Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Slidell, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:59PM Saturday November 28, 2020 10:14 AM CST (16:14 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1005 Am Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of light rain.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers until early morning, then showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest near 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..North winds near 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1005 Am Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis..A stationary front will remain over the offshore north central gulf coastal waters today. A low pressure area is expected to develop along the upper texas and southwest louisiana coast tonight and then move east to northeast across the central gulf coast region Sunday. The stationary front will lift back north as a warm front towards the coast tonight and Sunday morning, then a strong cold front will move through the region Sunday afternoon. Cold high pressure will build in its wake early next week. The high pressure area will move across the central gulf coast region Tuesday and east of the region on Wednesday as another cold front moves into the western gulf coast region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slidell, LA
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location: 30.27, -89.79     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 281148 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 548 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

AVIATION. 12Z TAF package . All terminals with the expection of HUM have dropped to IFR or LIFR status due to low cigs. Low cigs will be an issue all day and night for pretty much the entire area as they remain around 600 to 2k. Most of the terminals should be fine from a vsby standpoint and present weather through the day however HUM will likely have VCSH most of the day. SHRA should spread east through the night but TSRA will likely hold off until after 9z for the most western terminals. Winds will remain out of the northeast today and this evening and then begin to veer around to the east after midnight. /CAB/

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 450 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020/

SHORT TERM. The cold front has pushed all the way back into the Gulf while a band of light showers continues to lag back behind it. This band appears to be more associated with the h925 front and a mid level jet. This activity will continue to drift south and slowly dissipate as the jet streak slides east.

Today may be mostly quiet as we wait to feel the influence of the approaching mid level low. The disturbance at 9z was back in New Mexico and will slowly work into the southern Plains by this evening. This will lead to some weak ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and with that lift across the region will slack off some initially. This should cause most of the rain to dissipate until this afternoon, but there will probably still be a few showers across mainly coastal LA this morning. Weak isentropic lift will start set up just off to the west and that will increase across the area late this afternoon and through the night. This will lead to scattered showers developing over southwestern portions of the CWA this afternoon. As lift increases across the region overnight showers should become more widespread especially over the western half of the CWA. Thunder may still be quite limited overnight as we will still be lacking instability until just before sunrise.

Heading into Sunday there are a lot of question marks. Most importantly appears to be the track of the sfc low. It will begin to develop along the northeast TX coast overnight Saturday and then should lift to the east-northeast and then eventually northeast Sunday and Sunday night. Where and how fast it does could be highly dependent on where convection develops. As always if there is a lot of convection north of the warm front, it could get anchored closer to the coast. This would favor a more southern track and thus keep much of the area out of the warm sector which in turn would limit the severe risk. The risk of moderate to heavy rain would still be in play as we should still have some elevated instability thus leading to thunderstorms and brief periods of heavy rain. Another concern is convection firing over the Gulf and along the coast. This would cut off LL moisture flow to the north and also lead to a slightly more southern track of the sfc low. This scenario is beginning to be advertised by the some models but a majority of the guidance still suggest the sfc low being able to come more inland and getting at least a good chunk of the CWA in the warm sector. This will keep the risk of severe weather possible across the region and SPC has the entire region in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. If the sfc low is able to come well inland the risk for severe weather would increase. Biggest negative is instability. That still appears to be limited but if there are any breaks in the cloud cover there could be some modest destabilization of the atmosphere and given the amount of moisture and shear in place it would be more than adequate to get surface based storms to develop and if it can become deep enough would have the potential of being severe. 0-1 and 0-3km SRH could range from 200-400m2/s2(maybe higher) and 0-6km bulk shear of 45- 65kts suggest the potential is there for damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. A lot will hinge on the track of the sfc low.

Convection and rain will quickly come to an end Sunday night as the strongest cold front of the season makes its way through the area. As our disturbance swings through the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley the sfc low will begin to quickly eject northeast towards WV driving the cold front across the deep south and completely through the CWA. We will probably deal with clouds through much of the morning until the LL thermal trough slides by but even if the sun comes out, with h925 temps of 0-2C highs will struggle to get much abv the lower to mid 50s, some locations across southwest MS may struggle to get into the 50s. This will set the stage for a chilly night and what a way to start the meteorological winter. CAA is expected to remain strong through the night and even though winds are not anticipated to completely shut down, in fact LL winds will remain strong through the night, the strength of the CAA will lead to our first freeze across a good chunk of the area. /CAB/

LONG TERM (Tuesday and beyond) .

Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning in a long time across most of the area. Freezes possible, if not likely, north and west of Lake Pontchartrain. High pressure moves from the Texas coast Tuesday morning to off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday night. At that point, models begin to diverge. 18z and 00z GFS solutions emphasize northern stream shortwave at the end of next week, while the 12z ECMWF emphasizes southern stream shortwave. While both models return moisture to the area Wednesday night and Thursday, with an attendant chance of precipitation, the GFS solution would start it about 12 hours earlier. In addition, the ECMWF solution would develop a significant surface low over the Gulf in our coastal waters as the northern and southern streams phase, strengthening the surface low it as it heads toward the Florida Panhandle Friday. The GFS is basically an inverted trough with surface pressures at least 10 mb higher.

Will take the middle ground on timing with no mention of precipitation until Wednesday night, mainly after midnight. Would note that if 12z ECMWF scenario becomes the preferred solution, PoPs and winds from Wednesday night onward would need to be bumped up significantly from current levels.

Only real disagreement on temperatures through Friday will be for Thursday and Thursday night, which can be attributed to the vastly different surface patterns. Current forecast is in between the 2 solutions, so we can go either way depending on favored solution in later packages. /35/

MARINE . Cold front drifted in the coastal waters overnight and is anticipated to stall today. Light winds and some showers will be the main impact today but look for conditions to go downhill tomorrow as a developing sfc low along the northeast TX coast begins to lift to the east-northeast. This low will deepen and the pressure gradient will tighten across the area with strong onshore flow (15-25kts) developing by midday tomorrow if not slightly earlier than that. As the sfc low moves off to the northeast it will usher a strong cold front Sunday night and strong onshore winds will quickly become stronger offshore winds (20-25 kts possibly 30kts in the outer waters). We have issued a SCY for all of the coastal waters beginning tomorrow and persisting through Monday night. Winds should relax on Tuesday. /CAB/

AVIATION . (06z TAF Package)

Most terminals running MVFR to VFR this evening as main convection has moved offshore. Still some elevated precipitation across northwest half of area and no indications of any lightning involved with this. Starting to see IFR ceilings sinking southward across KMCB, and will probably reach KBTR/KHDC/KASD by about 09z. Will be cutting way back on mention of precipitation in TAF set until at least 00z Sunday, and maybe even closer to 06z. Based on 00z MOS guidance from NAM and GFS, won't carry TSRA at any terminal for now. Morning IFR conditions should improve to MVFR and potentially VFR prior to 18z. Conditions will again deteriorate from the west as we approach 06z Sunday, likely to upper end IFR. /35/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 67 58 68 43 / 10 90 90 10 BTR 69 59 70 43 / 40 90 90 0 ASD 71 59 72 43 / 30 80 90 10 MSY 69 63 72 48 / 50 80 90 10 GPT 70 60 71 46 / 30 70 90 10 PQL 72 59 74 44 / 30 70 100 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ536-538.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ538.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 24 mi57 min ENE 9.9 G 9.9 65°F 68°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 25 mi57 min NNE 8 G 8.9 68°F 67°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 28 mi57 min NE 11 G 14 66°F 73°F
CARL1 30 mi57 min 62°F
FREL1 35 mi57 min NE 6 G 8 65°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 47 mi57 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 66°F 71°F

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA6 mi22 minNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F61°F84%1019.6 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS19 mi25 minN 67.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F88%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S6SE6E3SE4W5CalmN63CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N4CalmN4NE5NE7NE6N6NE7NE6
1 day agoN4NE5NE4NE4--NE3CalmCalmN11NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmS4E33
2 days agoS12
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S13S10S11SW8SW4S3CalmS7S4S7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N6N4N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:54 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:57 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:57 PM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.70.50.40.30.10.10-0000.10.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.90.91

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:31 PM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.90.90.80.70.60.40.30.20.10-0-000.10.20.30.30.40.60.70.80.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.