Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Navarre Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:43PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 12:12 PM CDT (17:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:02AMMoonset 11:30PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 1014 Am Cdt Tue May 26 2020
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1014 Am Cdt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis..Moderate easterly winds become a light to moderate southeasterly flow this afternoon then transition to a light southerly flow for Wednesday through Saturday. There are indications that a front may push southward through the marine area Saturday night, resulting in a wind shift to an offshore flow.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navarre Beach, FL
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location: 30.37, -86.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 261216 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 716 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/. A large upper level low pressure system positioned over the Southern Plains this morning will drift southeast through mid week. A plume of deep moisture will surge northward today from the Gulf of Mexico with PWATS nearing 2.0 inches by later today. A subtle shortwave trough rounding the base of the associated upper trough to the west will rotate northeastward across the forecast area today. This shortwave combined with the increasing tropical moisture will support numerous showers and thunderstorms today. Coverage will be greatest this afternoon during peak heating. Widespread cloud cover and convective coverage, along with poor mid level lapse rates should keep most storms that develop below severe limits this afternoon. A few stronger wind gusts may be possible with any stronger storms later this afternoon over interior southeast Mississippi, where better heating and stronger instability may develop. Temperatures should remain cooler as compared to previous days due to enhanced coverage of showers and storms. Highs will reach near 80 degrees over interior southwest Alabama to the lower 80s across interior southeast Mississippi, along the I-10 corridor, and at the beaches.

Convective coverage will gradually diminish this evening as any lingering instability wanes. Low clouds and patchy fog will likely develop by late evening and continue through early Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, to the lower 70s from I-10 southward to the beaches.

Another shortwave will approach from the southwest late tonight with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing across coastal Louisiana, which will spread northeast into our forecast area Wednesday morning. Convection should continue through the day across much of the Deep South. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 80s. /JLH

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . IFR cigs along with scattered to numerous showers continue over our TAF sites this morning with MVFR cigs further inland. Visibilities are also reduced early this morning in patchy fog, ranging between 2-4SM. Cigs should gradually lift to MVFR areawide by late morning and prevail through early evening. There should be a brief reduction in coverage of showers before showers and thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon and become numerous in coverage. There may be local reductions in cigs and vsbys in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be from the east between 7-12 kts this morning, gradually diminishing in intensity this afternoon, outside of thunderstorms.

Convective coverage should wane this evening as the atmosphere is overturned. Cigs will gradually lower through the late evening with lower end MVFR cigs again expected, potentially lower to IFR prior to sunrise. There will also be an increase in showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning at KMOB and KBFM. Winds should become light and variable overnight. /JLH

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 339 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/. The upper low located near the ArkLaTex continues to meander slowly east and weaken through the Short Term. Guidance is consistent in advertising drier mid/upper level air moving inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then western portions of the Southeast. Increasing mid/upper level jet dynamics over the forecast area, on the southeast side of the upper low as it moves east, counterbalancing decreasing moisture levels to bring scattered to numerous rain-showers and thunderstorms through the period. Around seasonal temperatures are expected through the Short Term, with overnight low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s northwest of I-65 to low 70s along the coast Wednesday and Thursday nights. High temperatures Thursday in the mid 80s to around 90 are expected.

Daytime instability remains sufficient for some thunderstorms to become stronger (MUCapes rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range during the day) Thursday, with DCapes rising to around 800J/kg. Any thunderstorm becoming tall enough to rise into the drier middle levels of atmosphere may see entrainment of the drier air, and strong downburst winds are possible Thursday into Thursday evening. /16

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/. The weakening upper level low and trough axis will still be located west of the area on Friday. While guidance does show some drier mid level air moving into the area by this point, enough deep layer moisture still persists to keep a chance of showers and storms in the forecast. This trough continues east on Saturday and becomes absorbed by a stronger trough that amplifies along the east coast by Sunday. This is all in response to a very large upper level ridge that is forecast to develop over the central United States. While there is a lingering chance for isolated to scattered showers on Saturday, substantially drier air builds in by Sunday and Monday as a front passes through due to under north to northwest mid/upper level flow. Therefore, we will show a dry forecast for Sunday and Monday as guidance overall has trended drier. If the ECMWF/GFS are correct, we could even see some dewpoints in the 50s by next Monday.

Highs overall will be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots possibly hitting 90 degrees. Lows generally in the mid to upper 60s, however some lows in the lower 60s are possible north of Hwy 84 by next Monday morning as the drier airmass moves into the area in the wake of the frontal passage. 34/JFB

MARINE . A weak surface pressure trough moves north over the Florida Peninsula, bringing moderate to strong east/southeasterly flow to area waters today before easing. Seas highest today due to the strength of the easterly fetch but will trend lower later today and into tonight as winds subside. By the middle of the week, high pressure stretches west over the southeast and favors a continuation in onshore flow which will be light to moderate at times. By the weekend, there are indications that a front may push across the marine area, resulting in a wind shift and a light west to northwest offshore flow in its wake. /10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ631-632- 650-655-670-675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 15 mi54 min S 6 G 9.9 81°F 81°F1013.1 hPa
PPTA1 33 mi42 min 79°F 1013.5 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi32 min E 14 G 16 77°F 78°F1012.9 hPa74°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 47 mi102 min ESE 12 78°F 1012.2 hPa
WBYA1 47 mi54 min 82°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 47 mi87 min 82°F 1013 hPa74°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL14 mi76 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F70°F69%1012.7 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL15 mi19 minSE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F72°F70%1012.7 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL20 mi16 minESE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F69%1012.8 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi16 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1011.3 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL23 mi16 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F71°F65%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRT

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE12SE12S9S11S6S6E4SE5SE3CalmN4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmE4E5E6E9E10
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2 days agoS6SE6SE9S9S11S11S7CalmCalmN3NW3CalmN4NE3NE3N3CalmCalmNE4NE6NE7E7E8SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM CDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:23 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.30.50.60.811.21.51.61.71.81.71.61.41.20.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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East Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:23 AM CDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:01 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:15 PM CDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.200.30.50.811.31.51.71.91.91.91.81.71.41.10.80.50.2-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.