Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday August 22, 2019 12:33 PM CDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 12:21PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:201908230315;;035685 Fzus52 Ktae 221409 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1009 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-230315- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1009 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019 /909 Am Cdt Thu Aug 22 2019/
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the evening becoming light and variable winds, then becoming east around 5 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then becoming light and variable winds early in the afternoon becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1009 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure will dominate over the next few days featuring light winds and low seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.17, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221406
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1006 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

Update
Pops just offshore franklin and gulf counties have been adjusted
slightly upwards for the rest of the morning. New high-res model
guidance show a few showers developing in these areas before noon.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to move onshore and along the sea
breeze as the day progresses.

Prev discussion [619 am edt]
Near term [through today]
A western atlantic ridge nudging into the northeastern gulf with
some moisture around the nose of the axis to the west will
increase pops in the western portion of panhandle and southern al.

Elsewhere, pops will be lower where subsidence and some dry air is
present along the ridge axis. Southeasterly flow along with
daytime heating will help initiate convection along panhandle
coastline and push inland in the late morning and afternoon. Highs
in the low 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
The aforementioned ridge is expected to persist which will not
change the short term weather outlook appreciably. Best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will again be in the western portion of
our cwa, with lower chances in the big bend and southeast al. This will
be a welcome relief for big bend from the recent heavy rainfall,
which should allow the steinhatchee and econfina river levels to
gradually decrease. Highs will be in the mid 90s (slightly lower
in areas affected by convection) and lows in the low-to-mid 70s.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
A generally unsettled pattern is in store through the period with
very high moisture values and eventually a weak boundary approaching
from the northwest. Pwat values on Sunday look to be around 2-2.2
inches with highest amounts inland. Seabreeze convection should
become fairly widespread as it builds north of i-10 with locally
heavy rain possible. More of the same mon-wed as pwat's increase
into generally the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range. These values are in the
95%+ climo range and will result in even greater coverage of diurnal
convection with increasing potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances Wednesday may also be enhanced by an approaching cold
front and lowering heights as a trough digs into the eastern us
temperatures will trend a little cooler than climatology given
expected clouds and rainfall in the moist pattern.

Aviation
[through 12z Friday]
based on the position of the ridge most of the precipitation will
be west of the area today. There will be increased moisture in
southwest georgia and showers may develop later this afternoon.

Appears to be close to vld so kept vcts while removing prob30 from
the other tafs with decreased confidence of occurrence.VFR conds
outside of storms with light south winds.

Marine
High pressure will dominate over the next few days featuring light
winds and low seas.

Fire weather
No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next
several days.

Hydrology
Just isolated storms are expected through Saturday which will allow
elevated rivers over the eastern big bend to slowly subside. Sunday
through Wednesday look increasingly wet as the atmosphere becomes
loaded with tropical moisture. There should be some rises on many
of our area rivers and localized flash flooding may also become a
threat where storms persist.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 92 74 93 75 94 40 10 30 10 30
panama city 88 77 88 76 89 40 10 20 10 30
dothan 92 73 91 73 91 40 20 40 20 50
albany 92 74 93 75 92 30 20 30 20 50
valdosta 92 74 92 75 92 40 20 30 10 30
cross city 92 74 93 75 93 30 10 20 10 30
apalachicola 87 76 88 76 89 30 10 20 10 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Dicatarina
near term... Scholl
short term... Scholl
long term... Scholl
aviation... Scholl
marine... Scholl
fire weather... Scholl
hydrology... Johnstone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi52 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 86°F
PCBF1 7 mi46 min SE 8.9 G 11
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi46 min ESE 5.1 G 6
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 53 mi109 min ESE 5.1 1019 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL11 mi38 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F76°F72%1017.9 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL13 mi41 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F75°F63%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S10SW7E6NE3E3CalmE4E3CalmE4NE3CalmE3E3E3E5E4E4NE4E8SE8S9S9
1 day ago--S7S10S7S5S5SE4SE4SE3CalmE4NE3NE3E3CalmE3CalmCalmNE5E5E7E5SE3E3
2 days agoSW14SW14
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SW11W13SW13SW11SW11SW9SW9W7W6SW5SW4--S3CalmE3E3SE4--E4SE5SE7--

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:11 AM CDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:10 PM CDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:36 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.21.21.21.21.110.90.80.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.9111.1

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:45 AM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:06 PM CDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:36 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.41.31.31.21.110.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.80.80.90.911.21.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.