Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kiln, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:32PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:43 PM CDT (02:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 3:43AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 334 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers late in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds near 5 knots becoming east in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 334 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis..High pressure will slide to the east overnight while low pressure begins to develop in the southern plains early Friday. The low will move through the lower ms valley Friday night and Saturday driving a cold front into the region and finally sliding into the gulf overnight Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiln, MS
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location: 30.49, -89.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 222333 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 633 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

AVIATION(00Z TAF DISCUSSION). VFR conditions and light southeast winds will be the rule through around 15z tomorrow. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts after 15z. At KMSY and KBTR, a risk of thunderstorms will develop around 00z tomorrow. VCTS wording has been introduced to reflect this convective risk. PG

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 443 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021/

SHORT TERM . What a day today. Completely sunny skies, highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and dewpoints in the 30s to lower 40s led to a a very pleasant day. We will have one more night of relatively cool temperatures but that looks to end as moisture return tomorrow and temperatures warm.

Main focus in the short term is the potential for severe weather and maybe even some heavy rain from late tomorrow through Saturday morning. Our antagonist is currently moving over the deserts southwest and southwest towards the northern Baja. A lot of lift and moisture can be seen streaming in from the PAC. This main s/w is expected to deamplify some as it moves across the 4 corners and southern Plains tomorrow and Friday night however there is a lead impulse that appears to come across the northwestern Gulf and lower MS Valley Friday afternoon and evening. That may be the impulse that actually provides a little more activity than the main s/w and approaching cold front. While that impulse moves northeast there will likely be a deepening sfc wave moving across southeastern TX thus bringing our currently stalled front in the Gulf back north as a warm front. This front will move across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. As that happens we will see the kinematic field become quite impressive and the dynamics will likely be strongest during this time frame as well. The LL jet will ramp up between 0-6z and at the same time we will see upper level diffluence increase. Combine that with increasing mid level flow and the warm front and we should see a few scattered storms with the front. There is some question of how strong severe these could be but it would not be a surprise if one or two are severe.

After the warm front moves north and we move into the warm sector things get more unclear. This has a high shear low cape type event feel to it. Overall the kinematic field is still very favorable overnight and the shear may be rather extreme with some indications that 0-1 and 0-3km SRH could be in excess of 500 m2/s2 overnight. Mid level winds will be around 60-80kts and while a 100kt jet core moves through TX. However after the lead impulse moves through mid lvl hghts remain unchanged or may drop 1dm with the s/w having a positive tilt to it, LL convergence is weak and then we end up on the west side of the LL jet and the LL appear to be rather stable. What appears to be the case is we could have to wait for the front to move in to get convection to fire again. If storms can be potent enough then damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with this as it would likely be a QLCS type line moving through however, confidence is not high on getting a lot of convection along the front in our area and if it evens drifts down into out area.

There is also a small risk of the front and convection sliding into the CWA early in the morning but becoming more oriented WSW-ENE and storms training. If that occurs it could lead to a small window and area of flash flooding concerns. A Slight risk for excessive rainfall is out for the northwester quarter of the area so we will have to watch closely on the progress of the line if it looks like it is stretching back to the sw and hanging back from the main line of convection. /CAB/

LONG TERM . Very good agreement in the ensemble guidance from the ECS/GFES/GEMS. All suggest a warm and dry forecast to start the week and then looks like a front will try to move in for the back half of the work week. With the strong support from the ensemble guidance and the NBM deterministic values on the low end of the probabilities have opted to go a few degrees abv the NBM for Monday through Wednesday.

Ridge over the Gulf and the southern CONUS will build to start the week. This will allow temperatures to continue to moderate. Full on return flow will set back up by Monday night as high pressure settles east of the area. From Monday through Wednesday a L/W trough will deepen and slide east across the 4 corners region and into the central CONUS by Wednesday night. There is a little bit of timing differences with the models but the majority of them bring this trough through the Plains and over the Ms Valley region late in the work week with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime Thursday or Friday.

All of the guidance suggest a rather good warm up for the the work week with mid and not out of the question possibly upper 80s by Wednesday. h850 temps of 16-18C suggest highs could be around 85-88 so we shall see but yes the warm up is on. NBM is much low however the mean values from the NBM are as much as 3-4 degree warmer those days thus why the adjustment higher from the NBM. /CAB/

MARINE . As high pressure slides east and low pressure begins to take shape in TX winds will increase over the area late tomorrow and tomorrow night ahead of the approaching cold front. Headlines will likely be needed tomorrow afternoon and night and could even need a SCY for overnight Friday night. After the cold front slides into the and through the coastal waters winds will actually back down with little CAA occurring. High pressure will dominate the region Sunday and slide east Monday with return flow setting back up. /CAB/

AVIATION . 18z TAF Package . VFR conditions will persist for another the next 24 hrs before SHRA and possible TSRA return with the passage of a warm front from around 00-06z Saturday (Friday night). /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 51 74 64 83 / 10 30 100 30 BTR 54 77 67 83 / 0 60 90 30 ASD 50 77 68 83 / 0 30 80 60 MSY 59 78 71 83 / 0 40 80 50 GPT 55 75 68 80 / 10 20 80 70 PQL 49 75 67 79 / 0 10 80 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi55 min SSE 9.9 G 12 71°F 67°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 44 mi55 min ESE 9.9 G 12 61°F 70°F1019.9 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 45 mi55 min SE 4.1 G 8 62°F 69°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS9 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair55°F50°F82%1019.6 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA19 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair58°F47°F67%1019.5 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS24 mi50 minSSE 410.00 miFair61°F45°F56%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NE6E7--E10
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E7S6SE7E10SE10SE8S8S9S7S4Calm
1 day ago------------------N12
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2 days ago--------------------N6N4NE4NE33CalmCalmSE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi
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Waveland
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:03 AM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:48 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:02 PM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.60.91.11.31.41.41.41.41.51.51.51.41.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:14 AM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:48 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:38 PM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.60.40.20-000.10.30.50.811.21.31.41.41.51.61.61.61.61.51.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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