Wednesday, April14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Goulding, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:17PM Wednesday April 14, 2021 6:52 AM CDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 9:44PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 329 Am Cdt Wed Apr 14 2021
Today..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 329 Am Cdt Wed Apr 14 2021
Synopsis..Southerly flow continues today ahead of an approaching cold front. Offshore flow returns Thursday following the passage of a cold front. Little change in seas is expected through this week, except near Thunderstorms from late tonight through Thursday where they could approach 7 to 8 feet in sudden squalls. As with yesterday, the pattern remains such that a short duration gale warning may be required in the wake of today's larger Thunderstorm complexes.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goulding, FL
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location: 30.4, -87.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 140955 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 455 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/. Cloudy through the period with highs today in the 70s (SE MS, interior SW AL) to the mid 80s east of I-65. Highs tomorrow in the 70s tomorrow due to a higher coverage of precipitation. Tonights lows ranging from the mid 50s across Choctaw Co, AL to the mid 70s along the NW FL Coast. Rain chances increase today from the west as precipitation develops along and ahead of a cold front that will move through the region from north to south on Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of coastal SW AL and interior SE MS.

Now for the 'nuts and bolts' of the forecast. The heaviest rainfall forecast location this period boils down to the location and evolution (i.e., the sustained moisture flux convergence generated along it) of the lower tropospheric moisture axis and where it intersects available thermodynamic instability. As we have been discussing for a few days now, the mid- and upper tropospheric flow is zonal aloft and we are getting periodic shortwaves propagate rapidly through the mean flow and it is fairly easy to time these out. There was and still is also decent model agreement starting with the passage of the SE LA deep convective bomb that went off yesterday and produced a high impact wake low with 40-60 mph winds locally (for MOB's area). The pattern is once again supportive for another today. Depending on where the organized deep convective goes, the wake low will trail it as air flows out of the meso-high and into the wake low that was induced by abundant latent heat release in the local air column trailing the precipitation. Do not surprised to see additional short-duration High Wind and\or Gale Warnings once again.

Back to the heavy rainfall discussion. Stone, George and Mobile counties still look to have the best chance for seeing localized flash flooding this period. It is where the most significant moisture flux convergence overlaps the best thermodynamic instability for both 'Round 2 - today's complex' and 'Round 3 - aligned more along the low level front'. Tonight, the low level moist axis becomes more aligned along the surface cold front and begins to translate, which cuts down on the available time for excessive precipitation to develop and repeatedly move over the same areas for points further north and east. One could argue that southern Perry and Green counties belongs in the FF.A, but confidence is not high enough at this time to add them. Later shifts will have to make that decision.

Deep convection is already being initiated across central LA very close to a sfc stationary front. It is moving east and subsequent deep convection will grow upscale into likely another MCS that will overspread the mainly the western portion of our region from the west today (again, 'Round 2'). Rain chances steadily increase west to east during the day and it will be knocking on SE MS's door by 10 AM CDT - and then points east. We are still expecting a quick hitting 1.5-3.5" over the Flash Flood Watch area (with locally higher totals) and ground conditions are still moist. Instantaneous rainfall rates of 2-4"/h will likely be experienced within the watch area. 'Round 2' of deep convection mainly affects areas west of I-65 through dark. Then a 'Round 3' of deep convection forms in association with the main synoptic push along and ahead of the cold front later tonight and moves through the entire region Thursday (to be located over the marine waters by afternoon). There is good agreement among both the spectral and grid point models alike that deep layer height falls occur on Thursday so the low level cold front should not be stymied in any way as it passes through form the north. The deep convection then continues moving south over the marine waters through the rest of Thursday.

There is a small chance that some thunderstorms today could produce a few gusty downdrafts later today, especially with some drier air in place just above the boundary layer, however thermodynamic instability will be very limited and greater just west of our area where the aforementioned 'Round 2 forms'. A more likely severe thunderstorm threat will be along and ahead of the surface front across the coastal counties of AL/NW FL tomorrow through about midday. Increasing moisture and modest heating ahead of the south/southeastward-sagging front could result in a few storms becoming near surface-based by late morning into the afternoon as they approach the coast. Any surface-based convection will pose a threat for locally damaging gusts in addition to marginal hail, however the threat remains marginal at this time. /23 JMM

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Friday night/. An upper level low encompass much of the Northeast as it continues to meander east on Friday while another expansive low over the western CONUS continues to open up as it pivots into the Plains on Friday. Zonal flow aloft persists over the Deep South as the aforementioned features remain well to our north. Despite the zonal flow, the active period continues as subtle shortwaves continue to slide east through the flow aloft.

Meanwhile, the ridge in the lower levels remains anchored to our south over the Gulf waters and western Atlantic. The surface high over the western Atlantic maintains it grasp over the Caribbean and southeastern Gulf through the remainder of the work week. Another surface high continues to creep toward the Southeast out of the Midwest and Plains through Friday morning before quickly retreating. A wave of low pressure develops on Friday over the Southern Plains and drifts to the southeast through the day as the aforementioned upper low opens up over the Plains. This low will then ride along the stalled front draped along the Gulf Coast through the overnight hours and into early Saturday.

The area dries out on Thursday night, but that dry period will be short-lived as showers and storms quickly ramp back up on Friday. The rain that falls early on Friday should be relatively light and we are not anticipating much in terms of accumulation. However, as we roll into late Friday afternoon, the shield of precipitation will grow and slide into the western portion of our area as a plume of 1.5-1.7 inch PWATs surges back into the area. A band of heavy rain will push into the area overnight Friday into early Saturday as the wave of low pressure nears the area. Another 1-2 inches of rain is expected with this next round of heavy rain with locally higher amounts possible. Where this shield of rain sets up and where the rounds of rain in the near term set up make all the difference in terms of the flash flood potential. The additional rain on Friday night could further exacerbate the situation if all of the previous bands of rain set-up across southeast Mississippi and parts of coastal Alabama where soils are already saturated. Given the uncertainty, we are holding off on extending the Flash Flood Watch into Friday/Saturday until we see how much rain is produced over the next 24 hours. This is something we will continue to monitor in upcoming forecast packages.

Cloud cover will prevent temperatures from falling too far on Thursday night with lows in the upper 40s north of the Highway 84 corridor and mid to low 50s across the remainder of the area. Given the next round of rain in addition to increasing cloud cover, temperatures will struggle on Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will only top out in the 60s inland with low 70s possible across parts of northwest Florida. Temperatures will only fall into the 50s on Friday night as heavy rain pushes across the area.

Lastly, given the incoming swell, the HIGH risk for rip currents persists through early this weekend. 07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/. A series of shortwave systems move through an upper trough stretching southwest from the Great Lakes to the Desert Southwest, then through zonal upper flow over the Southeast. A surface cold front stretching northwest near I-65 shifts southeast through the weekend as the series of shortwave pass, eventually moving south of the marine portion of the forecast area by Sunday and Sunday, and continuing so into Monday. Guidance is consistent in the rain shifting southeast through the Extended. There are significant differences in how far southeast the front pushes, along with the path of the passing shortwave energy, and with it, how far north any isentropic induced precipitation stretches. The 14/12z ECWMF is a bit further south initially with the front than the 14/00z GFS, and the GFS rain placement, with the GFS advertising a more abundant stream of passing shortwave energy. By Monday, the GFS has slowed the front pushing south over the Gulf with rain lasting over southern portions of the forecast area, whilst the ECMWF has pushed the front and any precipitation well south. By Tuesday, even the GFS has moved any rain south of the forecast area, passing energy or not.

With the increased cloud cover and precipitation coverage, temperatures below seasonal norms are expected saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the push of cooler air south over the Southeast has eased, and when combined with a dry airmass, temperatures have rebounded back to seasonal norms.

Saturday into Saturday night, looking at the model soundings, enough surface base instability is present (MUCapes up to 1500 J/kg) along with wind shear (Effective bulk shear of 45-60kts) along and south of the front for strong to severe storms. Where this will be is the question, with significant inconsistency in the guidance, so will need to monitor. /16

MARINE. Southerly flow continues today ahead of an approaching cold front. Offshore flow returns Thursday following the passage of a cold front. Little change in seas is expected through this week, except near thunderstorms from late tonight through Thursday where they could approach 7 to 8 feet in sudden squalls. As with yesterday, the pattern remains such that a short duration Gale Warning may be required in the wake of today's larger thunderstorm complexes. /23 JMM

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning for ALZ261>264.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning for MSZ078-079.

GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 0 mi52 min Calm G 1.9 65°F 71°F1016.7 hPa (-0.4)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 29 mi32 min 3.9 G 5.8 69°F1017 hPa
WBYA1 33 mi52 min 69°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 43 mi22 min ENE 7 67°F 1015.9 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 45 mi52 min E 5.1 G 7 69°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.0)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 47 mi52 min ENE 5.1 G 6 68°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.0)
MBPA1 47 mi52 min 60°F 60°F
PTOA1 47 mi52 min 61°F 57°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi52 min N 1 G 1.9 60°F 69°F1016.1 hPa (-0.0)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 49 mi52 min 58°F 67°F1017 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL5 mi59 minE 510.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1016.6 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL7 mi56 minN 08.00 miA Few Clouds58°F56°F93%1016.5 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL23 mi2.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNS

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E4E6E6SE7SE10SE8S7S3SW6W9W7SW14
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1 day agoCalmNE535E6E53S11S12S14S13SW10SW6SW3CalmSW3N3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
2 days agoN4N7N46NE8N4E75SE4CalmS6S10S3SW4W7W5W4CalmCalmCalmNW3N5W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:32 PM CDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:05 PM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.11.11.110.90.70.50.30.10-0-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:13 PM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:56 PM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.21.21.31.21.21.10.90.70.50.30.10-0.1

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