Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou La Batre, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 3:55 AM CDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ632 Expires:202005271530;;811366 Fzus54 Kmob 270331 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 1030 Pm Cdt Tue May 26 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz631-632-271530- Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 1030 Pm Cdt Tue May 26 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1030 Pm Cdt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis..Light to moderate east to southeast winds transition to a light southerly flow for Wednesday through Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front approaches from the north on Saturday and moves through the marine area Saturday night, resulting in winds shifting to a northerly flow.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou La Batre, AL
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location: 30.37, -88.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 270451 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1151 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . Unsettled weather pattern to continue in the near term with the passage of isolated to scattered shra/perhaps a few tsra tonight. Lowest cigs expected to be in MVFR ranges overnight. Going into Wednesday, more of the same with perhaps even more increase in convective coverage. Some of the storms could be strong to marginally severe into the afternoon. Storms will bring the greatest impacts to approaches and departures by way of concentrated lightning, much lower cigs and vsby reductions due to moderate to locally heavy rains. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 1111 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/ . Southern stream upper level low was centered over northeast TX, with a highly diffluent flow aloft positioned over the central Gulf coast. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was draped north/south from MO to south of the southeast LA coast. An assessment of deep moisture from 27.00Z balloon release, shows pwat values just under 1.9" from southeast AL to the western FL panhandle (130 to 150% of normal to 1.4 to 1.7" over MS and southeast LA (~110% of normal). Mid-level impulses rounding the base of the upper low and lifting northward within the more diffluent pattern over our area while intersecting the stalled front favors enough ascent to keep the night potentially unsettled. Rains could be locally heavy at times and if residence time is of a longer duration the result will be potential flooding of mainly urban/lower lying areas.

Southern stream upper low centered over the eastern Red River Valley of TX/OK only gradually moves east during the day Wednesday. Rounding the base of the upper low, a nose of drier air aloft will be a key to convective strength. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern is in place and is quite complicated. A trof of low pressure was aligned over the northeast FL coast. A portion of this trof extends west to where it intersects with the weak front to our west. Through Wednesday, the upper low drifts towards the ArkLaTex. The larger scale southerly flow around this feature draws the northeast FL trof northward into the southeast US while a series of mid-level impulses/weak waves of low pressure will track northward along the front. While abundant deep layer moisture remains in place over the area, the cooler and drier mid-level air will nose in from the west and could support a steeping of the lapse rates and increased instability favorable for convection. The 27.00Z high resolution guidance shows a range of lapse rates 6.7 to 7.3 C/KM. Early evening solutions vary on the degree of instability with the HRRR/NAM the most bullish with MLCAPE values on the order of 2400 to 2800 J/KG while the other guidance is around 2000 J/kg. Additionally, wet bulb zero values drop to near 9-11 kft over interior southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama by late Wednesday afternoon, while elsewhere remain at 12 kft or better for much of the day. 850 mb flow is relatively weak (10-20 knots), but there are indications that the deeper layer 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes could intensify to between 35 and 45 kts per evening guidance late in the day and into Wednesday night. These conditions discussed as a whole look to favor the potential for isolated severe convection over the forecast area with the timing being during the afternoon and perhaps lingering into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms in place for the central Gulf coast Wednesday. PoPs increasing to likely to categorical ranges along and northwest of I-65 by Wednesday afternoon. High end chance elsewhere.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s interior to lower to mid 70s coast.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on Wednesday. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 854 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

UPDATE . The coastal flood advisory for coastal Alabama expired earlier in the evening and an update has been made to zones to remove headlines. Tide gauges on their way down. Forecasters continue to see lingering showers and embedded storms over the local area mostly confined to areas southeast of I-65 and another band of showers and storms just to the northwest of Mobile Regional. Rains have been locally heavy in a north to south band from south of Evergreen AL to Milton FL where upwards of 3 to 6 inches have occurred since earlier in the evening. Fortunately, radar trends show the overall coverage beginning to shrink and intensity weakening. The pattern supporting the unsettled weather pattern though remains unchanged through the night so re- development of activity is quite possible. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 638 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

AVIATION . 00Z issuance . Radar shows scattered to numerous shra with embedded clusters of tsra located along US Hwy 84 southeast to I-10 mostly focused over the western FL panhandle near the interstate. Some additional shra development noted west over coastal southwest AL. Will remain in an unsettled weather pattern in the near term with potential passage of shra/tsra tonight. Cig bases appear mostly be in MVFR categories but cannot rule out a lowering to IFR categories. TSRA this evening are slow movers and present a heavy rainfall threat and resultant substantial reductions to vsby over the interior. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 329 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/ . Have updated to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 pm for coastal Alabama based on latest tide gauge trends where it's possible some locations may see some minor flooding during the rest of this afternoon. Previously made some minor adjustments to daytime highs to raise by 1 to 2 degrees along with increasing pops somewhat mainly over interior areas for the rest of this afternoon based on high resolution guidance. An upper low is currently centered near western Oklahoma with an associated surface low located near northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. An upper trof extends eastward from the upper low to across the southeast states, and a surface low has developed in response which is currently located near Orlando, Florida. A weak surface trof extends from the Orlando surface low across the northeastern Gulf into Louisiana where it intersects with a weak cold front extending southward from the Kansas/Missouri surface low across Arkansas into central Louisiana. Through Wednesday, the upper low drifts towards the ArkLaTex while the eastward extending upper trof weakens somewhat. In response, the Orlando surface low moves towards South Carolina and weakens while the Kansas/Missouri surface low moves into Iowa then dissipates with a weak secondary surface low forming over Arkansas. This transition results in the weak surface trof over the northern Gulf lifting northward into the forecast area on Wednesday while the weak cold front advances into western Mississippi.

While abundant deep layer moisture is currently in place over the area with precipitable water values near 2.0 inches, cooler and much drier air mainly in the 750-400 mb layer is being drawn around the western side of the upper low back to the west and will flow mainly into the western half of the forecast area mainly during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Model soundings show a dramatic improvement on Wednesday in regards to convective potential over the western half of the area in response to this cooler/drier air with improvement further to the east as well. MLCAPE values of around 2000 J/kg are expected by midday Wednesday over southeast Mississippi tapering to around 1500 J/kg, and steep lapse rates up to 7.5 C/km are noted in the 700-500 mb layer over interior southeast Mississippi. Additionally, wet bulb zero values drop to near 10-11 kft over interior southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama by late Wednesday afternoon, while elsewhere remain at 12 kft or better. While the 850 mb flow is relatively weak (10-20 knots), 0-6 km bulk shear may be as high as 35 knots. These conditions as a whole look to favor the potential for isolated severe storm convection mainly over southeast Mississippi and possibly extreme southwest Alabama as well, with the timing being during the afternoon, especially the late afternoon hours.

For this evening, a series of shortwaves moving through the upper trof aloft will support likely pops west of I-65 with chance pops further to the east. Isolated to scattered convective development is possible later tonight. On Wednesday, a combination of the weak surface trof moving into the area along with daytime heating in the convectively favorable environment will support likely to categorical pops along and north of a line from Mobile to Andalusia, Alabama with chance to good chance pops elsewhere. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the immediate coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 80s. A high risk of rip currents continues through tonight, then a moderate risk is expected on Wednesday. /29

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/ . The wet pattern will persist through the latter half of the work week. A large upper level low that developed over the Southern Plains in the near term will get absorbed by an upper level trough diving through the northern states toward the Great Lakes late in the week. Further to the west, an upper level ridge builds into the Southwest on the backside of the weakening upper low.

Despite the deep southerly flow over the region in the short term, the axis of moisture briefly moves east of the area on Thursday as the upper low begins to weaken to our west. While we still expect showers and storms in the late afternoon hours on Thursday, the coverage of showers and storms will be less than both Wednesday and Friday. That said, there will be enough instability and bulk shear by Thursday afternoon to potentially produce a few strong storms with gusty winds being the main concern. As the upper low weakens and lifts northeast on Friday, the trough will begin to swing toward the region. The chance for showers and storms remains highest across the southeast portion of the area (generally south and east of I-65) starting in the late morning hours on Friday through the afternoon. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out on Friday during the day.

Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s on both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Lows each night will only fall into the mid to upper 60s inland with 70s right along the coast. A MODERATE risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night before becoming LOW on Friday. 07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/ . The area begins to dry out somewhat through the weekend and early next week. The weakening low and upper level trough swing across the region early in the weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build east into the Southern Plains. A front will slide through the area on Saturday with scattered showers and storms lingering into the afternoon hours. In the wake of the front, expect slightly drier air to filter into the area. That said, don't expect cooler daytime temperatures to accompany this frontal passage. With the ridge aloft building into the central half of the CONUS through early next week and a surface high sliding into the Midwest, temperatures will remain toasty across the area. High temperatures by Monday afternoon may soar into the low 90s across much of the area. 07/mb

MARINE . Moderate easterly winds become a light to moderate southeasterly flow this afternoon then transition to a light southerly flow for Wednesday through Saturday. There are indications that a front may push southward through the marine area Saturday night, resulting in a wind shift to an offshore flow. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 7 mi71 min E 5.1 75°F 1013 hPa74°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 9 mi56 min E 8 77°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.7)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 9 mi86 min E 9.9 1011.5 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 14 mi56 min ESE 11 G 13 77°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.9)
MBPA1 15 mi56 min 75°F 74°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 15 mi56 min 81°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 16 mi56 min ESE 6 G 8 76°F 1011.3 hPa (-0.7)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 17 mi56 min ESE 12 G 13 76°F 1011.1 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 23 mi56 min E 9.9 G 11 84°F 82°F1011.7 hPa (-1.1)
WBYA1 24 mi56 min 80°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 24 mi71 min 72°F 1011 hPa71°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 24 mi86 min E 8 74°F 1011.5 hPa
PTOA1 25 mi56 min 74°F 70°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 26 mi56 min 73°F 79°F1011.5 hPa (-1.1)
42067 - USM3M02 27 mi56 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 2 ft1010.8 hPa (-1.0)
PPTA1 39 mi56 min 77°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.7)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 44 mi26 min E 9.7 G 12 77°F 78°F1011.4 hPa74°F

Wind History for Range A Rear, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS15 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1011.5 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL21 mi60 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F70°F96%1011.6 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL22 mi63 minE 910.00 miRain76°F72°F88%1011.8 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL22 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair70°F68°F94%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPQL

Wind History from PQL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE4NE4NE4NE73E4E5N4S9CalmCalmS6CalmCalmS4SE3CalmE5N6NE3NE3NE3Calm
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4NE5NE5S8SE9SE8S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayou La Batre, Mississippi Sound, Alabama
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Bayou La Batre
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Wed -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:58 PM CDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.60.81.11.31.51.71.81.81.81.71.51.210.70.40.1-0.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:25 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:37 AM CDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:53 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:05 PM CDT     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-0.9-0.30.30.91.41.92.22.32.42.221.61.10.5-0.1-0.6-1.2-1.7-2-2.2-2.3-2.3-2.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.