Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson Point, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:49PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 9:32 AM CDT (14:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 330 Am Cdt Tue Aug 4 2020
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east late in the morning, then becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northwest winds near 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southwest winds near 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 330 Am Cdt Tue Aug 4 2020
Synopsis.. Weak high pressure will remain in place over the gulf through the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson Point, MS
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location: 30.21, -89.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 040849 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 349 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday Night).

Quick synoptic overview of the continental US shows the same persistent, high amplitude longwave trough settled across the eastern US, with the trough axis now pushing away to the east helping nudge Hurricane Isaias up along the mid-atlantic coastline. Upstream this trough axis, much drier air filtered in especially at the H7 to H3 layer. Differences in Monday evening's KLIX 00Z launch compared to the KLIX sounding Sunday afternoon illustrates this significant transition in tropospheric moisture/airmass origin. This, combined with no supportive dynamic ascent (largely NVA in the low-level vertical wind profile) helped suppress storm development a bit more than anticipated, with only one lone shower observed across Jackson County Monday afternoon. Today will be similar to yesterday for many. However, noticed an interesting feature from the early morning RAP13KM tropospheric layer analysis/forecast for today. Looking back to the west, a small embedded low-amplitude shortwave will swing across the base of the larger longwave trough axis generally across the northern Gulf coast today, with evident PVA/curvature in the H5 to H3 layer enough to help with some subtle dynamic lift. CAM's this morning are identifying this feature by helping with a blowup of convection along the SE LA coastline, right at the best position of downstream divergence/ascent in conjunction with the best supply of low-level moisture and instability. Reflected this potential in the hourly PoP's today by allowing for a much higher-bias to the HRRR blended into the NBM, which paints 20-40 PoP's in this region. May have to monitor the potential for a strong storm or two, as DCAPE is very high in this region thanks to strong dry adiabatic PBL mixing and drier air in the H7-H5 layer with dry air entrainment likely. But this convection will not last long, dissipating around or shortly after sunset revealing dry conditions tonight.

By Wednesday, still continuing to struggle to identify enough of moisture gradient along what was supposed to be a weak front coming through early Wednesday. WPC now does not really identify this front anymore, keeping a stationary front stalled across the region through Wednesday. Closer investigation looking at the NAM3KM shows a few "pulses" of slightly drier air being pulled south across SE LA and S MS, but again not enough to honestly call this much of a front. Performed the same adjustments to the loaded in NBM surface Td guidance for Wednesday afternoon, pulling dewpoints down more during peak afternoon mixing in order to produce more realistic MinRH's. I do believe it'll be enough to feel a tiny difference in the air, especially along and north of I-10/12 but nothing to get overly excited about (just a few more months to go!) Any afternoon shower or storm activity will again be confined to coastal SE LA or southern MS with not much in the way of PoP's at this time. May need to monitor a potential ongoing MCS across the Red River Valley region of the TX/OK border Wednesday, but this system will be pushing into a much drier environment owing to eventual decay. Thursday, same deal on the table with a prominent NW flow regime continuing as any isolated shower activity will remain along/near the SE LA and S MS coastal areas. KLG

LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday).

Upper level trough will continue to push east Friday into the weekend. Upper level anti-cyclonic circulation likely over the Southern Plains will amplify with a ridge axis extending southeast over north central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable water values will slowly rebound from 1.2 to 1.4 inches on Friday to 1.6 to 1.7 inches Saturday to Sunday. As a result, rain chances will increase Saturday and Sunday to near normal for this time year. Heights will increase with the ridge axis building over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered convection will not prevent temperatures from climbing into the low to mid 90s this weekend.

Upper level high is expected to retrograde west over the interior southern Rockies next Monday and Tuesday. This feature will leave a weak flow over the forecast area along with elevated precipitable water values up to 1.8 inches. As a result, rain chances will continue to increase into next week with slow moving storms.

AVIATION.

UPDATED 0845Z.

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals today through this evening. A few isolated/scattered TSRA possible in KHUM later this afternoon between 19Z and 23Z, and have introduce VCTS in this area to account for the scattered nature of the expected convection. Main threats in any one storm near KHUM will be gusty, erratic downdraft winds and lightning. Otherwise, any shower or storm activity will diminish around or shortly after sunset with no additional impacts expected.

MARINE.

Relatively calm conditions will persist across coastal waters through the week thanks to a nearby weak area of high pressure. Some nearshore t-storms will be possible this afternoon, as well as Wednesday and Thursday afternoons but coverage will not be overly widespread. A few storms may contain gusty, erratic winds at the surface along with dangerous lightning. Otherwise, winds will remain light with wave heights generally 2 ft or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 92 69 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 93 69 92 68 / 0 0 10 0 ASD 94 71 93 70 / 0 0 10 0 MSY 94 76 92 74 / 0 0 10 0 GPT 91 73 90 73 / 10 10 10 0 PQL 94 72 93 71 / 0 0 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 8 mi44 min WNW 5.1 G 7 84°F 83°F1015.8 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 32 mi44 min W 5.1 G 6 83°F 88°F1016 hPa
42067 - USM3M02 39 mi92 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 87°F 1 ft1014.6 hPa (+1.7)
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi44 min 84°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 41 mi44 min NW 8 G 9.9 85°F 1015.5 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi44 min W 2.9 G 4.1 83°F 87°F1014.9 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi107 min Calm 80°F 1016 hPa74°F
CARL1 49 mi44 min 88°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS14 mi42 minN 07.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1015.6 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS17 mi39 minWNW 410.00 miFair85°F71°F63%1015.1 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS24 mi36 minN 02.50 miFair with Haze85°F72°F67%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm44NW6
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N7N7--NW9NW5----Calm------------------CalmCalmCalm
1 day ago44W6CalmCalmS7SW5W43CalmCalmCalm------------------Calm5Calm
2 days agoW5W5W5W6
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SW4W4SW6--S6--------------------CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:25 AM CDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:52 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:20 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.50.70.91.21.41.71.92.12.22.22.121.71.51.20.90.70.50.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:03 PM CDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.40.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.92221.91.71.51.210.80.60.40.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.