Sunday, June13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay St. Louis, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:00PM Sunday June 13, 2021 8:22 AM CDT (13:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 10:58PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 348 Am Cdt Sun Jun 13 2021
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 348 Am Cdt Sun Jun 13 2021
Synopsis..High pressure remains centered in the north-central gulf through the weekend. The pressure field aloft will breakdown first half of the week with the potential for a broad area of low pressure in the sw gulf by mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay St. Louis, MS
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location: 30.31, -89.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 130848 AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service New Orleans LA 348 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

SHORT TERM. The current upper level pattern puts the CWA right on the edge of northerly flow as high pressure is centered near the intersection of West Texas, New Mexico and Mexico. A trough is oriented southwest to northeast across the southeast CONUS. As this trough expands southwest today it will extend further over the CWA and erode more of the ridge aloft. This will allow for decrease in subsidence and therefore increased convection development. Expect coverage to jump across the CWA to close to over 50%. Looking at CAMs, there's a fairly decent chance to have an MCS track into the CWA from southern MS. Even if that doesn't happen, late day convection is certainly possible. Sounding profiles look quite conducive for producing wind gusts with an inverted-V low level and ample instability aloft. DCAPE approaches 1500j/kg late in the day when convection potential is greatest. Therefore, main concern with any storms today will be strong and damaging winds.

From a temp perspective, it looks like another hot day in store for the Gulf Coast. Forecast highs are on the warm side of guidance which is mostly NAM values but also some NBM mixed in. That puts highs will into the low to mid 90s. Combine that with daytime dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and heat indicies will easily top 100 degrees before noon. Several locations will be close to heat advisory but at this time, looks to be too isolated to merit a heat advisory.

Monday and Tuesday will mimic Sunday similar temps and rain chances.

MEFFER

LONG TERM. No significant changes in the extended forecast. Summer pattern still looks like it will be in charge of the area with warm temps continuing but could be less humid as the L/W trough eats away at the eastern side of the ridge. Biggest questions continue to be on the future evolution of the possible tropical system in the Bay of Campeche later in the week. Most of the medium range guidance and ensembles are in general agreement through Thursday but the ensemble means appear to be a little more bullish on the ridge building farther east Friday and again that could be the biggest key on what happens Friday and next weekend. Overall the NBM is a good compromise and will stick close to it.

On Wednesday we will start off with a very amplified pattern over the CONUS with the ridge to our west and L/W trough to our east but on Thursday the trough will begin to shift east off the coast. This will allow the ridge to begin to build back to the east. That combined with what looks like drier air pushing in from the north could help to knock down the humidity some and likely keep the region mostly rain free prior to what may be a very wet period.

Again there is still quite a bit of uncertainty and confidence in any solution or level of impacts is extremely low at this time. NHC is still highlighting an area in the Bay of Campeche for development . 10% in the next 48 hours and 40% over the next 5 days. If anything develops it will likely be slow but could occur by midweek. After that the track of this system will, like we said the previous night, be highly dependent on where and when it develops if it does and the ridge. Right now if I was to pick out the biggest factor in eventual evolution of this possible system is the ridge. trends continue to show that the ridge will build into the Lower MS Valley and across TX and into Mexico. This would lead to a slow moving system likely drifting north. This system looks like it will be messy and there is a good chance that the heavy rain could be well displaced from the center but given what appears to be a slow moving system rainfall looks like it could be a considerable concern. There is no reason showing any details at this time because the greatest impacts still look to be around days 6-9.

/CAB/

AVIATION. VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals over the next 12 hours. Mid level CU field will develop mid morning and last until about sunset. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms may develop late in the day. Coverage will increase enough to necessitate VCTS mention in the TAFs. Brief IFR/LIFR conditions are possible if a storm passes directly over a terminal.

MEFFER

MARINE. Westerly flow will be maintained today with upper ridge situated west of the local area and trough to the northeast. The surface pressure field will then breakdown through the first half of the week. This will cause winds and seas to relax and lead to winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. The remainder of the forecast period will be determined by the strength and track of a potential low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 92 75 93 73 / 60 20 50 10 BTR 94 76 94 75 / 60 30 50 10 ASD 94 75 94 74 / 50 30 50 20 MSY 96 79 93 78 / 50 30 50 20 GPT 93 76 92 76 / 50 30 40 20 PQL 96 73 92 74 / 40 30 40 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 1 mi52 min W 7 G 12 90°F 84°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 36 mi52 min WNW 9.9 G 11 81°F 87°F1012.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 41 mi52 min 80°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 44 mi52 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 1012.7 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi52 min WNW 2.9 G 8 82°F 85°F1012.3 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS8 mi32 minNW 67.00 miFair81°F77°F89%1012.9 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS15 mi29 minWNW 510.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1012.3 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS23 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair81°F73°F78%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW7NW10NW8W8NW6N8NW6NW7NW5CalmCalmCalm------------------CalmNW6
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2 days agoSW6
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SW8SW5SW6S10SW8SW8------------------CalmSW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM CDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:47 PM CDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.50.711.31.51.71.81.921.91.81.61.41.10.80.50.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:22 PM CDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.3-0.200.20.50.81.11.31.61.822.12.121.81.61.310.60.30.1-0.1-0.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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