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FXUS64 KEWX 281107 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 607 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Points

* Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms early this morning, mainly west of I-35.
* All hazards possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.
* Storms will likely re-intensify this afternoon across areas north and east of Austin, with all hazards possible once again before storms push east of the area.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across the Edwards Plateau early this morning along a Pacific front/dryline. The storms will continue to progress south and eastward through the remainder of the morning, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as we get closer to sunrise due to an increasingly stable low level airmass. Through the day tomorrow, the low levels will begin to become more unstable due to diurnal heating, so a re- intensification of storms is expected across mainly far northeastern portions of the CWA While storms will continue to push east of the CWA Sunday evening and night, the surface front/dryline will retreat back westward and allow low level cloud cover and some patchy fog to develop during the early morning hours on Monday. We've been advertising a low chance of PoPs across southern and eastern areas during the day Monday as the atmosphere remains unstable, though based off of recent CAM runs, it appears there will not be enough surface or upper level forcing to generate much in the way of convection. Therefore, we have trended PoPs even lower. However, if a storm does manage to fire anywhere, it will be capable of becoming strong to severe with a wind/hail threat.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A series of mid level shortwaves will move over Texas and the Plains states in a west to southwest flow aloft. The dryline likely remains across West Texas, though could move into Val Verde County on Thursday. An upslope flow is expected over the Serranias del Burro of Mexico most days. The recent model suite shows better chances for a cold frontal passage on Friday/Friday night that retreats to the north on Saturday. There remains uncertainty on this frontal passage due to time of year being early May, however a stronger shortwave does move over the Plains to give the front a shove. Otherwise, a moist southerly lower level flow will prevail. These features along with daytime heating should produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms over most of our area. Forecast soundings show generally high CAPE with some shear indicating a potential for at least a few strong to severe storms, at times. In addition, elevated PWs show a potential for locally heavy rains especially where storms train or stall. Above normal temperatures prevail with the exception of the front bringing temperatures closer to normal. Later updates will fine tune the forecast during the next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through south-central Texas and will continue to push east into the afternoon hours. The severe threat has diminished with the storms, though heavy rainfall, lightning, and strong/variable wind gusts will remain possible. MVFR cigs will be in place ahead of the line with rising cloud bases and clearing skies behind the line. Widespread MVFR to possibly IFR cigs will then redevelop during the early morning hours Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 81 69 88 71 / 90 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 66 87 67 / 90 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 82 68 88 70 / 90 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 81 65 86 68 / 80 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 66 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 65 86 66 / 90 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 88 64 91 69 / 70 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 81 66 87 68 / 90 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 71 85 71 / 80 30 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 68 88 70 / 90 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 84 69 89 72 / 90 0 20 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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