Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Navarre, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:20PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 6:42 AM CDT (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 339 Am Cdt Wed Apr 21 2021
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 339 Am Cdt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis..Light to moderate west-northwest flow will become moderate to occasionally strong and shift to be northerly through early this morning as a cold front moves over area waters. Winds will then decrease and also transition to be easterly by Thursday afternoon. Winds will then be moderate and from the southeast on Friday, before shifting to be southerly and increasing to moderate to strong overnight ahead of another cold front. Moderate northerly flow is then anticipated in the wake of the second front by late Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Navarre, FL
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location: 30.4, -86.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 211002 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 502 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/. Wonderful dry and clear weather continues through the near term. It's not to hot and not to cold, all you need is a light jacket. A mainly west-southwest flow aloft begins to transition to northwesterly on early Thursday as ridging aloft amplifies across the southern Plains and begins moving into the region by late Thursday afternoon. At the surface, a dry cold front continues to move into the region from the northwest through the early morning hours and is expected to pass over the entire region just after sunrise and cool dry air begins to usher into the region. By Wednesday night, the front is well off to our southeast with high pressure beginning to build into the region from the west. Surface flow starts of northwesterly today and transitions northeasterly as the surface high located over the ArkLaMiss region moves into northern AL by early Thursday morning. By the end of the period flow transitions to more easterly as the high continues tracking east.

With the passing dry cold front, high temps today will be on the cooler side with low to upper 60s northwest of I-65, and mid 60s to low 70s southeast. Tonight, temperatures will drop to near, if not reaching record going into Thursday morning. Lows during this time are currently expected to be in the upper 30s for interior portions of southeast MS, and southwestern/south-central AL, with low to mid 40s expected elsewhere for areas north of I-10. Closer to the coast mid to upper 40s are expected. How low temps get will largely be dependent on whether surface winds remain elevated given clear skies on Wednesday night. Here are some notable record lows for Thursday morning:

Mobile: 42 (1993) Pensacola: 46 (1993) Evergreen: 38 (1993) Greenville: 38 (1993) Andalusia: 35 (1993) Crestview: 41 (1993/2000) Niceville: 38 (1993) Waynesboro: 36 (1993) Wiggins: 40 (1993)

Moving forward, highs on Thursday range in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. Be sure to keep your jackets handy for the chilly low temps and those sunglasses handy for Thursday during the day and enjoy the nice quiet weather while it lasts. JEH/88

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Friday night/. An upper level trough over the Desert Southwest and Baja California Thursday night is forecast to move toward the southern Plains through noon Friday and then will quickly translate toward the ArkLaTex region by late Friday night. Clouds will gradually increase across our area Thursday night into Friday as layer moisture trends upward within the zonal mid level flow pattern. The lower levels will remain quite dry Thursday night into Friday, so will keep a dry forecast going through noon Friday. Southwesterly flow aloft and deep layer moisture will increase Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching shortwave trough with precipitable water values increasing to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Ascent will increase over western portions of our area Friday afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers moving in from the west. Deep layer ascent will increase over the entire area Friday night, especially across the northern half of the CWA. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will spread over our region during this time. We have POPs increasing to 70-90% Friday evening northwest of I-65, and to 50-70% southeast of I-65. Pops will decrease across the southern one-third of the CWA after midnight Friday night to 30-50% as a warm front pushes further inland, but stay in the 60-90% range across the northern two-thirds. Deep layer and low level shear increases over the region after midnight with 45-55 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow expected to spread into locations west of I-65 after midnight, along with 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE, which could bring a low end threat of severe storms over northwestern portions of our area overnight Friday night. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially across the northern two-thirds. Will watch trends closely over the next two days. /22

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/. Details on the system Saturday continue to become clearer; however, there is still plenty of time for changes and will have to continue to monitor trends. For details on the severe potential and flooding rain threat see the labeled sections below.

By Saturday morning, the stage has been set and the threat will be ongoing for a potential round of severe weather and heavy rainfall. A positive to slightly neutral tilt shortwave trough will be powering across the area. Strong upper level diffluence will be centered over southeastern Mississippi during the start of the period and this region of strong synoptic ascent will continue to move east. This will overspreading a likely rapidly destabilizing warm sector over southern Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle bounded by a warm front to the north likely near the I-20 corridor and a crashing "cool front" extending southeast from a surface low over east- central Mississippi. Ongoing convection will likely be focused along the warm front north of our area and extending back into southeastern Mississippi during the start of the period Saturday morning as a stout 50 to 60 knot southerly 850mb jet over spreads the warm frontal zone. Given this low level shear, any surface based storms could pose a severe threat mainly along the highway 84 corridor and north. This convection will move northeast across the northern part of our area during the mid-morning hours. Along with the potential for strong storms, the strong low level jet will likely lead to gusty gradient winds and a wind advisory might be needed especially as the warm sector destabilizes and stronger winds will mix down during the mid-day hours. By mid-day the main synoptic ascent will be quickly lifting out of the area; however, there should be adequate ascent as the trailing surface boundary drops south into the area. This boundary will likely be the focus of more storms mainly east of I-65 during the afternoon as peak destabilization occurs. A line of strong to potentially severe storms could quickly progress eastward during the mid afternoon across the western Florida Panhandle and south Central Alabama. Rain will likely linger offshore through Saturday night as the weak boundary washes out over the Gulf. Al

Drier air will move in behind the trough as high pressure quickly builds over the central US. This is in response to a very large broad longwave trough entering the West coast which will become our next weather maker by the end of next week. Until then, high pressure is the name of the game through Tuesday. Expect dry conditions Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before return flow, well, returns late Tuesday. Moisture will begin to increase on Wednesday as the broad upper trough slowly pushes eastward. The trough will arrive on Wednesday with plenty of deep moisture ahead of it. Models are in fairly good agreement of this system and the overall timing and given the amount of return flow and deep neutral to negative tilt of this trough, we will have to monitor this system closely as the week moves on.

Temperatures will be mild throughout the period with mainly southerly return flow dominating the period. Highs will pretty much be in the 80s. Lows will start in the mid 50s and slowly climb throughout the period likely into the low 60s as our dewpoints slowly return to the soupy summer feeling we are so use to. Lastly, I would likely expect rip currents to be on the rise with the southerly persistent flow and would not be shocked to see a HIGH risk of Rip currents by the end of this week and again next week.

Severe . Alright this is a rather complicated severe setup that probably has two separate potentials. The first potential will be along the warm frontal zone over our northern counties during the early morning hours and into the mid-morning. This will be where the best synoptic overlap with some instability and the best shear will exist as the stronger 850 jet rotates over the area. The big issue with this period will be the degree of destabilization and the location of the best overlap of ascent/shear/CAPE given the likely ongoing convection along and north of the boundary and the noticeable capping inversion over the area. This cap will likely be overcome by the strong synoptic ascent and some destabilization should occur across the area; however, the best ascent appears to be over the I- 20 corridor north of our area leaving us a bit on the southern end. Nonetheless, surface winds will likely remain backed during this period leading to long curved hodographs supportive of rotating updrafts and all severe modes would be possible. This threat would mainly be along and north of highway 84.

The second threat will be more during the mid-day hours and into the early afternoon. As the upper trough pivots over and temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates will steepen during the afternoon and surface heating over the eastern half of the area will allow for appreciable cape to likely develop along and east of I-65. Cape values will likely climb to 1500 to 2000 J/KG and with deep layer shear still in the 50 to 60 knot range organized convection would be favored. Surface winds will actually veer out of the southwest leading to a straighter hodograph which will likely support more upscale growth into a QLCS or potentially splitting cells. Given the steep lapse rates, damaging winds and maybe some hail will be possible. The biggest question is with rather weak forcing and the best dynamics lifting north, will convection re-fire along the weakening boundary while it is still over our are or if it makes it out of the area before re- initiating.

Heavy rainfall . Luckily rainfall totals have gone down as models have pushed the heavier axis of rain north of our area with the warm front. This will not exclude us from the potential for heavy rainfall given high PWATS and the potential for training convection and storms moving over the same area that has seen a lot of rain over the last week or so. We will have to monitor the progression of the early morning convection as this will have the potential to train and heavy rain rates could drive an increased flash flooding potential near the boundary. With the weaker forcing and rather progressive nature of the mid afternoon storms, not as worried about heavy rainfall but some localized flooding cannot be ruled out and will have to be monitored. BB/03

MARINE. Westerly flow early this morning begins to transition to more north-northwest as a dry cold front moves over area waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect beginning at 5AM CDT this morning for the MS sound, Southern Mobile Bay, and the AL Gulf waters till this afternoon. Trends are still being evaluated to determine if the Small Craft Advisory will need to be extended going into Wednesday night and through early Thursday morning due to elevated winds from cold air drainage. Small Craft Exercise Caution exists over Northern Mobile Bay, and the FL Gulf Waters. Trends will continue to be monitored and updated in the near future. By late Thursday morning, winds decrease and begin to transition to more easterly by Thursday afternoon. Winds begin to increase to moderate and become more southeasterly going into Friday, then shift to be southerly and increase to moderate to strong going into Friday night ahead of another cold front with seas also beginning to increase during this time. This said Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will likely be needed on Friday with the potential of needing another Small Craft Advisory by Friday night, and going into Saturday. Moderate northerly flow is then expected in the wake of the FROPA by early Sunday. JEH/88

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ631- 632-650-670.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 20 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 63°F 71°F1016.4 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 44 mi32 min WNW 12 G 14 68°F 68°F1017.8 hPa65°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hurlburt Field, FL9 mi46 minNNW 810.00 miFair61°F53°F74%1015.7 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL17 mi46 minNW 710.00 miFair58°F52°F82%1016.9 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL20 mi49 minNW 310.00 miFair61°F56°F84%1016.4 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL20 mi49 minNW 710.00 miFair63°F54°F73%1016 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi46 minWNW 410.00 miFair56°F53°F90%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRT

Wind History from HRT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N4NE8N6NE4CalmS5S8S11S9SW9SW8SW6W5W4W5W7NW5NW5NW4NW6NW6NW7NW8
1 day agoN8N11NE11N13N11CalmW5SW5SW8S8SW8S5SW8W7NW5NW3N4N6N3N6N8N5N5N6
2 days agoN5N4N7NE3NE3CalmNE3N4N5N3N6NW7NW4NW5NW7N6NW5N4N5N5NW5N12N12N9

Tide / Current Tables for Navarre Beach, Florida
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Navarre Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:00 AM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:49 PM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10-000.10.20.30.50.60.70.911.11.21.31.31.31.31.31.210.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.30.50.70.811.11.21.31.31.31.31.2

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