Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrington, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:15PM Sunday January 19, 2020 6:56 AM CST (12:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:53AMMoonset 2:00PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 314 Am Cst Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 314 Am Cst Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis..Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist into Tuesday in the wake of a cold frontal passage early this morning. A light to moderate easterly flow follows for Wednesday then strengthens somewhat by Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrington, FL
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location: 30.33, -87.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 191143 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 543 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

UPDATE. The forecast remains on track early this morning. Latest radar shows most of the shower activity has progressed to the east. Some light showers continue over the marine areas, but this is expected to dissipate/move out of the area within a couple hours. Winds have picked up behind the front as well, with wind gusts between 20 and 25 knots in the Mobile area in the last hour or so. Did adjust sky cover slightly since the clouds seem to be slower in progressing to the southeast according to satellite imagery. Other than this, no other changes were needed at this time. /26

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . A cold front is currently moving through the area. This feature brought light showers to the TAF sites earlier this morning; but, the radar indicates that most of the shower activity has moved on to the east, with a few light showers currently over our marine areas. All shower activity is expected to end for our area in the next couple of hours. Low-end MVFR CIGs were reported at the TAF sites at issuance; however, this is expected to lift quickly this morning to VFR as drier, colder air is filtered in from the north behind the front. Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast through the day as well, with clear skies expected by late afternoon/early evening. Lastly, strong winds will be a concern today, with sustained north winds generally between 10 and 20 knots through the day and for most of tonight. Winds gusts between 20 and 25 knots are also expected, with locally higher gusts to 30 knots possible. /26

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 323 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE . Due to persistent moderate to strong northerly winds expected through early afternoon Tuesday, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended and is now in effect from 3 AM this morning until 12 PM Tuesday for southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, and the coastal waters. /26

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 249 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/ . Upper level zonal flow continues over the northern Gulf coast early this morning as a northern stream trough progresses over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley regions. This feature will then move over the northeastern CONUS by Monday morning, with generally zonal flow maintaining its hold over our area. At the surface, a cold front is currently progressing over our area, and radar shows light showers out ahead of it.

No lightning has been reported in the last 30 minutes or so; therefore, the threat of thunder has diminished. Expecting shower activity to end for our area by mid-morning as well. Furthermore, winds will begin to increase to be between 10 and 15 knots this morning, with higher winds near the coast. Sky cover will also begin to decrease from northwest to southeast during the day today. By this evening, skies are expected to be clear as surface high pressure builds into the southeastern CONUS from the west. Dry weather will then comprise the rest of the near term period.

Dry weather is expected into tomorrow; however, it will be much colder than we've seen recently. In fact, temperatures will be below normal for this time of year after being well above normal for a stretch. Highs today are only likely to reach the lower to mid 50s. By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, low temperatures will then drop into the upper 20s further inland and into the lower 30s near the coast.

Lastly, a HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect through this afternoon. /26

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/ . An upper trof pattern over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic Tuesday night followed by an upper ridge building from the central states into the eastern states. A deep layer dry northerly flow prevails as a large surface ridge builds into the eastern states with cool/cold conditions expected for the forecast area. Highs on Monday and Tuesday range from the mid 40s inland to near 50 close to the coast, values which are about 10 degrees below normal. Lows Monday night range from the mid 20s inland to near 30 close to the coast followed by similar temperatures for Tuesday night. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . The upper ridge over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic through Thursday as an amplifying upper trof advances from the northwest states into the central states. There continues to be uncertainty with this next system, but current indications are that an upper low evolves over the central Plains within the upper trof pattern Thursday night and then moves off towards the Great Lakes through Saturday. An associated surface low moves from the southern Plains towards the New England area during the period, but depending on how the upper pattern plays out, this system will bring a cold front will move through the forecast area as early as Thursday night or as late as Friday night. Dry conditions continue through Wednesday followed by slight chance to chance pops returning to much of the area on Thursday. Likely pops follow for Friday then mostly dry conditions are expected for Saturday. Instability continues to look rather limited ahead of/along the cold front but have opted to keep mention of a slight chance of thunder for Thursday night into Friday and will continue to monitor. /29

MARINE . Northerly flow has developed as a cold front continues to progress over the area late tonight/early this morning. The front is expected to continue eastward and be to our east by mid-morning, however. Offshore flow will become moderate to strong this morning and persist into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 3 AM this morning until 12 PM Monday for the increased northerly winds over the coastal waters, as well as the Mississippi Sound and Mobile Bay. Although, this may need to be extended into Tuesday. Northerly winds and seas will slowly start to diminish Tuesday, then become easterly by early Wednesday morning. Moderate easterly flow is expected through late week, but winds will shift to be from the southeast and begin to increase early Friday as another cold front approaches from the west. /26

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ630.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi57 min N 12 G 19 57°F 1021 hPa (+2.1)
PPTA1 13 mi57 min 58°F 1021 hPa (+1.7)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 22 mi37 min E 18 G 23 60°F 65°F1021.3 hPa58°F
WBYA1 27 mi57 min 65°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 28 mi72 min 56°F 1022 hPa51°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 38 mi57 min N 30 G 34 56°F 1020.7 hPa (+1.5)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 40 mi57 min N 25 G 28 57°F 1021.1 hPa (+1.8)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 43 mi57 min N 16 56°F 1021 hPa (+1.7)
MBPA1 43 mi57 min 54°F 43°F
PTOA1 44 mi57 min 52°F 41°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 45 mi75 min N 11 G 19 61°F 60°F1022.9 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 46 mi63 min 53°F 59°F1023.1 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi87 min NNE 21 58°F 1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi64 minN 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1020.8 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL19 mi82 minNNW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast58°F54°F88%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN13N13N7N13----------------NE7NE7E11E13E13
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2 days agoSE4SE3SE3S3----------------CalmCalmNW3N3N33NW10N7NE9N7NE9N8

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:52 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:03 AM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:00 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:14 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:25 PM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.60.70.80.90.90.80.70.60.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:52 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:37 AM CST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:59 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:48 PM CST     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.20.40.60.70.911.11.110.90.80.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.