Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 8:31 PM EDT (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:49PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202008130930;;347512 Fzus52 Kjax 121918 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 318 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-130930- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 318 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 318 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020
Synopsis.. A trough will remain situated just west of our georgia waters through the weekend, keeping the axis of weak atlantic ridging positioned across south florida, resulting in prevailing south- southwesterly winds during the next several days. Showers and Thunderstorms will develop each afternoon over land and may impact the near shore waters during the late afternoon and evening hours, with scattered activity possible offshore during the overnight hours. The atlantic sea breeze will develop each afternoon, with winds becoming onshore over the near shore waters, followed by southerly evening wind surges. Coverage of showers and Thunderstorms may increase early next week as a frontal boundary stalls just to the west of the georgia waters.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 11, 2020 at 1200 utc... 58 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 68 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, FL
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location: 30.28, -81.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 122335 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 735 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

UPDATE.

Slow moving convection will decrease in coverage this evening, and should end by midnight. With the slow movement, a few storms with heavy rainfall and localized flooding still a possibility this evening. Partially clearing skies and dry weather anticipated overnight.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Friday]

Convection will decrease in coverage this evening, and is expected to dissipate by midnight. Prevailing VFR conditions expected overnight into Thursday morning. Convection is expected to develop again Thursday afternoon, with restrictions in and near storms anticipated.

PREV DISCUSSION [454 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Thursday].

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon through the early evening hours for locations from Waycross northward, where latest LAPS/RAP analyses indicated downdraft CAPE values around 800 j/kg, indicating that a few storms may pulse and produce gusty winds of 40-50 mph as convection increases in coverage as outflow boundaries drift southward. Slightly warmer temperatures aloft today should limit coverage of strong thunderstorms along the U.S. Highway 301 and I-95 corridors in northeast FL, where mesoscale boundaries will collide and trigger slow moving thunderstorms that will zipper northward up the St. Johns River Basin. Steering flow is almost non-existent, so localized flooding will be possible through the early evening hours, particularly in low lying and metro areas. Outflows from convection moving northward into southeast GA and from convection currently near the Altamaha River may trigger additional thunderstorms over the Okefenokee Swamp and points eastward to the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in southeast GA this evening, but activity should dissipate at these locations by midnight. Otherwise, debris cloudiness will gradually thin out during the predawn hours, hopefully enough to adequately view the Perseid meteor shower. Convection developing along the FL Nature coast during the predawn hours may build northward along the Suwannee River, with isolated coverage possible towards sunrise in southern portions of the Suwannee River Valley. Lows tonight will only fall to the low to mid 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s at coastal locations.

Troughing will begin to sharpen over the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday, resulting in weak ridging aloft over our region, keeping weak steering flow in place locally. A weak pressure pattern will continue to prevail over our area, with southwest flow gradually deepening in the low and mid levels. Tropical moisture will remain in place with relatively mild temperatures aloft, setting the stage for another round of slow moving convection during the late afternoon and evening hours. Higher coverage is anticipated across inland southeast GA and the southern St. Johns River basin, where mesoscale boundary collisions may be more numerous. Highs will again generally reach the lower 90s inland and around 90 at the coast, with heat index values climbing to around 100.

SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Saturday Night].

Convection will remain diurnal in nature and will gradually dissipate during the evening hours, with slowly strengthening southwesterly low and mid level flow potentially bringing activity back towards the I-95 corridor during the early evening hours and then pushing offshore before midnight. Predawn convection may increase in coverage over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and along the Nature Coast on Friday morning, with scattered coverage possibly moving into southern portions of the Suwannee Valley towards sunrise. Lows will generally fall to the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at area beaches.

Mid-level troughing will continue to sharpen over the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys on Friday, with this feature developing a weak surface low pressure center over the Southern Appalachians this weekend as this weather system progresses slowly eastward. Atlantic ridging will attempt to lift northward slightly on Friday, advecting drier air into the mid- levels per model soundings and increasing the risk for pulse strong and isolated severe thunderstorms, with the dominant Gulf coast sea breeze acting as the trigger and slightly faster east- northeastward storm motion anticipated. Stronger activity will be capable of producing downburst winds of 40-60 mph. Strengthening southwesterly flow will pin the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to the east of I-95 through late afternoon, with highs expected to reach the lower 90s all the way to the coast before convection overspreads our region from west to east during the afternoon hours. Convection should continue to remain mostly diurnal in nature, with activity pushing offshore during the early evening hours and isolated to widely scattered activity then moving into the southern portions of the Suwannee Valley towards sunrise on Saturday.

A similar weather pattern will prevail on Saturday as deep southwesterly flow continues and tropical moisture pools over our area as the base of the mid and upper trough moves slowly eastward across the FL panhandle. Numerous mainly late morning and afternoon thunderstorms will develop along the dominant Gulf coast sea breeze, with storms again pulsing along the I-95 corridor as they encounter the pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Highs will again reach the lower 90s before convection develops, with lows falling to the 70s on Saturday night.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday].

Troughing will flatten somewhat as the base of this feature crosses our region on Sunday, with a much drier air mass attempting to cross the Altamaha River in southeast GA late in the day as low and mid level flow attempts to shift to northwesterly in the wake of the trough. Deep southwesterly flow will keep abundant moisture in place for most of our area, with the presence of the trough likely developing convection over the Suwannee Valley during the morning hours on Sunday and Monday, with activity then moving eastward across the rest of our region during the early to mid afternoon. A more significant shortwave is then progged to dive southeastward from the Missouri Valley into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys by midweek, which will sharpen troughing to the west of our region and produce another episode of deep southwesterly flow. Strengthening mid-level flow will likely contribute to pulsing strong or isolated severe convection each afternoon, with a pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary being the focus for stronger activity. Flood concerns may increase by midweek locally in this pattern, as training of thunderstorms over saturated grounds becomes a daily occurrence. Temperatures will still climb to around 90 or the lower 90s early in the week, but could decrease somewhat by midweek as convection becomes numerous and earlier in the day.

MARINE.

A trough will remain situated just west of our GA waters through the weekend, keeping the axis of weak Atlantic ridging positioned across south FL, resulting in prevailing south-southwesterly winds during the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon over land and may impact the near shore waters during the late afternoon and evening hours, with scattered activity possible offshore during the overnight hours. The Atlantic sea breeze will develop each afternoon, with winds becoming onshore over the near shore waters, followed by southerly evening wind surges. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through early next week. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms may increase early next week as a frontal boundary stalls just to the west of the GA waters.

Rip Currents: A small but persistent long period east- southeasterly ocean swell will keep a low-end moderate risk in place at the northeast FL beaches each afternoon during the next few days.

FIRE WEATHER.

Thunderstorm activity will be slow moving this afternoon and again on Thursday, creating the risk for localized flooding and numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Outside of thunderstorm activity, light west-southwesterly transport winds today will shift to southwesterly on Thursday, with marginally low daytime dispersion values expected area-wide. Onshore surface winds will develop each afternoon at coastal locations, with sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 mph for locations east of I-95. Southwesterly transport winds will increase to 10-15 mph on Friday for locations along and north of I-10, where good dispersion values are forecast on Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY.

The St. Marys River north of Macclenny and at the Trader's Hill gauge downstream of Macclenny are currently in minor flood, with levels north of Macclenny forecast to crest by late Thursday. Additional heavy downpours may keep minor flooding going through the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 74 91 73 91 73 / 50 70 40 70 20 SSI 77 89 78 91 78 / 40 30 30 50 40 JAX 74 93 74 93 74 / 40 50 30 60 20 SGJ 75 90 76 93 77 / 40 50 40 50 30 GNV 73 92 74 92 74 / 40 40 20 60 10 OCF 73 91 74 92 74 / 30 40 20 50 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NFDF1 9 mi44 min SW 8 G 8.9 78°F 78°F
DMSF1 11 mi44 min 88°F
BLIF1 12 mi44 min S 6 G 7
LTJF1 15 mi50 min 83°F 72°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 17 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 83°F 85°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 30 mi44 min S 2.9 G 6 87°F 86°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 37 mi32 min 84°F 85°F3 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 37 mi32 min W 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 86°F1016.3 hPa (+1.0)73°F
41117 38 mi36 min 85°F2 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 50 mi47 min WSW 1.9 80°F 1017 hPa74°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL3 mi39 minSW 810.00 miOvercast78°F73°F87%1015.5 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL10 mi39 minSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1015.7 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL10 mi42 minSW 56.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain77°F73°F89%1016.3 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL15 mi36 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F75°F85%1015.4 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL17 mi40 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F70°F69%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNIP

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W8W4SW3SW5SW5SW4W5NW3SW6CalmW4W6NW5W33NE4SE5SE7SE64NW10
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NE6N3W5W6SW5SW4SW6W3CalmW6W8NW4NW7N6NE5SE6SE7SE5SE5SE10SE9SW23
G29

Tide / Current Tables for Ortega River Entrance, Florida (5)
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Ortega River Entrance
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Wed -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.80.91110.90.80.70.60.50.50.50.70.811.11.11.110.90.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:50 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:19 PM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.600.81.10.70.1-0.7-1.6-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.50.111.61.510.2-0.8-1.5-1.7-1.5-1.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.