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Marine Weather and Tides Violet, LA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:24AM

Sunset 7:32PM

Wednesday April 21, 2021 5:36 AM CDT (10:36 UTC)

Moonrise 1:47PM

Moonset 3:02AM

Illumination 70%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA

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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 210857 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 357 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Cold front racing across the area at about 40 mph early this morning, and likely to be clear of all of our land areas, and much of our coastal water, before sunrise. Other than a few mid-level clouds, the only noticeable effects of the front will be gusty winds and noticeably colder temperatures. At 3 AM CDT, temperatures generally ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s, but wouldn't doubt that the temperature in Wilkinson County, MS is in the upper 40s already. Likely to be seeing brief wind gusts around 25 mph behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM (through Friday night).

Main impactful weather over the next few days will be breezy to windy conditions with the cold frontal passage this morning, and the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall Friday night.

As noted in the synopsis, cold front is racing across the area early this morning. We may need a brief wind advisory downwind of Lake Pontchartrain (New Orleans metro) for a few hours this morning, will monitor observations behind the front over the lake over the next 90 minutes, and issue if needed prior to the morning rush hour.

Looking at high temperatures today 10 or more degrees cooler than yesterday, with overnight lows into Thursday morning upper 30s far north to around 50 south. Temperatures begin to moderate on Thursday by a few degrees late in the day as high pressure shifts to the east of the area.

Moisture increases Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave exits the southern Rockies. Could see some showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two by late in the day Friday. Main concern will be overnight Friday night as the shortwave coming out of the Rockies begins to take on a slightly negative tilt. As the low level jet increases, the environment will become favorable for severe weather in the warm sector of the system across northwest sections of the area by late in the night, per the Slight Risk in SPC's SWODY3. While the heaviest rain is likely to be focused to the north of the warm front (likely just north of our area), precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches could allow a quick 1-2 inches of rain, primarily north of the Interstate 10/12 corridors. Convection is likely to be near a McComb-Baton Rouge line around sunrise Saturday. 35

LONG TERM (Saturday and beyond).

A slightly negatively tilted upper level trough axis and surface front will be sweeping east across the forecast area Saturday morning. There will likely be a line of convection affecting areas mainly to the east of the I-55 corridor in Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi through the morning hours. Model sounding review indicates a fair degree of directional and speed shear will be in place with 0-3km storm relative helicity of up to 300m2/s2 and effective layer shear of 50 to 60 knots possible over portions of coastal Mississippi and the New Orleans metro area in the early to mid-morning hours. This degree of directional and speed shear would support the development of quasi-linear convective systems and potentially a few supercells in advance of the line. Mid-level lapse rates are also quite steep and wet bulb zero heights are fairly low at less than 10,000 feet. These parameters would support a hail risk, and thus all convective modes will be possible Saturday morning.

Conditions should quickly improve in the afternoon hours as a dry slot of air in the mid-levels pushes into the region from the west. Clearing skies and drier conditions will develop from west to east. By Saturday evening, mainly clear skies and little to no POP should remain over the CWA. This drying is evident in the precipitable water profiles which are projected to fall over half an inch from the morning through the evening hours. Temperatures will also warm in the wake of the front as strong subsidence takes hold and highs are expected to climb into the lower to middle 80s by Saturday afternoon.

Deep layer ridging will come to dominate the Gulf South on Sunday and this ridging will remain in full control of the region through Monday night. Strong subsidence throughout the atmospheric column will keep skies clear, humidity values low, and promote a larger than average diurnal range. Highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s each day and overnight lows will dip into the 50s and lower 60s.

The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on Tuesday as a strong longwave trough moves into the Four Corners states. A deep layer southerly flow regime will develop over the area and moisture should gradually increase across the area through the day. A very strong mid-level capping inversion will remain in place on Tuesday, so only an increase in strato-cumulus development is expected. There may be a very isolated marine layer shower that forms during peak heating hours, but the risk is too low to mention at this time. Temperatures will above average with highs in the mid 80s forecast.

PG

AVIATION (Valid through 12z Thursday).

No significant changes in thinking from the evening TAF packages. Winds are already shifting north, and will be north at all terminals prior to the 12z package issuance. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots can be expected with the strongest wind gusts occurring at KNEW this morning. Winds should relax a bit after 18z with gusts of 15 to 20 knots more likely. Otherwise, a dry airmass will keep VFR conditions in place through Thursday. PG/35

MARINE.

Cold front will race through the coastal waters this morning. Cold air advection will transport stronger winds to the surface this morning, and Small Craft Advisory through 18z looks on track. Will follow that with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the remainder of the afternoon. Those headlines will likely need to be continued overnight tonight for most or all of the coastal waters. Any periods where winds will be below 15 knots will be brief for most of the open waters over the next several days, with no real respite until about Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 65 39 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 67 42 71 55 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 70 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 69 51 71 59 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 70 44 69 54 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 70 40 70 50 / 0 0 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA	7 mi	49 min	W 11 G 14	65°F	72°F		1017.6 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA	22 mi	49 min	N 14 G 19	62°F	71°F		1017.4 hPa
CARL1	23 mi	49 min			65°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS	32 mi	49 min	NW 12 G 15	69°F	67°F
FREL1	39 mi	49 min	NNW 5.1 G 8.9	59°F			1017.6 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA	40 mi	49 min	NW 2.9 G 8	62°F	69°F		1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA

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6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

Last 24hr

N6

N8

N9

N9

N10

NE7

N9

N9

NW8

NW5

N1

N2

SE7

S7

S5

S5

SW6

SW7

SW8

SW8

SW6

W8

W9

W12

1 day ago

N18

N16

N13 G16

N14 G18

N11

N12

N11

N8

NE4

N2

W2

NW1

NW2

S5

S6

SW4

SW2

W3

W4

W5

SW5

S1

NW3

N7

2 days ago

N16

N14

N15

NE15

N15

N14

NE12 G15

N7

N4

NW7

NW12

NW11

NW12

NW11

NW11 G15

NW11

NW12 G15

NW13

NW18

N19 G24

N21

N20

N20

N18 G22

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA	18 mi	44 min	N 18	10.00 mi	Fair and Breezy	68°F	55°F	63%	1017.6 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA	20 mi	42 min	WNW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	58°F	96%	1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

Last 24hr

NE7

NE6

N11

NE11

NE8

NE8

N6

N4

NW5

NW6

NW3

Calm

W4

W4

S4

S4

SW9

SW9

SW9

W12

W12

W13

W15

N18

1 day ago

N16

N18

N13

NE13

NE11

N12

NE10

N8

N7

W3

W6

NW6

NW5

W5

W5

W3

Calm

SW3

SW4

W4

W7

N5

N5

N7

2 days ago

N13

N17

N13

NE14

NE11

NE9

N10

N4

NW6

W9

NW12

NW12

NW13

N11

N13

NW15

NW14

NW15

N16

N20

N22

N20

N19

N17

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Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana

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Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana

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Weather Map

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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