Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay St. Louis, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 4:08 AM CST (10:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 318 Am Cst Wed Nov 25 2020
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west late in the evening, then becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 318 Am Cst Wed Nov 25 2020
Synopsis.. Onshore flow will continue today as a cold front approaches the area from the west. This front is expected to stall near the coast later Wednesday, then retreat north as a warm front Thursday. A series of strong disturbances will move near the gulf coast Friday through Saturday night before a much stronger cold front moves off the coast Sunday. Cold high pressure will build in its wake early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay St. Louis, MS
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location: 30.31, -89.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 242156 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

SHORT TERM. Maritime return flow is underway across the region with a tightening pressure gradient in response to developing cyclone in the high plains this afternoon. This system is expected to lift through the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley Wednesday. Associated cold front will be moving into the forecast area but will lose some of its support as the boundary elongates. There is an expectation of sufficient frontal forcing and moisture depth to support strong to marginally severe thunderstorms during max heating of the day along and just in advance of the front. The convection will be losing this support after sunset with primarily showers likely Wednesday evening. The primary mode would be a damaging wind threat though some rotations may occur with the better formed storms between noon and 5 pm. Models are hitting hard on fog formation that may become dense in some areas, mainly in the post-frontal air due to modest advection, residual moisture from antecedent rainfall and a flat wind field. Fog will be indicated in the forecast package and should be considered for any late night travel leading into Thanksgiving Day. For Thanksgiving, the models are in somewhat good agreement on solution in that the stationary front transitions and lifts north as a warm front Thursday evening into the overnight hours. This will allow for spurious showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop throughout the day but perhaps at lesser coverage than what is expected Wednesday. Once the front lifts well north of the area, a moderate to strong onshore flow will build into the area as strong troughing takes place over the Plains States. Despite the frontal proximity, temperatures should maintain at above normal levels through Thursday night.

LONG TERM. The extended holiday weekend still looks to be quite inclement as the southern branch flow energizes with deep long-wave troughing in the northern branch and phasing with the southern branch. This will develop a large divergence "crow's foot" pattern over Louisiana by Friday evening where rainfall enhances due to large scale omega and divergence. Several inches of rainfall could occur in an extended band from the divergence point downstream along the frontogenetic region over and north of the surface warm front. Once this impulse runs its course, another highly divergent baroclinic leaf structure develops in response to a digging short-wave/cold pool structure into Texas and Louisiana Saturday. This will bring renewed heavy rainfall typical of a Maddox synoptic heavy rainfall pattern. Several more inches of rainfall is likely to result somewhere within the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. The strong cold pool swings through the Gulf States Sunday to possibly bring some hail and/or graupel during daytime heating, given the model indications of the integrity of the cold pool thicknesses. Strong cold air advection at the surface ensues later Sunday into Monday as deep fetched Canadian air builds into the center of the nation. Very strong radiational cooling is anticipated, which would pose a threat for the first near freeze conditions to the area since last winter. We are now within the window of average first freeze dates at all interior locations, while the near coastal/maritime locations still have a week or two to go. Below is a table of average first freeze dates and the last occurrence date. Note: it has been almost 3 years since New Orleans International Airport recorded a temperature below 32F.

Freeze climatology information:

Location . Average First Freeze . Last Freeze Day Baton Rouge 11/24 Feb 22 2020 McComb 11/15 Feb 29 2020 Slidell WFO 11/19 Feb 28 2020 Slidell City 11/26 Jan 21 2020 Gulfport 12/05 Feb 28 2020 Pascagoula 11/16 Feb 28 2020 New Orleans 12/13 Jan 19 2018

AVIATION. VFR conditions expected this evening with some advancement of midlevel cloudiness. This deck will lower overnight into MVFR levels with some light convection erupting as the column moistens late tonight in the pre-dawn hours. Convection should become more widespread and prevailing generally after sunrise at all terminals except the MS coast, which would likely hold off until after 18Z. After 18Z some brief organized convection along a frontal zone will move eastward through the area but is anticipated to become less organized later in the afternoon. Models are hitting fog formation that may become dense in some locations post-frontal Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will be addressed in subsequent TAF package issuances.

MARINE. Tightening of onshore flow pressure gradient will maintain moderate SE-S winds overnight and early Wednesday morning before relaxing. Headlines were posted for the gulf waters outside the sounds for 15-20 kt and 3-6 ft seas. Cold front doesn't make it into the gulf, or at least not too far off the coast before stalling. This boundary will retreat northward Thursday. Unsettled weather is expected through Sunday with rounds of storms and widespread rainfall that may, at times result in squall bands and maritime mesocyclones that could produce strong waterspouts. A strong cold front is expected to move off the coast Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to result heading into Monday as very cold continental air builds into the north gulf.

DECISION SUPPORT. DSS code . Blue. Activities . Critical IDSS site support; NASA SLS support; Assessing heavy rain/severe threat

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 64 77 59 76 / 20 20 20 10 BTR 66 80 58 78 / 20 30 10 20 ASD 63 79 62 77 / 0 30 10 10 MSY 67 79 65 77 / 0 30 10 10 GPT 65 75 64 75 / 10 20 10 20 PQL 62 80 63 79 / 10 20 10 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.

24/RR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 1 mi51 min S 7 G 9.9 71°F 64°F1017.5 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 36 mi51 min SE 9.9 G 14 69°F 70°F1016.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 41 mi51 min 67°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 44 mi51 min SSE 17 G 19 72°F 1017.7 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi51 min S 6 G 11 72°F 67°F1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS15 mi76 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast69°F64°F84%1017.4 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS23 mi73 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast70°F64°F83%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------Calm553SE8SE7SE7
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1 day ago------------------N10N11
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N10--N8N5N4N4CalmNE3
2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NW8NW8NW6NW6
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NW6N5CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:14 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:03 AM CST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:34 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:28 PM CST     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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110.90.90.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.80.80.9111.11.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:13 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:41 PM CST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:34 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:11 PM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.70.70.80.911.11.11.111

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.