Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 3:32 AM   Moonset 4:16 PM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 358 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet this evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers early this evening. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 358 Pm Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through Thursday. A frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will lead to stronger offshore winds of 15 to 20 knots.

FXUS64 KLIX 052056 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave ridge axis will remain over the area through Tuesday night, and this will help suppress most convective activity even as a series of weak shortwave features rides over the top of the ridge axis and through the Lower Mississippi Valley. At most, an isolated to widely scattered shower or storm could develop during peak heating hours tomorrow afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon, and the most likely area for development will be across Southwest Mississippi and portions of Louisiana to the north of I-12. Any convection will remain weak and low-topped as a fairly strong capping inversion in the mid-levels remains in place. Any convection will quickly dissipate after sunset with dry conditions expected by the early evening hours both tonight, tomorrow night, and Tuesday night. The combination of lighter boundary layer flow and ample low level moisture will support some patchy fog and low stratus development each night. The fog and stratus will quickly clear by mid-morning as temperatures warm. Have stuck with NBM deterministic values for temperatures through Tuesday night with readings rising into the mid to upper 80s and lows dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The deep layer shortwave ridge axis will continue to induce strong subsidence across the area on Wednesday. This will result in a very strong mid-level capping inversion, and have no mention of rain in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will also warm beneath the highly subsident airmass with readings projected to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A few locations could approach record high levels. Even warmer temperaturesare expected on Thursday as highs climb into the low to mid 90s over inland areas. These high temperatures will likely break records and those who are most vulnerable to heat should limit outdoor activities on Thursday. These warm values on Thursday are being driven by both ample subsidence aloft and some compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front.

The cold front will move into the Thursday night, and some scattered convection will likely develop ahead of the front as it moves into a moist and unstable airmass in the low levels. Lapse rates will improve aloft as the influence of the ridge diminishes, and there could be a stronger storm or two as the front moves through. Otherwise, conditions do not look favorable for severe convection due to a lack of substantial shear. The front will clear the coast on Friday and a cooler and more stable high pressure system will advect into the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will fall back to more normal levels in the lower 80s on Friday, and could even cool to slightly below average by Saturday as the heart of the northern stream cold pool moves in.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions and southerly winds of around 10 knots are expected through the evening hours. After 06z, conditions look favorable for some boundary decoupling to occur over inland areas, and have included IFR ceilings and visibilities in the forecast from 08z to 14z at MCB and BTR. At ASD and HDC, IFR conditions will be shorter in duration and more conditioned on how light boundary layer gets tonight. Given the lower probabilities for these terminals, have only included a TEMPO group between 09z and 13z for IFR ceilings and visibilities. The remainder of the terminals will see a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings between 08z and 16z.

MARINE
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Through Wednesday, the region will remain on the western periphery of a broad surface high. This will keep prevailing southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet in place. By Thursday, the approach of a cold front will result in a slightly tighter pressure gradient over the coastal waters, and this should push winds into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots. The front is expected to slip through the waters on Friday. Winds will shift to the north and remain elevated in exercise caution range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 86 69 87 / 10 40 20 20 BTR 70 87 72 89 / 10 40 10 10 ASD 71 86 72 88 / 10 20 10 10 MSY 73 85 74 87 / 20 20 10 10 GPT 73 84 74 85 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 71 84 72 84 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sun -- 04:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:10 PM CDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Long Point
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Sun -- 04:28 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM CDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:15 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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