions and increasing temps with highs reaching toward the 90s by Wednesday.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Friday]

A cold front will move through the TAF sites this evening, and winds will shift to the northwest and north tonight. Winds will remain elevated around 10-15 knots overnight behind the front. Winds will shift to the northeast on Thursday as high pressure builds towards the area.

MARINE.

A dry cold front will move across our local waters early this evening, resulting in winds shifting to northerly with strengthening speeds overnight. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all of our local waters from late this evening through the mid-morning hours on Thursday. Seas overnight will build to 4-6 feet offshore and 3-4 feet near shore. High pressure will then weaken as it settles over our area by Thursday afternoon, with winds shifting to an onshore direction and speeds gradually diminishing. Seas will fall below Caution levels offshore by early Thursday evening.

High pressure will then shift east of the Carolina coast on Friday as low pressure organizes over northern Texas, creating gradually strengthening southeasterly winds on Friday night and then increasing southerly winds on Saturday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Low pressure will then strengthen as it pivots northeastward across the Ozarks on Friday night and then the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Saturday, driving a strong cold front eastward across our local waters by early Sunday morning. Strong thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this frontal passage late on Saturday afternoon through the evening hours.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds will create a moderate risk at all area beaches on Thursday. Persistent onshore winds will keep at least a low-end moderate risk in place at all beaches on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER.

Elevated fire danger conditions will continue through early this evening across southeast GA, where gusty westerly surface and transport winds will combine with critically low humidity values and high dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will shift to northerly overnight and will remain breezy and gusty at coastal locations. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly shortly after sunrise on Thursday, with breezy conditions continuing through early afternoon at coastal locations, followed by speeds decreasing during the afternoon hours, especially at inland locations. A dry air mass will prevail on Thursday, with long durations of critically low humidity values expected throughout inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. Surface and transport winds will then shift to southeasterly by Thursday night and Friday. Long durations of critically low humidity values are expected across portions of inland southeast GA on Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY.

Runoff from weekend rainfall will result in portions of the lower Santa Fe River reaching or briefly exceeding flood stage on Thursday and Friday, particularly in the vicinity of O'Leno State Park.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 42 70 44 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 20 SSI 49 65 53 71 64 / 0 0 0 0 20 JAX 48 70 49 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 SGJ 55 68 56 74 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 GNV 48 74 51 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 OCF 51 76 54 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 3 mi66 min W 6 G 8 73°F 71°F1015.3 hPa (+1.8)54°F
41117 15 mi40 min 70°F1 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 15 mi81 min W 1.9 72°F 1015 hPa56°F
BKBF1 30 mi48 min 73°F 1015.8 hPa
LTJF1 36 mi48 min 74°F 51°F
JXUF1 37 mi48 min 74°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 37 mi48 min WNW 7 G 8.9 72°F 72°F1016.1 hPa
BLIF1 38 mi48 min WNW 7 G 11 74°F 1016.7 hPa51°F
DMSF1 38 mi48 min 73°F
NFDF1 40 mi48 min W 1 G 4.1 71°F 1015.7 hPa50°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL7 mi70 minW 310.00 miFair71°F57°F61%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGJ

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4W5W3SW4W4W5W6SW6W8W5NW10NW11
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N4NE7N7NE9NE10NE10SE9SE8SE11SE8SE8SE6SE5SE4CalmCalm
2 days agoS4S3SW3SW4SW6W7NW8
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W7W4W5NW8NW9NW6NE7NE5E7E6E8SE11SE9SE6SE4S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine, city dock, Florida (2)
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St. Augustine
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Wed -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:46 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:30 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:22 PM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:46 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.23.13.94.44.54.33.72.821.30.90.91.52.33.13.74.14.13.732.11.40.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for East Tocoi, St. Johns River, Florida (2)
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East Tocoi
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:33 AM EDT     4.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:29 AM EDT     5.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:16 PM EDT     4.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.55.35.15.1555.15.45.65.75.85.85.75.55.35.25.1555.25.45.65.75.7

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