Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pearlington, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 4:59PM Friday November 27, 2020 4:37 PM CST (22:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:33PMMoonset 5:00AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 348 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds near 5 knots becoming north in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Chance of showers through the day.
Saturday night..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sunday..East winds near 10 knots becoming south in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers until late afternoon. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 348 Pm Cst Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis..A weak cold front will push south into the nearshore north gulf waters tonight and remain stationary through Saturday night. A low pressure area is expected to develop along the upper texas and southwest louisiana coast Saturday night and then move east to northeast across the central gulf coast region Sunday. The associated strong cold front will move through the region Sunday afternoon. Cold high pressure will build in its wake early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pearlington, MS
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location: 30.14, -89.48     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 271844 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1244 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

UPDATE.

A weak frontal boundary, mostly marked by a temperature gradient, extended west-east across the far upper southeast Louisiana parishes just south of the Mississippi border with low stratus clouds persisting near and north of the boundary. This has kept the more potent thunderstorm cells elevated near the boundary, but a few storms have likely produced some small hail and possibly some gusty winds near 40 mph. The marginal risk of severe thunderstorms extends across most of the forecast area today with the main threats being locally damaging winds and hail up to around quarter size. Convective allowing/hi-res models are in good agreement that the main line and clustering of thunderstorms will work southeast across much of the forecast area reaching the areas near I-10/12/Lake Pontchartrain during the 4pm to 8pm time frame. The one factor possibly not accounted by these models is the thicker multi-layered clouds streaming east along with some stratiform light rain to the southeast of the stronger convection. All in all, it appears the marginal/lower risk of severe looks about right.

Temperatures were warming more than expected where some clearing has taken place over southeast Louisiana areas to the south of Lake Pontchartrain, so updated the forecast for both trends with the showers and thunderstorms and the high temperatures today.

AVIATION.

Most airports were finally seeing the low cloud decks scattering/clearing out leading to MVFR to VFR conditions. These conditions should persist this afternoon, however some variability is likely due to some marine influences and near SHRA/TSRA as precipitation starts to develop southeastward towards more of the TAF airports. Another round of lower clouds and some lower visibilities as well are expected tonight into Saturday morning, although there should not be as much fog, but mostly the low clouds and more precipitation around at least before midnight.

22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 423 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday Night) .

Plenty to talk about with the short term forecast beginning early this morning, so lets dive right into it. Starting off with current conditions, quick surface map overview shows the same pesky front located roughly split right across the CWA along I-10/12 which has begun to slowly surge back north as a warm front. South of the front within the warm sector, surface visibility have been doing down with time as deeper Gulf air pulls back northwards. Look for this front to continue to pick up in forward speed reaching north of our CWA shortly after daybreak, which will allow for ample and widespread development of fog, and areas of dense fog through atleast 8:00AM. Decided to go with a Dense Fog Advisory as guidance (as I am typing this) is in very strong agreement over this idea, with improving conditions expected by mid-morning. Otherwise, expect ongoing spotty, shallow showers generally confined to near the front or just to the north with isentropic ascent increasing with time, but as the warm front surges north of our area, we should see a bit of a window for dry weather later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Meanwhile, taking a look at the upper-level synoptic pattern, we remain situated in a largely quasi-zonal pattern aloft with a subtle mid-level impulse expected to quickly advect east across the area later today. At the surface, expect convection to blossom over time across south-central Texas, extending eastward along the warm front, likely a stationary front by this time situated in south-central MS. Enough dynamic lift, combined with surface convergence will support widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms in this corridor, or generally for areas west of I-55 and north of I-10/12 for today, but will likely sag south with time. This was one scenario first identified yesterday, as there was potential for enough pre-warm frontal isentropically forced convection to create a cold pool, sagging the front back south with time matched with the maximized mid-level dynamics to push this convection across our area later this afternoon and early tonight. CAM's like this idea more today, and had to jump on board along with bumping PoP's above recommended guidance. Additionally, we are under a Marginal Risk today for most of the CWA as there is the potential for a few strong to potentially severe storms. Main concern for today will be for any eastward tracking strong/severe cells and/or line segments developing within the warm sector later this afternoon. Main threat will likely be locally damaging straight line winds and small hail with H5 temps in the -10.5 to -12C range. Eventually, isentropically driven convection north of the front leading to localized cold pooling across south-central MS, along with a re-enforcing push of cooler, drier air from a decaying frontal boundary to the north will push the warm front back to the south as a cold front. As this front progresses southward, a few more locally stronger storms may persist into the evening and early overnight hours either riding the boundary along the easterly flow, or perhaps becoming elevated behind the front. Ofcourse, damaging winds will only be a concern for storms rooted near the boundary within the warm sector, but hail will continue to be an issue with any stronger storm into tonight. Additionally, there is some concern for localized training of any stronger cells/line segments later today which may lead to some isolated flash flooding concerns as this front sags south. For now, this threat appears too isolated to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but be aware that this threat does exist for today.

This disturbance passes and so does any remnant dynamic support for convection later tonight, but will likely continue with stratiform light showers generally along and south of I-10/12. With drier air filtering in from the north behind the southward sagging front, not anticipating there to be widespread dense fog issues similar to tonight, but cant rule out some spotty areas of fog. Going into Saturday, we stay in this quasi-zonal flow with subtle impulses swinging across the area with the surface front locked up somewhere along or south of the SE LA coastline in our marine zones. To the west, a much deeper closed off upper-low dives east from the four corners region into northern texas, helping to promote downstream surface cyclogenesis. Expect widespread showers and storms to erupt across SE TX and SW LA through the day, with any mid to upper-level anvil canopy stratiform light rain showers or drizzle spreading across the area with overcast skies.

From here, going into Saturday night into Sunday - a lot is riding on just where this aforementioned surface low will track. NAM/GFS solutions remain confident that the surface low will track from Lake Charles, and quickly accelerate NNE to NE across central MS, meanwhile ECMWF continues as the wild card keeping the surface low cutting across the CWA. Big question here is going to be just how strong the environmental Gulf return flow can get out ahead of this low, if it can be enough to drag the warm sector north enough to support the potential for severe weather. For now, it is looking more likely for areas along the southshore and all across SE LA will be enough in the warm sector, as well as eventually coastal MS. The SPC does now have a Marginal Risk in effect but in a larger area. Going to keep focus on the aforementioned areas for now, as enough deep-layer moisture combined with ample dynamic shear/backed surface winds may lead to several quick spin up tornadoes. Analyzing CAM soundings within the warm sector paints around 200-300m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1 to 0-3km layer, with a slither of instability making its way north which may be just enough to get some shallow cells spinning. But for now, more confidence will come in later forecast updates, but wanted to mention the main threat at this time to be for areas generally south of I-10/12 including the southshore and across coastal MS but will continue to message lower confidence on the northward extent. Good news is this front will pass through quickly, with improving conditions Sunday afternoon with strong CAA building in, helping temperatures drop fast by daybreak Monday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday) .

Highs Monday and Tuesday not likely to get out of the 50s for the first time since late February, which seems like 2 years ago. Overnight lows Tuesday morning likely to go subfreezing north and west of Lake Pontchartrain, and in a few locations Wednesday morning. With the exception of Gulfport and New Orleans, we'll be past the average first freeze date by then. Gulfport average 1st freeze is on the 5th, and on the 13th in New Orleans, but we don't expect a freeze next week in Orleans and Jefferson Parishes and most locations south of the Lake. Temperatures should moderate back toward normal for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. 35

AVIATION .

UPDATED 1023Z .

Main impacts will continue to be areas of dense surface fog for all terminals this morning. Expect primarily IFR to periods of LIFR through 14-15Z this morning, with conditions expected to improve thereafter. Otherwise, only a few isolated showers or drizzle expected for later this morning, with overcast skies. Showers/storms redevelop and will spread east across the entire area later this afternoon and evening, leading to more likely impacts from heavy rain - leading to lower flight categories. A few locally strong to severe storms will be possible along a frontal boundary slowly pressing south across the area today, with the main risk being small hail and gusty, erratic downdraft winds. Conditions will likely not improve much tonight, with light stratiform showers expected to persist through atleast daybreak on Saturday. KLG

MARINE .

Light onshore flow continues across all marine zones this morning, as a warm front continues to surge north across inland locations of SE LA and southern MS. Some dense fog will be likely across the tidal lakes and sounds through atleast 10AM this morning, but should improve slowly thereafter. Beyond this time frame, expect waves of showers and storms through late Friday and into the upcoming weekend. A few storms could be severe, with locally strong winds of 34knots or greater possible along with increased waves/seas within the proximity of any storm activity. A cold front will race east across the region late Saturday and early Sunday, bringing with it another round of severe thunderstorms. In this time frame, strong wind gusts and waterspouts will be the main threats, but will exit to the east around early/mid afternoon on Sunday. Beyond Sunday, strong winds will build in behind the front with a steady increase in waves/seas into early next week. ATTM, expect a high chance of Small Craft Advisory highlights as strong winds and wave/seas peaking to atleast 7-11ft for outer 20-60nm zones. Winds and seas subside going into mid-week with persistent NW winds steadily diminishing with time. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 74 60 67 57 / 90 80 30 90 BTR 77 61 68 58 / 90 90 50 90 ASD 77 62 71 58 / 70 80 40 80 MSY 81 65 70 62 / 50 70 50 80 GPT 75 62 70 60 / 60 80 40 80 PQL 80 62 73 58 / 50 80 30 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi50 min ESE 8 G 8 74°F 67°F1016.2 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 21 mi50 min SSW 8.9 G 14 76°F 73°F1015.8 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 34 mi50 min SSW 8 G 12 77°F 69°F1014.3 hPa
CARL1 38 mi50 min 62°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS16 mi48 minSE 37.00 miOvercast72°F69°F94%1015.9 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA23 mi45 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6SE3CalmSE5Calm------------------CalmCalmSE4--S6SE4S6SE5SE5SE3
1 day agoSW6W5CalmCalmSW3------------------Calm4544CalmCalm----5
2 days agoSE8SE9SE6SE11SE10------------------S5S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:00 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:30 AM CST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:33 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:34 PM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:59 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:10 AM CST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:32 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:10 PM CST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.90.80.60.50.30.30.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.21.31.41.41.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.