Saturday, February27, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Austin, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:29PM Saturday February 27, 2021 3:28 AM CST (09:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Austin, TX
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location: 30.36, -97.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 270807 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 207 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday).

Warm front has begun its journey north having reached a Columbus to Karnes City to Laredo line as of 1 AM CST. Models are in agreement in moving it north across all of South Central Texas today. Areas of fog, some locally dense, and drizzle/light rain showers are expected to precede the frontal passage. In the wake of the frontal passage, southerly winds bring much warmer and well above seasonal normal temperatures this afternoon, as well as a warm and rather humid airmass tonight into Sunday morning. Patchy fog and drizzle are possible late tonight into early Sunday morning in this humid airmass.

The main forecast challenge in the short term is the timing of the next cold front. ARW and NMM are the fastest bringing it into the Hill Country late morning and surging to near the Coastal Plains by evening while the other models show a mid to late afternoon entrance into the Hill Country and our Central Texas counties. Will favor the model consensus, at this time. With a later frontal intrusion, warm and well above normal temperatures are expected on Sunday. Upward forcing by the front and moderate instability leads to chances of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday).

Upper level pattern Sunday evening will consist of a positively tilted trough stretching from the desert southwest into the central Plains. Global guidance has depicted a piece of this energy cutting off for several cycles. The latest 00Z GFS has backed off on this and is more progressive with the trough overnight into TX, but current thinking is this is an outlier. The tail end of the WRF runs seem to agree with the open wave and thus depict a faster FROPA overnight, however they were overzealous with the last front. The NAM and it's nest are more in line with slower solution presented by the majority of the global models and so for the time being we will lean on that solution.

What does this mean for our weather? Showers and a few thunderstorms along the front, particularly for the east half of our region Sunday night. A 700mb capping inversion will make storm development a difficult prospect despite the decent CAPE/shear parameters and should limit any severe potential for our area. And as the colder air quickly filters in, CAPE will rapidly diminish from north to south and put an end to any thunder whatsoever by around or just after sunrise Monday. However, areas of showers will continue through the day as isentropic ascent takes hold. It will be a cool day with highs in the low 50s north and low 60s far south and along the Rio Grande.

Showers will likely linger Monday night primarily across the Coastal Plains, gradually weakening and exiting most likely by around sunrise Tuesday although perhaps a little closer to midday. In all, a widespread 0.2" or more of beneficial rainfall is forecast with higher amounts as you go northeast increasing to about 0.75-1" with isolated higher totals possible. Concerns for locally heavy rainfall have abated despite the ample atmospheric moisture as capping will limit widespread thunderstorm development, the front will remain progressive, and post-frontal isentropic forcing does not look as strong as previous model runs.

Mid-level ridging will amplify into mid-week with a dry and warming period. GFS and many ensemble members are hinting at a stronger spring-like low to potentially cross the southern Plains and bring a strong cold front across south-central TX in the Thursday or Friday time frame next week. The ECMWF is showing a slightly less robust and later system at this time. Will continue to monitor as this could provide the first good chance for strong storms of 2021, but a lot would have to come together for that to happen. For now, far too much uncertainty.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 1051 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

AVIATION . The general TAF trend from the 00z TAFs is ongoing across South Central Texas. Lower cigs and visibility have moved in across the Hill Country and this should spread towards the Interstate 35 TAFs between 07z and 08z. Brief clearing took place around SAT/SSF this evening, but ceilings should start to fill in shortly. The biggest change from the 00z TAFs is that ceilings have already built into DRT and should stick around for most of the night. Ceilings and visibility are still anticipated to drop through the night to IFR and LIFR conditions with drizzle around most of the night. Improvement will be slow during the day on Saturday, but VFR should prevail by mid-afternoon. An early look at tomorrow night into Sunday AM appears to show another night of dropping ceilings and visibility. Light north winds should continue until the warm front marches north across South Central Texas later tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Austin Camp Mabry 78 66 76 48 54 / 20 - 50 80 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 66 78 49 54 / 20 - 40 80 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 67 80 51 55 / 20 10 30 70 60 Burnet Muni Airport 74 63 74 45 51 / 20 10 60 70 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 62 82 53 61 / - - 10 50 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 65 75 46 52 / 20 - 60 70 70 Hondo Muni Airport 79 63 79 51 60 / 10 - 10 60 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 78 65 78 50 55 / 20 10 30 70 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 80 69 80 55 59 / 20 10 40 70 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 66 77 51 57 / 20 10 30 70 60 Stinson Muni Airport 79 66 78 53 58 / 20 - 20 70 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Short-Term/Aviation . 04 Long-Term . KCW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Austin City, Austin Camp Mabry, TX3 mi37 minN 07.00 miOvercast58°F54°F87%1012.3 hPa
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX13 mi33 minENE 41.25 miFog/Mist56°F55°F96%1012.5 hPa
Austin Executive Airport, TX13 mi53 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1013.2 hPa
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, TX14 mi35 minN 36.00 miFog/Mist58°F54°F87%1012.2 hPa
Georgetown, Georgetown Municipal Airport, TX24 mi32 minN 05.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KATT

Wind History from ATT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5CalmCalm4NW43CalmN4CalmCalm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE5NE7N7NE6NE5N56NE5NE744N5NE33N65544N44CalmN8
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2 days ago5SW5SW434SW8
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SW6--W4W443Calm3CalmNE6------NE54NE3--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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