Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kiln, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:24PM Friday April 10, 2020 1:35 AM CDT (06:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1028 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am cdt Friday through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north near 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Friday..Northeast winds near 20 knots easing to near 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1028 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis..A cold front south of lake pontchartrain will move through the waters tonight. This front will stall over the northern gulf tomorrow night and Saturday as high pressure briefly builds in from the north. The front will then surge back across the waters Saturday night in advance of a strengthening low pressure system. This low will sweep through the gulf south on Sunday, and a cold front will quickly race through the waters Sunday night in the wake of the low. High pressure will then settle over the waters on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiln, MS
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location: 30.49, -89.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 100551 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

UPDATE.

Updated for small areas that still have thunderstorms off Mississippi coast and remaining area with mainly light rain showers. Otherwise, most updates where for the 06z aviation grids.

AVIATION.

Period of active weather due to thunderstorms has passed, so few remaining impacts are expected with VFR conditions expected to prevail. Northerly winds will continue near 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots at MSY and NEW through 15z today before dropping off below 10 knots. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 944 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020/

UPDATE . Scattered thunderstorms from a line roughly from McComb to Iberville is currently looking to congeal into a line. The strongest storm is currently near Iberville Parish and EBR Parish. Steep CAPE values near 3000 J/kg and unidirectional wind profile with EBWD observed at 65 kt on KLIX 00z sounding is conducive for severe winds and hail. 700-500 mb lapse rates were also observed to be right around 6.4 C/km. Additionally these storms have had a history of producing hail. Updated the forecast to reflect the stronger confidence of thunderstorms in the short term forecast through 12z. -BL

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 728 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020/

AVIATION . Biggest concerns for the terminals currently are thunderstorms with the potential of strong winds/hail to the west in eastern TX and western to central LA. Additionally, another concern for enhanced winds outside of thunderstorms due to the approaching cold front. Attempted to time out some of the storm arrivals with tempo group for BTR and MCB but otherwise went with prevailing VCTS. Could see some reductions in both visibility and ceilings starting 4z to around 12z for any nearby thunderstorms passing. Gradient winds also will be elevated right after cold frontal passage. -BL

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 346 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020/

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY .

SYNOPSIS .

Frontal boundary has moved south of Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi coast this afternoon. Somewhat drier air and some subsidence has allowed temperatures to jump behind the front. Pascagoula hit 93, Gulfport 91 and Slidell 90. With water temperatures in the mid/upper 70s, this was enough to generate lake and/or sea breezes, which then dropped temperatures back 5 degrees. No precipitation across the area this afternoon, and what low clouds there were are dissipating.

SHORT TERM .

Through Saturday night:

Boundary not likely to make much more southward progress over the next few hours while waiting for an impulse over Texas to lift northeastward. This should keep this evening dry across the area. As impulse rides northeastward, it could pull front back northward a little, with convection riding along the boundary, primarily near or after midnight. Forecast soundings (with the exception of the GFS at BTR) show at least some potential for hailers, per the marginal risk of severe weather in the SWODY1 west of Interstate 55. As the shortwave passes the area, the front will finally move well off the coast, bringing in drier and cooler air late in the night. This will bring a period of below normal temperatures and dry weather Friday through at least midday Saturday before the front lifts back to the north as a warm front. Showers will return to the area Saturday night as this happens. May have to trim lows tomorrow night depending on how much dry air actually filters into the area. 35

LONG TERM .

Sunday onward:

Southwest closed low finally kicks out Saturday night into Sunday, becoming negatively tilted over the southern plains with associated strong cyclogenesis over Oklahoma, moving into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. Won't get into too much detail on parameters as actual values will change over the next couple of days, but plenty of support for severe weather during the daytime hours on Sunday, especially near/north of the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors. Forecast will trend slower than the GFS, which is currently the fast outlier, maybe a shade slower than the ECMWF. Severe weather threat probably begins near the Atchafalaya River by mid-morning to early afternoon, and exiting the Mississippi coastal counties around sunset (give or take a couple of hours). All modes of severe weather possible, if not likely, with potential for a significant amount of severe weather. SPC currently outlooking a 30 percent threat for about the northern half of the area Sunday(Day 4), which equates to an Enhanced Risk. Wouldn't be shocked to see a Moderate Risk for portions of the area in tomorrow's Day 3 outlook for Sunday. Beyond midnight Sunday night, little or no precipitation expected through the end of the forecast period. Expect below normal temperatures for Monday through at least Wednesday, and for now, have accepted the blended data. 35

MARINE .

Small Craft Advisory conditions expected behind the front late tonight into Friday, and for now, won't mess with current headlines. As mentioned in the aviation section above, some indications that the tidal lakes and sounds could see gusts to gale briefly, but that might be convectively related. Will have mid shift continue to monitor, wouldn't be absolutely out of the question for a short fused gale. Winds relax briefly Saturday before onshore flow cranks up Saturday night. A little early for an issuance, but certainly potential for a Gale Watch Sunday if the pressure gradient gets a little tighter than expected. A Small Craft Advisory for late Saturday night through Sunday night is almost a certainty at this point. Conditions will gradually relax during the day on Monday. 35

DECISION SUPPORT .

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support for IDSS critical locations River Flood Warnings for MS River Assessing severe weather threat for Sunday Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 50 75 66 81 / 0 30 80 100 BTR 52 77 68 83 / 0 40 60 90 ASD 52 77 67 84 / 0 30 50 80 MSY 61 78 70 85 / 0 30 40 70 GPT 54 74 68 80 / 0 20 50 70 PQL 51 76 65 83 / 0 20 50 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ550-552- 570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 536-538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-534.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ552-570- 572.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ536- 538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ534.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi53 min N 12 G 14 72°F 77°F1012.3 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 44 mi47 min N 23 G 27 71°F 80°F1011.6 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 45 mi47 min NE 20 G 23 72°F 78°F1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS9 mi4.8 hrsN 05.00 miFog/Mist73°F71°F94%1009.1 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA19 mi42 minNE 610.00 miFair68°F64°F90%1011.1 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS24 mi42 minNNE 610.00 miLight Rain67°F64°F91%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSA

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------CalmCalmNW8NW6
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N8NW4CalmSW5SW9S8S8CalmCalm
1 day ago------------------CalmCalmSW5SW5W4
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2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmS8S9--S6S5S9S8SW6SW6SW6S4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi
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Waveland
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:28 PM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:35 PM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.50.60.811.11.21.31.51.71.9221.91.71.41.10.80.50.2-0-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:37 PM CDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:34 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.40.50.60.811.11.21.31.51.71.9221.91.71.51.20.90.60.30.1-0.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.