Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 4:02 AM   Moonset 4:47 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 051143 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 643 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Current radar data shows a line of convection in place from the western Hill Country into portions of the I-35 corridor near Austin.
Concerns for severe storms will be on the decrease through the early morning hours as convective inhibition slowly builds. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #185 was allowed to expire at 2 AM CDT. While the threat for severe storms has temporarily eased, we are seeing some healthy rainfall rates embedded within this line with instantaneous amounts on the order of 4-5" per hour. Luckily, this line of convection is steadily moving eastward and will continue to do so through the pre-dawn hours. We are also noting some new convective development over the lower Trans Pecos region as the leading edge of a frontal boundary interacts with an outflow boundary from earlier convection.

Recent runs of the HRRR model generally capture what is unfolding on radar and the weakening of this line is expected to continue through this morning. With precipitation still ongoing across areas covered by the Flood Watch, Burnet, Lee, Llano and Williamson counties, the Watch will remain in effect until 1 PM CDT. We could still see some 1 to 2 inch amounts with a few spots up to 3 inches. Any moderate to heavy rain falling over these areas will result in quick runoff and continue to pose a flood threat. For the late morning and afternoon hours, hi-res models generally agree in showing renewed convective development along an outflow boundary. Any breaks in the cloud cover will help destabilize the atmosphere and with adequate shear, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, especially along and south of a Rocksprings to San Marcos line. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather concerns. Rain chances should begin to decrease fairly quickly with the loss of daytime heating.
Wet ground tonight along with southerly flow in the low-levels will likely lead to fog development late tonight into Monday morning.
Highs on Monday will range from the lower 80s in the Hill Country to the mid and upper 90s along the Rio Grande. We will keep a low chance for some afternoon convection across the Hill Country, but overall confidence is low at this time.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A broad area of mid and upper level low pressure remains intact across the central and high plains states through the middle of the week. Farther south into the southern plains states, west- southwesterly flow will persist as the low-level thermal ridge slowly strengthens. Four our region, this will bring about a warming trend for Tuesday through Thursday, with highs in the 90s for most areas.
The exception will be out west along the Rio Grande where some highs on Wednesday and Thursday will warm into the 100 to 105 degree range.
These higher temperatures will likely be reached as the dryline is able to mix eastward aided by 700mb westerly winds in the 20-30kt range. As we head into the latter part of the upcoming week, the upper air pattern begins to change as the medium range models show a Rex block pattern taking shape over the western CONUS with a broad trough farther east into the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. This should allow a cold front to drop southward through the plains states and eventually into south central Texas on Friday. Some notable cooling will accompany the front as highs on Friday and Saturday ease back into the upper 70s for areas generally along and north of I-10.
Elsewhere, highs will be mostly in the 80s, except near 90 along the Rio Grande on Friday. We will keep a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for most areas on Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface obs show a bit more stability than is baked into the model solutions for the early periods thanks to a slightly over-achieving outflow from the overnight convection. VFR skies should start off the day for a good couple hours as winds remain out of the east and north over most areas. Less clearing will occur at DRT early on as the outflows have pushed a lot of the low level moisture and instability up against the border. Light shower activity around DRT could escalate into storms early in the day as models have been somewhat consistent on a secondary shortwave response combined with daytime heating. The latest HRRR also generates a return flow of convection into I-35 more from the east, instead of the south and overhead above SAT as suggested by earlier runs. Thus the AUS return to instability could happen at roughly the same time as the SAT/SSF areas. Expected coverage of storms is low, but shower coverage is probably going to be closer to 50 percent. This is to hint at storm intensities possibly not being as strong due to the cooling outflow, but the later day period storms could become stronger as previously anticipated. Some stable air expected to settle in tonight, so the hint is out there that we could drop into some LIFR/VLIFR conditions from fog and low clouds later tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 86 72 91 / 20 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 86 72 90 / 20 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 72 93 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 84 70 89 / 20 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 99 74 99 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 85 71 89 / 20 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 70 94 / 20 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 87 71 91 / 20 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 74 90 / 20 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 87 72 91 / 20 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 88 73 93 / 20 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Burnet-Lee-Llano- Williamson.

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