Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:41 PM CST (23:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:05PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 300 Pm Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely early in the evening, then showers in the late evening. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers until late afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the late evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 300 Pm Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis..A cold front will continue to sweep through the coastal waters this evening. A low pressure system will then develop over the central gulf of mexico Wednesday night into Thursday. This low pressure system will pass over the gulf waters Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will then build for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 102135 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

SHORT TERM. Strong cold air advection across the tidal lakes and sounds tonight will allow for boundary layer winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts to translate down to the surface tonight. The strongest winds are expected along the immediate coast in Mississippi and coastal Louisiana and across metro New Orleans to the south of Lake Pontchartrain. A wind advisory will be issued for these areas as wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph could occur tonight. The main concern in wind advisory will be high profile vehicles encountering difficult driving conditions in open areas like bridges.

Outside of the wind threat, isentropically induced cloud cover and showers will continue to develop across the forecast area this evening and tonight. A gradual shifting of the main rain band from around Baton Rouge toward the coastal counties and parishes is expected through the night. By tomorrow morning, most of the rain should be offshore with only scattered showers expected along the immediate Louisiana coast. Increased dry air advection and some weak subsidence aloft will bring mostly clear skies and dry weather to the remainder of the forecast area during the day tomorrow. Strong cold air advection will continue, and expect to see temperatures well below normal in the middle to upper 50s tomorrow.

The brief interlude from cloudy and rainy conditions will come to an end on Thursday as a low pressure system develops in the Gulf of Mexico. As the low forms, warm-frontal processes will become dominant. Another isentropically forced cloud cover and rainfall event is expected to take hold Thursday morning and persist into Friday morning as the low tracks just offshore. The coastal waters should be in the warm-sector to the south of the cold front, and some thunderstorm activity will be possible offshore. Temperatures will remain below normal on Thursday with highs only warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s. As the low departs on Friday and drier air begins to move in from the west, gradually clearing skies and decreasing rain chances can be expected. Some moderation in temperatures is also expected as a more Pacific based airmass advects in. Highs should warm into the middle to upper 60s.

LONG TERM. A zonal flow pattern will dominate the Gulf South in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be in control and expect to see partly cloudy skies and dry weather through Sunday night. Temperatures will continue to slowly modify with highs in the upper 60s and lower forecast each day. The drier airmass should allow for a greater diurnal range, and expect to see lows in the 40s over inland areas and the low 50s along the coast both Friday and Saturday nights. Increased onshore flow and moisture advection into the area Sunday night should keep temperatures warmer in the lower to middle 50s.

Model guidance is in good agreement that another positively tilted upper level trough axis will begin to move toward the area on Monday and Tuesday. A deepening low over the Midwest will drive another cold front through the region Monday into Monday night. Conditions look somewhat favorable for a few thunderstorms to develop in advance of the front, but the severe risk looks limited as the strongest dynamics remain well north of the region. Temperatures will remain warmer than average on Monday with highs lower to middle 70s. In the wake of the front on Tuesday, colder air moving in will push highs back below average in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

AVIATION. MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS and occasional lower visibility in SHRA/RA are expected to continue through the afternoon with mainly MVFR expected tonight before improvement to VFR expected mid to late morning on Wednesday. Northerly winds are expected to remain gusty at most airports in the wake of the cold frontal passage through the afternoon and most airports near the coast and tidal lakes through tonight and Wednesday morning. 22/TD

MARINE. Strong cold air advection across the coastal waters will easily transport down boundary layer flow of 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts to the surface through tomorrow. A developing low pressure system in the central Gulf will also keep winds elevated into Thursday. This low pressure system is expected to pass through the eastern waters Thursday night and early Friday. As a result, small craft advisories are in effect due to rough boating conditions through Thursday evening. The pressure gradient will begin to relax on Friday as the low departs and high pressure begins to build in from the west. Winds and seas should decrease to between 10 and 15 knots as the high settles in. Seas should also respond to these lighter winds and fall to between 2 and 4 feet.

DECISION SUPPORT.

DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast Support for the City of New Orleans. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 39 56 39 59 / 100 10 10 30 BTR 41 58 39 59 / 100 10 10 30 ASD 40 58 39 61 / 100 10 10 40 MSY 46 56 47 61 / 100 10 10 40 GPT 42 56 43 60 / 100 10 10 50 PQL 42 57 41 62 / 90 10 10 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ040-058-060>064- 066>070.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-555- 557.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ575-577.

MS . Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ080>082.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-550- 552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ538-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ577.



PG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi78 min N 26 G 31 56°F 66°F1018.5 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi78 min NNE 26 G 30 55°F 63°F1018.4 hPa
CARL1 23 mi72 min 51°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi78 min N 22 G 26 54°F 64°F1019.6 hPa
FREL1 39 mi72 min N 21 G 29 54°F 1018.7 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi78 min NNE 4.1 G 9.9 55°F 65°F1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi49 minNNE 22 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy56°F50°F81%1019.3 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi47 minN 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13S10S12S10S10S11S10S11S11S8S8S9S11S11S12S10S10SW11N17N21N20N24
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1 day agoSE4CalmSE4SE5S6S5S7S6S6S6S7S10S10S10S11S12S13S15
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2 days agoN12N13NE12N8NE6E7E5CalmCalmN3N4NE3N4N5NE7NE7NE5N5N5N7N8N5NE4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:24 AM CST     1.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:42 AM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:05 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.110.80.60.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.30.40.60.70.911.2

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:40 PM CST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:06 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.90.90.80.70.50.40.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.10.20.40.50.60.80.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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