Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Eden Isle, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 7:14 AM CST (13:14 UTC) Moonrise 5:05PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 359 Am Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 3 pm cst this afternoon through this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late Wednesday night...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots late. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy dense fog early in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning. Showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening. Showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..West winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 359 Am Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis..A cold front will sweep through the coastal waters tonight. A low pressure system will then develop over the central gulf of mexico Wednesday night into Thursday. This low pressure system will pass over the gulf waters Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will then build for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eden Isle, LA
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location: 30.22, -89.82     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 101002 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 402 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS.

Cold front at 3 AM CST extended from near Meridian to Natchez to just north of Lake Charles. Front is pushing southeast at 10-15 mph, and should be around McComb around sunrise, Baton Rouge 13-15z, Hammond 16z, Slidell/New Orleans/Houma 18-19z, Mississippi Coast prior to 21z, and passing the mouth of the Mississippi River prior to midnight. Scattered coverage of showers ahead of the front, broken along and behind front. Evening and forecast soundings indicate some potential for a thunderstorm or two ahead of the front, but threat too low to mention at this time with instability rather limited. Areas of fog in New Orleans and Slidell areas as well as the Mississippi coast. This appears to be an advective fog event, as opposed to radiation fog 24 hours ago.

Temperatures and dew points were near 70 away from direct marine influences at 3 am. Cooler water holding temperatures in the mid 60s right at the coast as noted at Gulfport, Biloxi and Boothville.

SHORT TERM.

Pushed Fog Advisory expiration out to 9 am CST, and wouldn't be surprised if day shift needs to bump it out a little longer. The hope is that the scattered showers noted on radar will mix things out enough to improve visibilities above advisory criteria.

Actually going to be two periods of precipitation with this event. Showers with the cold frontal passage this morning and early afternoon, followed by another surge overnight tonight as southern stream shortwave moves through the base of the trough. In both cases, majority of precipitation will be behind the front, so any thunderstorms would need to be significantly elevated, and there just isn't any significant instability to speak of. Precipitation is expected to linger through at least Wednesday morning before pushing south of the Interstate 10 corridor.

Northern and southern stream shortwaves move rapidly across the country on Thursday, and will return the threat of rain to the area by Thursday afternoon/night.

Frontal passage today at any location will be followed by a 10-15 degree drop, so calendar day highs near and northwest of McComb and Baton Rouge could actually occur prior to sunrise today. Won't go much above current temperatures for highs elsewhere, but if any significant sunshine occurs along the Mississippi coast or in the Slidell/New Orleans/Houma areas, highs could get close to 80 again before turning colder. Cold air advection blowing across Lake Pontchartrain will produce gusty winds behind the front, but the forecast at this time is for conditions to remain just below Wind Advisory criteria south of Lake Pontchartrain.

Beyond today, not really a lot of spread in guidance temperatures through Thursday, so haven't strayed too far from guidance. 35

LONG TERM.

Beyond Friday morning, forecast confidence diminishes rapidly as medium range models significantly disagree on timing and potential phasing of northern and southern stream shortwaves. It's not really noticed much on Saturday in the temperature guidance, but by Sunday, ECMWF involves much colder air than the GFS with a 10-15 degree difference in forecast highs on Sunday, but has been lacking run to run consistency. In fact, ensemble MOS guidance from ECMWF shows 20-30 degree spreads on highs and lows for multiple locations in our area on Sunday. For now, will keep with the middle of the guidance envelope in agreement with surrounding offices until the forecast trends become more clear. Be sure that forecast confidence in temperatures for Sunday through Tuesday is very low. 35

AVIATION.

Low level ceilings from VV001 to OVC005 will remain through much of the morning hours. These ceilings will lift to OVC030 after fropa. But look for SCT-BKN010 to be in and out at each terminal through a good portion of the overnight hours. Ceilings will finally lift to OVC050+ by Wed morning. Vis restrictions will be an issue at terminals that are mainly adjacent to water bodies as those locations should dip to less than 1/2SM at times this morning. This will improve with fropa. Winds will also be an issue for locations on the lee side of lakes becoming Northerly at 25kt with higher gusts. Fropa timing should be along a line from MCB to BTR by 7am today, HDC by 10am, HUM-MSY-NEW-ASD line by 1pm, and GPT by 2pm.

MARINE.

A few locations showing fog this morning and a marine dense fog advisory will remain for these areas through 9am today. A cold front will approach and move through the coastal waters later today and overnight. Fog conditions will be replaced with widespread rain showers this evening though Wednesday. Strong northerly winds of 25 to 30kt will also move in behind this cold front. Small craft advisories have been posted and will remain through Wed for all waters and through Thursday night for most outer waters. These conditions will be pressed south into the central gulf Thursday night, but will rapidly move back into the coastal waters by the end of this week along with widespread sh/ts.

DECISION SUPPORT.

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support to City of New Orleans and Miss gulf coast Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 68 39 55 39 / 100 100 20 10 BTR 68 41 56 40 / 90 100 20 10 ASD 75 40 58 40 / 90 100 50 20 MSY 75 46 56 47 / 90 100 50 20 GPT 72 42 55 43 / 90 100 60 20 PQL 77 42 58 41 / 90 80 60 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ040- 060>064-068>070.

GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ552-555-557-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ575-577.

MS . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ077- 080>082.

GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ555-557-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 20 mi69 min S 8 G 13 70°F 63°F1014.5 hPa
CARL1 26 mi57 min 51°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi69 min S 6 G 8 68°F 65°F1015.7 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 27 mi69 min SSW 5.1 G 7 67°F 62°F1015.8 hPa
FREL1 33 mi57 min S 8.9 G 13 72°F 1013.8 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi69 min S 5.1 G 8 71°F 65°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA9 mi22 minS 102.00 miFog/Mist70°F68°F93%1015.2 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA17 mi22 minS 113.00 miFog/Mist71°F68°F90%1014.9 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS22 mi25 minN 00.25 miFog68°F66°F94%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S9S9S10
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1 day agoCalmN334SE53S6SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S8
2 days agoNE7NE8NE8NE6N6N8N6N9N7N5NE5N6N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:02 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:04 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:56 PM CST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.60.50.30.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.50.60.70.80.90.91

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:40 PM CST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:06 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.90.90.80.70.50.40.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.10.20.40.50.60.80.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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