Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:39PM Friday August 23, 2019 5:46 AM CDT (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:40PMMoonset 12:43PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 355 Am Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 355 Am Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis.. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through the period. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms will continue across the coastal waters today through Saturday as a tropical wave coupled with an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Daily precipitation chances will trend closer to normal by early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 230951
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
451 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019

Short term (today through Sunday)
Infrared satellite imagery shows a broad mid level low over the west
to northwest gulf of mexico that is moving north. This has already
brought a surge of deep tropical moisture into southeast louisiana
and south mississippi with precipitable water (pw) values running
high in the 2 to 2.25 inch range. The models remain in decent
agreement taking this low trough north today across the northwest
gulf towards the mouth of the sabine river tonight and Saturday.

This will maintain the deep tropical moisture over the forecast area
today, so have maintained the high rain chances from the previous
forecast, especially given the fact that there is so much
scattered shower activity already during the overnight to early
morning hours. While the rain chances are high, most locations
should see rainfall amounts in the half inch to one inch range
today since the showers and thunderstorms should be moving at a
decent pace. The weather prediction center has mainly coastal
areas of louisiana in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall today
where more repetitive convection could occur. With much less
sunshine expected today, most locations should see high
temperatures staying below 90 degrees. Most of the rain should
diminish this evening but then redevelop again offshore overnight
and impact at least southwest portions of the area around south
central louisiana.

On Saturday, deep tropical moisture will persist and support high
rain chances again along with locally heavy rainfall. The heaviest
rainfall amounts are expected along the southwest and south central
louisiana coastline where there is a slight risk of excessive
rainfall, and the marginal risk extends across most inland portions
of south louisiana. At this time, a flash flood watch is not
warranted, however that could change if rainfall amounts exceed
what is expected.

A potent shortwave trough will be moving southeast from the central
and southern plains into the lower mississippi valley Sunday. This
will help pick up and phase in the mid level trough over the western
gulf coast region and pull it east across south louisiana. Once
again, this will maintain deep tropical moisture and a favorable
environment for fairly widespread rainfall and a threat of locally
very heavy downpours from heavier showers and thunderstorms. The
entire forecast area is in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on
Sunday and Sunday night. At this time, the average rainfall amounts
for the three days today through Sunday night are mostly in the 1 to
2 inch range, however this pattern will likely support some higher
totals in the 3 to 5 inch range, particularly south of i-10 in
louisiana.

Long term (Monday through Thursday)
This system should finally start to exit the region on Monday as the
mid level trough moves east, however there will still be deep
tropical moisture over the region to support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. In fact, it should remain a fairly wet
pattern Tuesday into Wednesday as a frontal boundary will start to
approach the region from the north as a fairly potent series of
shortwave troughs carve out a broader mid upper level trough across
the upper to mid mississippi valley and great lakes region. The
ecmwf is stronger pushing the cold front through the forecast area
on Thursday and Thursday night while the GFS keeps the boundary
mostly north of the forecast area. Have indicated a bit of a
drying trend for Thursday, but confidence is low at this time.

22 td

Aviation
All terminals currentlyVFR. Radar is showing an area of showers
moving onshore between kbve and khum. If they hold together, likely
to reach knew and kmsy prior to 10z. Have already added early
morning vcts to those, and may need to do the same for khdc and
kasd. Likely to see MVFR ceilings and ifr visibilities with these
showers storms.

Should see more daytime areal coverage of shra tsra than yesterday,
with significant areal coverage during the afternoon hours. Will
carry prevailing shra beyond 17-18z with vcts. Expect a diminishing
trend around 00z, with the cycle likely to repeat 24 hours from now.

35

Marine
No significant issues with prevailing light onshore winds and low
seas outside of convection, which is blossoming this morning. The
air mass will become increasingly more conducive for tropical funnel
and waterspout formation in the near shore waters, near shore
marshes and tidal lakes bays through at least the weekend. 24 35

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal risk excessive rainfall today Sunday.

Marginal to slight risk Saturday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 88 71 89 71 60 20 70 30
btr 87 74 88 74 70 20 70 30
asd 89 73 90 73 60 20 60 20
msy 88 77 89 76 70 20 60 30
gpt 86 74 88 74 60 20 50 40
pql 89 73 91 73 60 30 50 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi52 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 78°F 85°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi2.5 hrsN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1014.2 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi1.9 hrsE 310.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZR

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3S4CalmCalmE4S5S4S4S5SE8S6SE4SE6S4SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4NE5E5E8CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE4CalmCalm
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmE4CalmSE3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:04 AM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 AM CDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:06 AM CDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:58 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:12 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.41.41.41.41.31.210.90.70.50.40.30.30.40.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:01 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:39 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:58 AM CDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:41 AM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:58 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:56 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.21.21.21.21.21.21.31.31.31.31.21.210.80.60.40.30.30.30.40.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.