Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Navarre, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:07PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 11:56 AM CDT (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:22AMMoonset 12:54AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 959 Am Cdt Tue Mar 31 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm cdt this evening...
.tornado watch 77 in effect until 3 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots becoming west. Gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 959 Am Cdt Tue Mar 31 2020
Synopsis..A strong southwest to westerly wind flow and building seas will continue over the marine area through this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. A strong northwest to northerly flow is expected in the wake of the front this evening and overnight, slowly diminishing late Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Winds and seas will be locally higher in and near showers and Thunderstorms, with waterspouts possible, through early to mid afternoon today. A light southeast to southerly flow can be expected through the remainder of the week as a surface ridge of high pressure builds over north central and eastern gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navarre, FL
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location: 30.4, -86.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 311209 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 709 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Line of convection is beginning to enter the northwest tier of zones moving rapidly east at 35 to 40 kts. Additional convective development to occur this morning with activity spreading east fairly rapidly. In addition to lower cigs and impacts from strong to perhaps severe tsra, gusty southwest to westerly winds away from storms will also bring impacts today for approaches and departures. Wind shift with frontal passage occurs mid to late afternoon. /10

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 535 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

UPDATE . Considering the strengthening west to southwest flow over the beaches and long period swell moving up into the surf zone today, the marginal risk of rip currents has been upgraded to a high risk. Zones will be updated to reflect these headlines. /10

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 403 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/ . A sharpening mid-level storm system trough axis was advancing eastward over the Red River Valley of TX/OK with a diffluent high level flow spreading over the deep south. At the surface, quasi-stationary front was draped from the southeast US to near the central Gulf coast merging into a surface wave of frontal low pressure that has become better defined over northern LA with approach of concentrated height falls aloft. South and southwest of the low, warm sector was characterized by excellent instability for the pre-dawn hours with most unstable CAPE values ranging 800-1200 J/KG over southern LA and the upper TX coast. Low pressure tracks east to the central AL/MS state borders by around daybreak advancing quickly into southern GA by early afternoon. As the low moves by to our north, the coastal boundary will also quickly surge northward bringing better moisture across our area as dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 60s. With approach of better forcing, the high resolution convection allowing models shows a band of showers and storms likely to develop across southeastern Mississippi during the early morning hours, translating quickly east to the I-65 corridor mid- morning continue to race eastward and could conceivably be out of the area by around noon. Given short range ensembles showing back edge of precipitation a little slower moving out, will maintain better PoPs over the far eastern zones through mid-afternoon before scaling back by the close of the afternoon.

Given the fast eastward progression of the surface low, the potential for strong to severe storms looks to be more focused through this morning. Much of the area remains outlooked for a slight risk. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, hail up to quarter size and a tornado cannot be ruled out. There will be ample shear with 0-1 KM effective bulk shear values of around 45 knots on average and models are hinting at around 400 to 800 J/KG of MLCape this morning. MLCape increasing to about 1000 J/KG by mid to late morning over the southern zones. It is important to note that the HRRR has been slightly quicker with each run but also trending slowly upward with cape. The local environment would be supportive of organized convection with potential bowing segments and maybe a supercell or two. Storms that may tend to remain more discrete could produce large hail. The tornado threat appears minimal due to quickly veering surface winds. Hodographs are mostly straight line, lacking overall low-level curvature, except further north closer to the surface low and warm front where surface winds will remain southerly for longer. A tornado cannot be ruled out in this area but overall the threat appears low.

With the close proximity of the surface low and daytime heating, winds will be gusty out of the south to southwest. Some gusts up to around 30 mph will be possible and a wind advisory remains in effect through the day mostly along and south of a line from Wiggins, MS to Andalusia AL.

The cold front clears our area paving the way for "cooler" and drier weather tonight and Wednesday.

Daytime highs upper 70s to low 80s before cooling off behind the front. Lows tonight much cooler in the mid to upper 40s except lower 50s near the coast. More seasonable Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /10/03

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/ . The dry northwest flow pattern aloft will persist as the upper level trough moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and an upper ridge builds overhead Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge will flatten slightly Thursday night as a weak shortwave impulse moves into southern Mississippi. Northerly surface winds will otherwise remain as surface high pressure builds across the Mississippi Valley region. The surface ridge will continue to advance eastward over the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, before shifting along the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday night. Mostly clear and dry conditions will prevail across our forecast area through Thursday night. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s to low 50s, with mid 50s at the beaches. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s, followed by lows Thursday might in the mid 50s to lower 60s. /22

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/ . Zonal mid level flow generally continues across the forecast area Friday and Saturday. Deep layer moisture remains fairly limited on Friday, but there could be enough weak ascent for isolated showers, mainly across western portions of the CWA. A shortwave impulse in the zonal flow pattern may support a better chance of rain showers across the region by Saturday. Embedded impulses in the flow aloft may continue to move across the region Sunday into Monday on the northern periphery of a ridge building across the Gulf of Mexico. We will maintain a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will likely be above normal through the extended period. /21

MARINE . Main impacts to commercial and recreational boating interests comes today and tonight. A moderate to strong southwest to westerly flow and building seas to develop on today south of a low pressure system that tracks quickly east over central AL. Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near storms Tuesday. A moderate to strong offshore flow sets up tonight in the wake of the frontal passage with seas continuing to build. Small craft advisories remain in effect for southern Mobile Bay, adjacent MS Sound waters and over the open Gulf waters Tuesday through Mid- morning Wednesday morning. /10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ059-060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL . Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ078-079.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632- 650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630- 633>636.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 20 mi57 min W 5.1 G 12 78°F 77°F1007.7 hPa (-1.4)
PPTA1 39 mi57 min 78°F 1007.8 hPa (-1.7)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 44 mi37 min WSW 27 G 33 76°F 76°F1008.3 hPa75°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 61 mi57 min W 19 72°F 1008.1 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL9 mi2 hrsSSW 13 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F72°F81%1008.3 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL17 mi61 minSW 18 G 2810.00 miOvercast and Breezy79°F71°F79%1007.7 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL20 mi64 minSW 25 G 3310.00 miOvercast and Windy81°F70°F69%1007.3 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL20 mi64 minSW 13 G 227.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1007.6 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi2 hrsSSW 9 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F69°F72%1006 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL24 mi2 hrsSW 15 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F69°F74%1006 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRT

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE7SE8S9S11S6SW8SW5CalmCalmCalmS6S7S7S5SW7SW6S6S7SW12
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1 day agoS9S7S10S12S12
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SW9SW8SW4SW4W3CalmN4N6N4N3N3CalmN33N3NE4NE6E8E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:24 AM CDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:22 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:17 PM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.40.50.70.911.21.31.31.31.31.210.80.60.40.20-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:37 AM CDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:48 PM CDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.100.20.40.60.811.21.31.41.41.41.31.210.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.