Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:22 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM   Moonset 1:36 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 313 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots early this evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Friday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 313 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist into the weekend as surface high pressure continues to build across the area. Slightly higher winds will be possible each afternoon near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 021955 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 355 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridging aloft will persist through the near term with high pressure building in at the surface. As a result, south- southwesterly flow will continue pushing moisture across the area with higher dewpoints likely along the Emerald Coast. Tonight, with ridging aloft, a warm inversion above the surface should persist resulting in some fog formation along the Emerald Coast pushing somewhat inland. Locally dense fog is possible with visibilities less than 1 mile in some spots. Overnight low temperatures will generally hover around the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow, isolated thunderstorms are possible along the FL Big Bend and SW GA as the seabreeze pushes inland in the afternoon hours.
Additionally, a remnant boundary propagating east from earlier convection over AL may enhance precipitation chances across our SW GA counties. PoPs will generally range from 15-30% across the area due to weaker forcing. Inverted-V soundings appear evident with DCAPE approaching 800J/kg, suggesting that a couple stronger gusts may be possible with these storms. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area in the afternoon.

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

No new changes to the forecast as a couple of shortwaves remain on track to pass over the SE this weekend. The first will occur on Saturday, which will allow for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop over the region. This will be our best chance for rain as Sunday's shortwave passes more to our north where the best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be in SW GA counties and across the eastern Big Bend. Severe weather isn't anticipated either day, but a few gusty winds and heavier showers will be possible.

After that, ensembles favor upper level ridging to take over.
However, to the west near the Continental Divide and Plains, a broad trough develops. This could flatten the ridge towards the southeast. At the surface, high pressure will influence the region. It may feel like summer with temperatures rising into the upper 80s and low 90s over the weekend, with low to mid 90s expected next week. Overnight lows become toasty, with the mid to upper 60s generally holding, though the low 70s are possible by midweek.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at KABY and KVLD through the period. KTLH and KDHN may see MVFR visibilities tomorrow morning, though there is some uncertainty. The site with the highest confidence is KECP where IFR visibilities will occur beginning as early as 04z. Reduced visibilities will occur at the aforementioned sites through 13-14z before clearing up.

MARINE
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the weekend. There may be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and moist conditions will continue across the area as southerly flow persist over the next several days. With this, the seabreeze will push inland each afternoon with isolated thunderstorms forming. Gusty and erratic winds with lightning are possible near and within these storms. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase notably on Saturday, particularly for SW GA. Patchy to locally dense fog is possible each morning due to the warm and moist pattern, particularly for our FL counties. Notably high mixing heights will yield fair to generally good dispersions in the afternoon, though some areas could see locally elevated dispersions if the seabreeze is stronger than forecast.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Minor river flooding remains ongoing at Manatee Springs along the Suwannee with water levels expected to fall into action stage tonight or early tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, the following rivers are expected to remain in action stage over the next several days: the St. Marks at Newport, the lower Suwannee, and the Aucilla on Lamont. Outside of that, no new riverine flooding is expected.

In terms of rain fall, we could see up to around 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain along and east of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers. Areas west will be lighter and range around 0.0 to 0.25 inches of rain.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 65 90 68 88 / 0 30 10 50 Panama City 66 84 68 85 / 0 10 0 30 Dothan 63 90 67 87 / 0 20 10 50 Albany 65 90 67 87 / 0 30 30 70 Valdosta 67 90 68 86 / 20 20 20 60 Cross City 65 90 65 87 / 10 10 10 40 Apalachicola 69 80 69 80 / 0 0 0 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Thu -- 02:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
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Panama City Beach
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