Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:49PM Friday July 3, 2020 11:43 PM CDT (04:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:202007041415;;278508 Fzus52 Ktae 040156 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 956 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-041415- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 956 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020 /856 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 3 2020/
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Rain in the morning. Thunderstorms likely through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms likely and rain in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 956 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Synopsis..Light to moderate winds between westerly or southerly are expected through the weekend and into next week. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet through Sunday afternoon and 1 to 3 feet from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A wet pattern will continue through the first half of next week. Some storms will have the potential of becoming severe. Strong or severe storms can quickly lead to dangerous increases in wind speeds leading to choppy seas. Waterspouts may also develop quickly this time of year under these conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.17, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 040155 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 955 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

UPDATE.

The previous forecast remains in good shape for the overnight hours. Expect storms over the Panhandle and SE Alabama to gradually dissipate over the next couple of hours, transitioning to the Gulf for the remainder of the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION [730 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Saturday].

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will slowly diminish during the overnight hours. Rain chances are still fairly high into the evening hours across the Florida big bend and adjacent areas where colliding outflow boundaries may allow convection to persist for a few hours after sunset. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

For Saturday, guidance shows weak upper level troughing persisting across the region. A gradient in deep moisture is expected to set up across the forecast area with some drier air temporarily moving into the northeastern part of the area. Farther south across the Florida panhandle and big bend, precipitable water values will likely remain over 2 inches. Thus, the official forecast will show higher rain chances across the southern half of the area where a tropical airmass is expected to be in place with some upper level support given the weak troughing. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Night through Monday].

A mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley will maintain a moist air mass under southerly flow, which will be lifted by a surface trough and the sea-breeze circulation. Precipitable Water values will be around ~2.0 inches, which is around 2 Standard Deviations above normal. The Probability of Precip will be ~80 pct both days, which is well above climatology. The heavies precip should occur on Sunday, with a low to mid-level convergence axis translating northward across the region. Considerable cloudiness will limit instability, with high temperatures averaging 3-5 degrees below seasonal norms, so the main concern is heavy rainfall (see the hydrology section at the bottom).

LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday].

The mid-level trough will gradually shift northeastward as an extension of the subtropical high builds into the Gulf of Mexico. The trend will be for the Probability of Precip to gradually decrease from south to north, ranging from 70-80 pct on Tuesday to 40-50 pct on Friday (closer to climatology). Deep moisture will remain across the region, so the potential for heavy rainfall continues, especially invof any surface boundaries. The severe weather threat looks to be of the isolated/pulse-type through the period, which is what we would expect for this time of year. But this will have to be monitored with proximity of the mid-level trough and potential for sheared low-level flow, as a slightly stronger wind field could over perform. As temperatures increase during the mid to late week above seasonal levels, heat indices in excess of 105 degrees are possible, with highest confidence over the FL Panhandle.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Sunday]

Scattered thunderstorms will diminish after sunset. VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Tomorrow afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will be numerous over the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Elsewhere showers and thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered.

MARINE.

Light to moderate winds between westerly or southerly are expected through the weekend and into next week. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet through Sunday afternoon and 1 to 3 feet from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A wet pattern will continue through the first half of next week. Some storms will have the potential of becoming severe. Strong or severe storms can quickly lead to dangerous increases in wind speeds leading to choppy seas. Waterspouts may also develop quickly this time of year under these conditions.

FIRE WEATHER.

Outside of low dispersions this weekend, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

HYDROLOGY.

A wet and unsettled pattern is forecast over the next several days as a low pressure system stalls over our area. Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible throughout the weekend. Currently, there is a low risk for excessive rainfall (<10%) as depicted by WPCs 3 day excessive rainfall outlook. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is possible through the next 5 to 7 days. Isolated amounts could be higher, especially as the area of low pressure slowly meanders across our area over the weekend and into next week. The main impacts would be minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 73 89 72 88 73 / 20 70 50 80 60 Panama City 77 88 76 87 77 / 30 60 60 80 60 Dothan 72 89 72 86 71 / 60 50 40 80 50 Albany 73 92 74 88 73 / 30 30 30 80 50 Valdosta 72 90 72 86 72 / 30 40 40 80 40 Cross City 72 89 72 89 74 / 20 70 60 80 50 Apalachicola 76 87 76 86 77 / 20 60 70 80 60

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

UPDATE . Harrigan NEAR TERM . DVD SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . LF AVIATION . McD MARINE . Oliver FIRE WEATHER . LF HYDROLOGY . Oliver


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi55 min W 1.9 G 1.9 83°F
PCBF1 7 mi55 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 82°F1013.7 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi55 min NNW 1 G 1.9 78°F 86°F1013.4 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 53 mi58 min SSE 1 1014 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL11 mi1.8 hrsE 510.00 miA Few Clouds80°F73°F82%1013.5 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL13 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6N8N6N7N7NE5NE5NE3E4NW7NW7NW7W8E3W10W8NW11NW9NW6NW6N4E5Calm
1 day agoNE5N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN14N14NW15N16N19NW19N15N15N15NW16NW14N12N11N10N8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NW8NW10NW11NE11CalmN6N10NW4N5E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:58 PM CDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:44 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.60.81.11.31.51.71.81.91.91.71.51.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM CDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:42 PM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:44 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.811.31.61.81.91.91.91.81.71.410.60.2-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.