Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM   Moonset 12:42 PM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 256 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog late. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 256 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through early next week on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the southeast united states.

FXUS64 KLIX 011954 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 254 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A fairly strong mid to upper level shortwave ridge axis continues to dominate the Gulf South today and this will continue into the overnight hours. Beneath this mid to upper level ridge, southeast flow off the Gulf of Mexico will continue. This onshore flow regime will continue to pump Gulf moisture into the low levels, and dewpoints will remain elevated in the 60s. This will also limit overnight cooling with lows only falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight. These values are 5 degrees warmer than average. Although conditions do not look as favorable for fog development tonight due to stronger boundary layer winds of around 15 knots and increasing cirrus coverage from storms over Texas, some patchy fog development could occur right around daybreak over inland areas.

Tomorrow will see a fast moving shortwave trough axis push in from Texas. The majority of the forcing with this system will be shunted to the north of the CWA due to the strength of the ridge axis aloft, but weakening band of showers and thunderstorms could push into the northwest third of the CWA tomorrow afternoon. Have bumped PoP values to 50 to 60 percent for areas to the north and west of Baton Rouge where the combination of higher upper level omega and enough cooling aloft to weaken the strong mid-level cap should be in place to support updraft development. Away from this region, the influence of the ridge and resultant subsidence will be strong enough to keep the mid-level cap in place. This is evident by weak mid-level lapse rates of around 5.5-5.7 C/km tomorrow afternoon across coastal Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Fortunately, for the areas that could see some convective activity tomorrow afternoon, shear values will remain weak, and severe storms are not expected. By tomorrow evening, the convective threat will diminish as the shortwave trough pulls to the northeast and a brief period of increased ridging and negative vorticity takes hold of the northwest third of the CWA
Temperatures will be closer to average tomorrow into tomorrow night as increased cloud cover reduces overall solar insolation.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Another shortwave trough will quickly move through the region on Friday, and this trough is expected to impact the area more effectively. This will be due to both the lingering weakness in the ridge from the previous system on Thursday, but also a more southern origination over the Texas coast that will push the core of the shortwave trough the Lower Mississippi Valley. With the core of the shortwave moving more over the region, the mid-level cap will break down more easily, and this will allow for greater MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/KG in the afternoon hours when temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Have went with fairly high PoP of 50 to 70 percent for areas along and north of the I-10 corridor in Southeast Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi where overall forcing and instability will be maximized. A fairly sharp cut-off in convective activity is expected to the south, and have only went with a 20 to 30 PoP for areas around New Orleans and the River Parishes Friday afternoon. PWATS will surge to around 1.75 inches, so some locally heavy downpours will be the primary concern with the deeper convection that develops. Shear values will remain limited, so severe storms are not anticipated on Friday. The trough axis will pull east of the area Friday evening, and a rapid reduction in convective activity is expected during the evening hours.

The mid to upper level ridge will intensify over the region on Saturday and continue to build in strength through early next week. As this occurs, subsidence and warming aloft will begin to greatly limit convective potential over the area and also lead to very warm temperatures for this of year. Saturday will be the last day with any convective threat as another fast moving shortwave feature slides through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but only isolated storms are expected as mid-level lapse rates start to weaken with the strengthening cap in place. By Sunday, any rain chances will be finished with the ridge fully dominating the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s on Saturday, and will further warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Monday.
With onshore flow and higher dewpoints persisting through the extended period, lows will only cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night. It will be a very Summer-like feel out there early next week, and extra caution is advised for those working outdoors due to a lack of acclimation. A few record highs could be approached or broken.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Visible satellite shows a scattered CU field expanding from south to north across the local area. Although a couple sites had MVFR ceilings around noon, should see those lift to VFR within the next hour. The remainder of the day will be VFR with generally light southeasterly winds. Calmer winds expected overnight as well as the potential for the return of radiational fog. Intermittent low CIG/fog impacts are a possibility and thus have been added to the latest TAF issuance.

MARINE
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A persistent surface ridge centered over the Southeast CONUS will keep southeast winds of around 10 knots in place through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will also be fairly persistent at 1 to 3 feet through the period. Overall, no significant concerns to maritime operations are anticipated through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 84 66 80 / 0 50 40 60 BTR 69 85 70 81 / 10 50 30 50 ASD 68 84 69 83 / 0 30 20 30 MSY 71 84 72 82 / 0 30 20 20 GPT 69 81 71 81 / 0 20 10 20 PQL 66 82 69 82 / 0 10 10 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Long Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:23 AM CDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:22 PM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:02 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:34 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

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