Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:22PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 10:18 PM CST (04:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:10AMMoonset 9:53PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 956 Pm Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..East winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 956 Pm Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis..Light southeast winds will increase to a moderate to strong by the morning. As a surface low moves across the gulf waters, winds will turn southwest with showers and storms present. Winds will remain elevated out of the west-northwest through Wednesday night before subsiding slightly and becoming easterly as another area of low pressure passes south of the marine area Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton, FL
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location: 30.61, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 282321 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 521 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . Scattered to numerous showers advancing from the west will shift eastward across the area late tonight into Wednesday. VFR conditions trend gradually lower to IFR/MVFR ceilings during the day on Wednesday. Light and variable winds this evening become easterly 5 to 10 knots overnight, slightly stronger near the coast, then become northeasterly by Wednesday afternoon. /29

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 322 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/ . High pressure ridge over the forecast area today will be shifting off to the east tonight as an area of surface low pressure currently over the southern Plains states slides east over southern LA. Models generally consistent in indicating that the low will be over south central or southeastern LA by around 6 AM Wednesday, and then move east-southeast along the MS/AL/FL panhandle coast (or just offshore) during the course of the day.

With this, most of the forecast area will be on the cooler and more stable side of the system as the low and associated warm front will be mainly offshore. The mid/upper level trough associated with this system is expected to be oriented just to the west of the MS River by 6 AM Wednesday, and then moving east across our area during the day on Wednesday. A couple of shortwave disturbances are expected to round the base of the trough, providing some additional dynamics along with the isentropic lifting that will be in place across the region. As the frontal wave of low pressure tracks east over southern Louisiana tonight, PWATS increase to around 1.00" across most of the area by daybreak Wednesday. Rain chances will be low this evening through late tonight, then the increasing isentropic lift (seen in the 290-300K layer) associated with the approaching trough will result in scattered to likely PoPs moving in from the west during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.

By Wednesday morning, warm front extending out from the weak surface low near the LA coast southeast to near the FL Keys moves slowly north during the day, but is expected to remain mostly offshore. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to range from 6.6 to 7.1°C/KM over the Gulf coast region on Wednesday, which may support isolated rumbles of thunder, but convection looks to be elevated with the warm front remaining positioned to the south. MUCAPE values will remain rather low (generally well below 500 J/KG with SBCAPE values even lower). Therefore only general thunderstorms expected, with no strong to severe storms. Some lingering showers early Wednesday evening, but precipitation is expected to be ending across our area by midnight.

Lows tonight expected to range from the low to mid 40s over inland locations, but closer to 50 degrees along the coast. A little cooler once again on Wednesday with all the clouds and rain expected, with highs mainly in the low to mid 50s over inland areas and upper 50s to lower 60s near and along the coast. /12

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/ . Axis of mid-level ridge of high pressure moves over the central Gulf coast Thursday leading to rain-free weather. Upstream, long-wave upper trof sets up over the Plains to close out the week. A lead impulse ejects eastward out of TX Thursday night with enhanced ascent operating on deeper Gulf moisture also spreading east over the Gulf coast bringing an upward trend in PoPs Thursday night into Friday. PoPs to categorical (>80%) Friday. Wave of frontal low pressure over the central Gulf is progged to track eastward with rains tapering off into Friday night. Instability is expected to remain weak with any convection primarily over the open Gulf waters, in closer proximity to the low track.

Daily highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s would be very close to seasonal normals. Overnight lows will be cool but well above what we normally see to close out the month of January. /10

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/ . Drier pattern over the weekend with upper trof axis moving eastward over the southeast to off into the west Atlantic. An upper ridge advances east over the area Sunday. Long range global models show next southern stream storm system lifting northeast up across TX and into the Lower MS River Valley Monday. Although energy deamplifies as it lifts up across the OH River Valley Monday night, a potentially active high level southwest flow aloft atop the area suggests a period of unsettled weather early next week.

Surface high pressure over TX Saturday builds east over the Gulf coast Sunday making steady eastward progress off into the southwest Atlantic early next week. As this occurs, an evolving southerly flow early next week causes highs and lows to trend warmer and well above climatology. /10

MARINE . A very progressive pattern continues over the coastal waters this week as a series of low pressure areas move east across or near the marine area. Light east to southeast winds over the marine area late this afternoon through tonight, increasing and shifting from southeast through southwest as an area of low pressure approaches from the west and moves east across the marine area during the day on Wednesday. For now it appears winds and seas will be high end SCEC (winds 15 to 20 knots and gusty with seas offshore up to around 6 feet) with the passage of this system, but we will have to see if future model runs indicate a need for a short duration SCA. Winds and seas will of course be locally higher in and near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the marine area on Wednesday. /12

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 17 mi48 min Calm G 1 54°F 1015.9 hPa
PPTA1 36 mi48 min 60°F 1015.9 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi48 min 59°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 44 mi93 min 47°F 1015 hPa46°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 47 mi28 min ESE 16 G 18 64°F 65°F2 ft1015.4 hPa45°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 48 mi48 min E 1.9 54°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL7 mi82 minENE 310.00 miA Few Clouds47°F42°F83%1014.3 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL8 mi82 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F39°F89%1014.4 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi85 minENE 510.00 miFair51°F44°F77%1015.4 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL22 mi82 minN 310.00 miFair45°F41°F86%1015.1 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL23 mi82 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F44°F97%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNDZ

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N5N4----CalmCalm--CalmNE6NE7E6SE10
G16
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1 day agoE5E5--NE5--N6NE4NE4N5N7N3N6N9N8N10N11N9N8N7N7N3NW3NW3N4
2 days ago--W4--CalmCalmCalmN3NW3----S4--CalmCalm--NE4NE4CalmE5SE8E3E5E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:09 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM CST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:52 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.911110.80.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:17 AM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:13 PM CST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:53 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11110.80.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.50.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.