Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Woodlawn Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:20PM Thursday April 22, 2021 8:45 PM CDT (01:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:38PMMoonset 3:32AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 326 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 18 to 23 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 18 to 23 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 326 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis..Moderate southeasterly flow will develop on Friday, before shifting southerly and increasing to moderate to strong overnight ahead of another cold front. Moderate northerly flow is then anticipated in the wake of the second cold front early Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodlawn Beach, FL
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location: 30.37, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 222305 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 605 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon, although showers and storms along with IFR/MVFR ceilings will follow for Friday evening especially over southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. Northeasterly winds around 5 knots tonight become southeast 10 to 15 knots on Friday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/ . Upper ridging will continue through tonight before moving east on Friday. Upper level flow will transition to southwesterly on Friday as an upper level shortwave moves into the southern plains. Deep layer moisture increases late tonight through Friday as sfc high pressure moves east and a southeasterly wind flow develops. As the shortwave ejects northeast Friday, sfc low development takes place in the ArkLaTex region and tracks northeast. A warm frontal boundary extending from this low southeast into the Gulf will begin slowly lifting off to the northeast towards the region going into the short term. As a result, clouds begin increasing over the region from the west with a slight chance of some isolated rain showers over the far southwestern portion of the forecast area by the end of the day on Friday. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through tonight and into early Friday.

Lows tonight range from the mid and upper 40s inland to upper 50s along the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s. /13

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/ . No rest for the weary during the short term period as active weather takes hold Friday night through Saturday afternoon. A potent upper level trough digging across the south-central U.S. during the day Friday will continue east and tilt negative Friday night. Upper level ridging quickly begins to give way to this trough, resulting in split upper level flow and resultant divergence that will serve as the lifting mechanism for our severe weather potential Friday night into Saturday afternoon. After this, broad troughing remains over the area with weakened northwest flow through Sunday night. At the surface, a low pressure system rapidly develops and shifts east- northeast across the ArkLaTex region into northern MS/AL during the day Saturday before ultimately lifting northeast into the Mid- Atlantic states Saturday evening. Surface high pressure takes its place during the day Sunday into Sunday evening.

Severe Weather Potential:

Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible over the CWA, primarily from late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon. All severe hazards are possible, including damaging winds, large hail greater than quarter size (1.00"), and tornadoes (some of which could be strong (EF2+)).

An environment supportive of severe thunderstorms appears to materialize late Friday evening into Friday night, initially with a northward advancing warm front over southwestern AL, southeastern MS, and the FL panhandle depicted by a plume of moisture with surface dewpoints in the upper 60's advancing northward. Any thunderstorm activity with this will likely be characterized by limited surface based and mixed layer instability, with most guidance indicating only upwards of about 500J/kg of SB/ML CAPE. What will not be lacking is very strong wind shear, both directional and speed, with upwards of 50 to 60kts increasing to 60 to 70kts deep layer shear and effective shear values. These are also represented well by rapidly enlarging, curved hodographs with SRH values increasing into the 300 to 400+m2/s2 range for the sfc-1km and sfc- 3km AGL. The main threat with this initial discrete/semi- discrete supercellular activity will be for large hail (GTE 1.00"), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some strong (EF2+)). It remains to be seen if these can manage to become fully surface based or not, and that will determine the extent of the severe threat. As of right now, there is moderate confidence in the development of severe thunderstorms with this.

Our second area of potential severe thunderstorms will begin to materialize over MS as a squall line sometime after 12AM CDT Saturday, and progress rapidly east across the state into AL after 3AM CDT. This line will likely track east along the northern periphery of the aforementioned warm front, and the exact path this round takes will be reliant on how far north that moisture plume extends. Once again, instability appears to be a potential limiting factor, although despite the lack of instability strong forcing associated with the strong upper level difluence will likely help to make up for this. Generally expect MLCAPE values of around 500 increasing to near 1000j/kg towards daybreak. Wind shear will be exceptionally strong, with deep layer and effective shear approaching 70kts ahead of the line. Likewise, very large, curved hodographs representative of 500 to 700m2/s2 sfc-1km and sfc-3km SRH values will be present over the region. Given the overly forced convection, a squall line will likely materialize and result in a predominately damaging wind threat during the overnight into early morning hours. Given the rather large helicity values and potential for some surface based instability to materialize by daybreak, a tornado or two can not be ruled out (including a strong tornado of EF2+ intensity). This is a moderate confidence scenario, and details will be ironed out as we move forward into Friday.

Once our initial squall has exited the area, there will still be a trailing area to its south that will exhibit an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms. Surface based instability will increase with daytime heating, with upwards of 1,000 to 2,000j/kg of SB and MLCAPE. It remains to be seen if enough forcing remains, and certainly doesn't help surface winds veer to southwesterly with a southwest to northeast oriented cold front pushing southeast into the area limiting low level convergence. With that said, we still have ample shear available with upwards of 60 to 70kts deep layer/effective overlapping ample CAPE. Can not rule out isolated thunderstorm development if 1)the low level cap that develops can break, and 2)if enough forcing exists and/or low level winds remain backed increasing low level convergence. Any storm that develops would be capable of producing all severe hazards, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes through the early afternoon hours. For now, this is a low confidence scenario that will have to be monitored in future updates.

Outside of this, things calm down for Saturday night into Sunday as the front gradually pushes through the area and high pressure takes hold. Temperatures Friday night will be in the lower to middle 60's inland, and upper 60's along the coast. Saturday's highs are of low confidence, and will depend on how fast convection moves out and surface heating commences. For now, hedging towards middle 70's east of the I-65 corridor where convection lingers longest, and upper 70's to near 80 to the west of the I-65 corridor. With the frontal passage, temperatures cool into the lower to middle 50's inland Saturday night, with upper 50's to near 60 along the coast. Sunday temperatures rebound into the middle to upper 70's for most locations, falling into the lower to middle 50's for most spots Sunday night. A HIGH risk of rip currents begins late Friday night and goes through late Sunday night. MM/25

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/ . Upper level ridging builds in and holds Monday through Wednesday, gradually giving way to a very deep neutrally tilted upper level trough Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface, high pressure gradually shifts east into the western Atlantic by Wednesday, with southeasterly return flow ahead of the approaching surface low and associated cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. It's not entirely out of the question that we could once again be looking at a potential for severe weather, although differences in model guidance preclude really talking about that at this time. There is considerable variance in model output on timing of this next system, but anticipate increased chances for showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will generally be in the lower 80's for highs, with middle 80's possible inland. Lows will generally be in the lower to middle 60's Monday night through Wednesday night. Highs Thursday will depend on when FROPA occurs, but opted to go with upper 70's to lower 80's for now. Forecast confidence in the latter portion of the extended period is lower than normal. MM/25

MARINE . Moderate southeasterly flow will develop on Friday, before shifting southerly and increasing to moderate to strong overnight ahead of another cold front. Moderate northerly flow is then anticipated in the wake of the second cold front early Sunday. /13

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk from Friday evening through Monday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk from Friday evening through Monday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 10 mi46 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 64°F 68°F1020.4 hPa (+0.5)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 35 mi26 min ESE 3.9 G 7.8 64°F 69°F1021.2 hPa42°F
WBYA1 43 mi46 min 70°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 43 mi61 min 59°F 1021 hPa44°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi53 minSSE 410.00 miFair60°F44°F56%1020.2 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi50 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F44°F65%1020.1 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL18 mi50 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F40°F47%1020.1 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi1.8 hrsS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F43°F50%1018.6 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL24 mi1.8 hrsS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy62°F40°F44%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNS

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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4N6N7N7--S8S5S6SE4
1 day agoW8W8W8W8W7W8W7NW9NW7NW3NW10NW15
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2 days agoNW3NW4NW4N6N6N5N4E5CalmN6N64N6N5N4CalmE5S7S8S9S13SW12SW7W8

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:22 AM CDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.20.1-0-0.1-000.10.20.30.50.60.70.80.911.11.11.21.21.11

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:37 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:13 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.80.80.911.11.21.21.21.21.21.110.80.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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