Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrington, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday July 4, 2020 12:06 AM CDT (05:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 346 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 3 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Winds light becoming south 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Winds light becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 346 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 3 2020
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest flow will prevail through Wednesday. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are possible through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrington, FL
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location: 30.33, -87.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 040346 AAB AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1046 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/. The scattered evening showers, with an isolated thunderstorm or two, will continue to slowly dissipate through about 1 AM, followed by dry conditions the remainder of the night. Temperatures will not need to drop much further, especially in areas that received rain, to reach the overnight forecast lows in the low/mid 70s, with upper 70s along the coast. The weak upper trough over the north central gulf coast, which extends to a western Atlantic upper trof, evolves into a broad upper low on Saturday, and then back to weak upper trough Saturday night through Sunday. A weak surface low pressure area across the forecast area will slowly weaken further into a trough across the deep south through Sunday afternoon. Abundant deep layer moisture will remain in place over the 4th of July weekend, with PWAT values between 1.90 to 2.25 inches.

The biggest differences between the models are in the subtle features in the boundary layer that will eventually determine which areas have the best chance of receiving precipitation. There is also an instability factor involved, much of it driven by breaks in the clouds aided by an intense summer sun at its peak, and this is where the models have the greatest differences that will determine which locations have the potential of being impacted with the heaviest rainfall and strong outflow winds. An average of the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM12 MLCAPE values for Saturday range from 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and 1400 to 2200 J/kg for Sunday. 0-6 km bulk shear will be very low and mainly 10 knots or less. Precipitation loading looks to be the sole potential initiating mechanism for stronger storms over the weekend, and one or two severe storm will be possible.

Highs both afternoons range from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows Saturday night will range from 71 to 74 degrees inland, and from 75 to 79 degrees along the coast. Heat index values both days will range from 95 to 100. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend. /22

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . Scattered evening thunderstorms, a few strong to severe, will continue to move slowly westward across southwest Alabama and into southeast Mississippi through midnight. After a lull in convection through the remainder of the night,numerous showers and thunderstorms are once again expected to develop through mid morning and persist through the afternoon hours, with the highest coverage expected along and south of U.S. Highway 84. VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with the exception of upper-end MVFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities that will accompany the stronger showers and storms. /22

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 358 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/ . A weak upper trof over the north central Gulf coast, which extends to a western Atlantic upper trof, evolves into a broad upper low on Saturday as the western Atlantic upper trof weakens. A weak surface trof which currently extends across the northeastern Gulf to the northern Florida peninsula shifts northward into the forecast area this afternoon, aided by a weak sea breeze. The weak surface trof drifts southward to be oriented near the coast overnight then returns inland again on Saturday. Elevated deep layer moisture over the area with precipitable water values of 1.7-2.1 inches increases further through Saturday to range from 2.1-2.25 inches. MLCAPE values today will be up to 1500-2000 J/kg with similar values expected for Saturday. A comparison of model soundings for this afternoon and Saturday afternoon show that more moisture will likely be available in the 900-750 mb layer (albeit with some uncertainty) indicating a more favorable convective environment on Saturday. Wet bulb zero values will be near 12 kft today then are expected to trend higher to near 14 kft on Saturday. 0-6 km bulk shear will be very low and mainly 10 knots or less. The weak surface trof, daytime heating and shortwaves moving through the weak upper trof pattern will support scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms this afternoon. Have updated to adjust pops based on the latest Convection Allowing Models (CAMS) which favor the best coverage of convection over portions of the western Florida panhandle and south central Alabama this afternoon, and also made other minor adjustments. The pattern looks similar for Saturday with shortwaves rotating within the broad upper low which when combined with the expected more favorable convective environment will support likely to categorical pops. Precipitation loading combined with drier air aloft, centered near 600 mb, will support the potential for stronger storms today, and cannot rule out a marginally severe storm. Model soundings look decidedly more moist overall on Saturday so precipitation loading looks to be the sole potential initiating mechanism for stronger storms, but severe storm development is not expected. Highs today range from the lower 90s inland to around 90 at the coast, then highs on Saturday will be moderated by the expected increased coverage of convection and be mostly in the upper 80s. Heat index values will be 95 to 104 today and Saturday. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29

SHORT TERM /Saturday Night Through Monday Night/ . The southeastern CONUS will continue to be under the influence of a broad, diffuse upper level low. At the surface, a stalled boundary over the northern Gulf coast will remain in place through the short term period. PWATs will also be elevated, ranging from around 2 inches to about 2.3 inches area-wide through Monday night. In fact, from Monday afternoon through Monday night is when the PWATs are likely to be the greatest. This, in conjunction with MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg at night and between 500-1000 J/kg during the day, will lead to daily chances of showers and storms through the weekend and into early next week. Although, the best chances of shower/storm activity over land will be during peak heating hours (in the afternoon). Meanwhile, the better chances for the coast and open Gulf waters will occur at night.

High temperatures will be a bit cooler than we've seen recently due to cloud cover, with values in the mid to upper 80s Sunday afternoon and in the lower to mid 80s Monday afternoon. However, it will continue to be muggy as dew points will be in the mid to upper 70s. This will result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s Sunday afternoon and in the lower to mid 90s Monday afternoon. Not much relief will be found at night, since low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. Lastly, a MODERATE RISK of rip currents exists through Monday night. /26

EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/ . The broad, diffuse upper level low will begin to slowly move northeast and phase into the northern stream flow at the start of the extended term, with high pressure building over the Gulf through midweek. An upper level ridge will then strengthen over the central CONUS by late in the week. At the same time, a shortwave trough will begin to traverse the Mississippi Valley and move southeastward. At the surface, the stalled boundary over the northern Gulf coast will meander back northward, with a surface low forming over the Carolinas by Wednesday. This feature will then slowly move towards the Atlantic and surface high pressure will take hold over the Gulf through late week.

The aforementioned pattern will keep an unsettled, yet somewhat diurnal, weather pattern through the extended term. Expecting the best chances of showers and storms during the day (time of peak heating) with isolated to scattered showers/storms at night. High temperatures will increase from the mid to upper 80s Tuesday to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s once again by Friday afternoon. Lows will continue to be in the lower to mid 70s north of I-10 and in the mid to upper 70s south. Furthermore, muggy conditions will persist as dew points remain in the mid to upper 70s through the work week. Thus, heat indices will generally be in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday afternoon; although, some spots could see heat indices around 100 degrees. Heat indices from midweek through Friday are then expected to be in the lower to mid 100s. /26

MARINE . No impacts are forecast except winds and waves will be locally higher near showers and thunderstorms. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi48 min E 1 G 2.9 79°F 86°F1013.1 hPa
PPTA1 13 mi36 min 81°F 1013.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 22 mi36 min E 5.8 G 7.8 81°F 84°F1012.9 hPa76°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 27 mi96 min E 7 80°F 1012.9 hPa
WBYA1 27 mi48 min 84°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 28 mi81 min 78°F 1013 hPa75°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 38 mi54 min N 8.9 G 11 83°F 1012.9 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 40 mi66 min N 7 G 8 82°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.1)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 43 mi66 min NW 6 80°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.4)
MBPA1 43 mi72 min 79°F 76°F
PTOA1 44 mi48 min 78°F 73°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 45 mi48 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 84°F1013.4 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 46 mi48 min 85°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi66 min NNE 13 -40°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL2 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1012.7 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi73 minNNE 310.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1013.1 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL19 mi91 minE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNPA

Wind History from NPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmW3NW4NW4--N3NW4------3S8S8S13--SW13
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1 day ago----NW4SW5SW5CalmNW53N5N8NW7SW34S8SW15SW13SW10
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2 days agoSW4SW3SW4W5--CalmCalmCalmCalm3NW5NW5W64--SW13SW13SW13SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:46 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM CDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:44 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.10.30.50.70.91.21.31.41.51.51.41.31.10.90.60.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:39 AM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:46 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:00 PM CDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:44 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-00.20.40.70.91.21.41.61.81.91.91.81.61.41.10.80.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.