Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou La Batre, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 4:55PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 4:36 AM CST (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:31PMMoonset 3:10AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ632 Mississippi Sound- 343 Am Cst Wed Nov 25 2020
Today..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Winds light becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 343 Am Cst Wed Nov 25 2020
Synopsis..Moderate onshore flow and elevated seas continue across the gulf waters through this morning before subsiding late this afternoon and tonight. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then persist through the remainder of the week ahead of the next front that will sweep across the marine area late this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou La Batre, AL
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location: 30.37, -88.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 250939 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 339 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/. A low pressure system currently centered over eastern Kansas lifts northeastward across the Upper Midwest through today, while an associated cold front pushes into western TN and MS and adjacent south central LA late this afternoon. Surface flow gradually veers to southerly across our forecast area ahead of this approaching feature. Low level moisture content will continue to increase as a result, with surface dewpoints expected to rise into the mid to upper 60s through the day. An 80 kt mid level jet streak spreads across the Mid Mississippi Valley and into western TN this morning and southwesterly 850 mb flow subsequently increases to 35-40 knots across the local area. Ascent begins to spread into our southeast MS and interior southwest AL counties by late this morning, and we still expect increasing coverage of showers and potentially a few thunderstorms over these northwest zones after 9-10 AM. Scattered convection may continue to develop across the rest of the region this afternoon while a more concentrated area of convection takes shape along the front itself. Despite the best dynamics lifting away to the east-northeast by late afternoon, we still should maintain 25-35 knots of 850 mb flow and up to 40-50 knots of 0-6 km shear through the afternoon. Some of the higher resolution guidance also shows 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE arriving along and just ahead of the advancing boundary. Instability and shear therefore look sufficient to bring a localized damaging wind threat to our forecast area, especially over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama late this morning through this afternoon. 0-1 km storm relative helicity along and just ahead of the boundary could range between 150-250 m2/s2 by this afternoon, which would aid in rotating storm potential. Thus, cannot rule out a brief tornado over the above mentioned areas as well.

The forecast going into tonight remains somewhat a challenge. The latest guidance continues to show the frontal boundary stalling from southwest to northeast across our region. A narrow zone of ascent along this feature, in combination with sufficient boundary layer moisture, may support the continued development of isolated to scattered showers through the night. Decided to maintain 30-40% PoPs along the boundary through the night to reflect this. There may continue to be a zone of lingering instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) and sufficient deep layer shear for a few strong storms roughly along the I-65 corridor. Will need to monitor this closely, as it will depend heavily on the timing/location of the front and the near storm environment ahead of it. Some patchy fog may also develop late, particularly along and south of the stalled front.

Zonal flow sets up aloft on Thursday overtop the stalled surface front, which gradually becomes more diffuse with time. We will continue to see scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along this stalled boundary through that time. Left generally 20-30% rain chances in the forecast to reflect this. Convective models still indicate upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing during afternoon hours, but deep layer shear weakens to around 25 knots which will be less supportive of convective organization. Therefore, the severe risk on Thursday appears low at this time.

Highs today range in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, while lows Wednesday night will range from the lower to mid 60s southeast of the stalled front and mid to upper 50s to its northwest. Likewise, temps Thursday afternoon range from cooler (low 70s) northwest of the front to warmer (upper 70s to around 80) southeast. /21/49

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Friday night/. A positively tilted upper trof which extends from the northern Plains into the southwest states splits during the period, with the northern portion advancing into the interior eastern states while the southern portion evolves into a slow moving upper low which progresses across Arizona and New Mexico. A weak frontal boundary will be oriented roughly east-west across the interior portion of the forecast area Thursday night. The weak boundary lifts just north of the area on Friday, then pushes slowly southward through the forecast area Friday night as a surface ridge over the southern/central Plains and builds eastward. Will have slight chance pops for interior portions of the area Thursday night, then chance to likely pops follow for Friday and Friday night as deep layer moisture increases over the area along with a series of shortwaves progressing across the area followed by the movement of the weak frontal boundary through the area overnight. Shear values generally remain low through the period, although with MLCAPE values increasing to near 500 J/kg on Friday, it's possible that a strong storm or two could develop. Highs on Friday range from the lower 70s well inland to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night range from the mid to upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the immediate coast, then lows Friday night will be similar, although just a bit cooler. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/. Afternoon and evening model guidance is coming into better agreement on the evolution of a cutoff upper level low (ULL) during the forecast period. Beginning Saturday, the aforementioned ULL will be present just east of the Four Corners region, migrating gradually eastward through Sunday. A positively tilted upper level trough begins to dig and amplify across the north-central United States Saturday night into Sunday morning. As this occurs, it will begin to interact with the cutoff ULL, eventually allowing for the low to phase with the trough and help swing the trough to a neutral tilt by Sunday night. Models differ on the extent of this interaction and exactly how far east the ULL is situated. The GFS remains slightly faster with this, although has trended slower over the last few model runs. The Euro has in turn increased its forward speed slightly on the feature, and it appears we may be reaching a compromise before long on how the ULL will evolve this weekend. The last piece of the puzzle is the interaction with the upper level trough, which will affect exact timing for our sensible weather this weekend.

Saturday will continue to feature a remnant boundary over the region that will serve as a foci for convective development over the region. Will maintain chance PoPs over the CWA for the day Saturday. Our attention quickly shifts to the approaching ULL and trough, with a developing surface low to the west that will rapidly move northeast, and attendant surface cold front that will move into our area sometime Sunday night or Monday morning. At least some low level instability appears likely to be present over the area amidst moderate to strong warm air advection (WAA) throughout the column, lending credence to the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front. Given timing differences and degree of instability on forecast models, will defer from splitting hairs on any severe weather potential for now. It is worth noting that ample wind shear will likely be in place Sunday, but differences on timing and degree of instability limits forecast confidence at this time. At the very least, moderate to heavy rainfall looks likely during the Saturday through Monday time frame with deep layer moisture return over the region and PWAT's increasing between 1.5" to 1.8". Saturday and Sunday temperatures can be expected to remain above average for both highs and lows.

Once the front has passed through our CWA, intense cold air advection (CAA) will begin. This will likely usher in the coldest air so far this season, with model consensus pushing temperatures well below average. In fact, most models indicate the potential for temperatures to get near or below freezing for many locations Monday night into Tuesday morning, and is reflected in the current forecast. Anticipate the atmospheric column to dry out appreciably amidst the CAA, and as a result a dry forecast is in place starting Monday afternoon through Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the central gulf coast. MM/25

MARINE. Moderate onshore flow and elevated seas continue across the Gulf waters today, finally dipping below exercise caution levels late this afternoon. A light to moderate onshore flow will persist thereafter through the remainder of the work week ahead of the next front that will sweep across the marine area late this weekend. /49

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 14 mi37 min SE 14 G 15 71°F 1018 hPa (-1.1)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 15 mi37 min E 9.9 66°F 1017.6 hPa (-1.0)
MBPA1 15 mi49 min 67°F 64°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 15 mi49 min 67°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 16 mi49 min S 14 G 16 72°F 1018 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 17 mi49 min SSE 18 G 19 71°F 1018.1 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 23 mi49 min SSE 2.9 G 7 65°F 66°F1017.3 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 24 mi97 min SSE 7 69°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.4)
WBYA1 24 mi49 min 68°F
PTOA1 25 mi49 min 66°F 60°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 26 mi49 min 66°F 66°F1018.3 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 44 mi37 min SSE 18 G 21 74°F 72°F1018.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Range A Rear, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS15 mi44 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F63°F73%1017.9 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL21 mi41 minSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds62°F59°F90%1018 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL22 mi44 minSSE 610.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1018.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL22 mi62 minE 4 miPartly Cloudy63°F59°F88%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPQL

Wind History from PQL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3NE3E3E5SE9SE9SE11SE10
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2 days agoCalmN3N3N5N4N53N7N7N6N9N7N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou La Batre, Mississippi Sound, Alabama
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Bayou La Batre
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:10 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:30 AM CST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:30 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:38 PM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.80.80.9110.90.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
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Wed -- 02:09 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:20 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:46 AM CST     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:26 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:23 PM CST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:06 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.10.100-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.20-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.