Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson Point, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 11:15 AM CDT (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:15PMMoonset 11:41AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1020 Am Cdt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1020 Am Cdt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis.. Ridge extension of bermuda high pressure area across the northeast gulf of mexico will persist through the weekend. An unsettled pattern will provide periods of Thunderstorms over the coastal waters through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson Point, MS
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location: 30.21, -89.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 211547
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1047 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019

Update
Performed a forecast update this morning to reflect recent radar
and observation trends. Taking a glance at the 12z klix sounding
profile compared to yesterday shows a few differences, including a
deeper moist return flow in place from the sfc to 700mb.

Precipitable water values at 2.12 inches this afternoon is
slightly higher than yesterday which reflects this surge in
low mid level moisture. A very low convective temperature of 84f
reflects radar trends showing tropical showers already developing,
but struggles to reach height to become thunderstorms. This will
change as we get into the afternoon, with better surface based
instability building. Cam guidance supports widespread storm
coverage generally for all areas - and have adjusted pops to
likely storm coverage today. Additionally, slightly adjusted
afternoon temperatures down to reflect widespread storm coverage.

Overall specific threats will continue to be heavy rainfall
leading to localized flash flooding, as storm motions will be
weak (150 3kts) and largely outflow boundary driven. Not expecting
a significant threat of flash flooding or severe weather, but a
few storms may become strong with gusty downdraft winds in excess
of 25 to 35 mph. Convection will again steadily diminish around
sunset tonight, leading to calm conditions tonight. Klg

Prev discussion issued 414 am cdt Wed aug 21 2019
a few sh TS developing this morning and this trend should continue
into the daylight hours. The daily thunderstorm routine will
remain through today. But instead of getting drier, we will begin
to see a deeper surge of moisture from the gulf moving into the
area. The first of these comes Thursday. A second surge moves in
for Friday. Pw values remain around 2.25" but Thursday will be
the transition to a more tropical environment as pw values will
rise to around 2.6". This remains the case into Friday and could
even remain into Saturday. Friday should be a heavier rainfall
day somewhere along the gulf coast since a better focus will be
provided in the form of an easterly wave which will help cause
850mb convergence and lift. This could cause some flooding
concerns for those that find themselves where the bulk of this
moisture moves ashore. The area moving in on Friday is the
tropical environment with an abundance of sh TS near the yucatan
this morning. This moisture is on the east side of a tutt low but
will eventually be funneled north along the tropical wave moving
west over the central gulf.

There are some global models that are wanting to bring a cold
front with an actual thermal gradient into the area by next week.

But that is too far out to give any credence at the moment.

Aviation
Currently, only flight restriction is at khum, where there are MVFR
ceilings. They did have a brief period of ifr conditions with fog,
but with the cloud deck moving in, fog threat should lessen
somewhat. Main concern for the day will be convective potential.

Threat will increase beyond 15z as daytime heating gets going, with
primary threat after 18z. For now, will carry vcts in forecast. The
few cells we've seen over the last couple of hours have been very
slow moving, and may be more propagation than movement. Localized
ifr conditions in thunderstorms with 30 knot gusts, for the most
part. Would expect most tsra to weaken or dissipate by about 00z
Thursday. 35

Marine
Bermuda ridge flow pattern to maintain light winds and low seas that
will become locally enhanced near thunderstorms complexes that
develop mainly in the overnight hours. 35

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal risk excessive rainfall for Friday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 87 71 90 73 70 20 60 10
btr 87 74 89 75 70 10 80 10
asd 88 73 90 74 60 10 70 30
msy 87 77 89 77 70 20 80 30
gpt 86 75 87 75 30 10 60 30
pql 88 73 89 73 10 20 60 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 8 mi46 min W 5.1 G 7 1019.4 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 32 mi46 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 1018.8 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi52 min 84°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 41 mi52 min SSE 6 G 7 85°F 1019.1 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi46 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 83°F 87°F1017.8 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi91 min S 6 83°F 1020 hPa78°F
CARL1 49 mi46 min 87°F
GBRM6 49 mi136 min 87°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS14 mi86 minS 67.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F77°F84%1018.3 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS17 mi83 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F75°F72%1018.1 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS24 mi80 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds85°F75°F74%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr44S4SE5S7
G13
--S6S3S4S4------------------Calm--CalmS6SE8
1 day ago44S10--W6W4W64--Calm------------------44444
2 days agoS4S7SE8SE6S3S444CalmCalm------------------CalmCalmCalm--4

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:46 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:40 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:38 PM CDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.41.41.41.31.31.21.11.111111111.11.11.11.21.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:18 AM CDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 PM CDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.21.21.21.31.31.31.31.21.21.11.1110.90.90.90.90.9111.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.