Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:37PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 5:21 AM CDT (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 2:10AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 352 Am Cdt Wed Apr 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Today..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers likely in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 352 Am Cdt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis.. Strong offshore flow of 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts will persist through the morning in the wake of a cold front. These winds will moderate through the afternoon. Onshore flow will become reestablished by Thursday afternoon ahead of another cold front. Widespread showers and Thunderstorms will move into the coastal waters Friday through early Saturday morning in response to this cold front with offshore flow developing once again in it's wake Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 210857 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 357 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Cold front racing across the area at about 40 mph early this morning, and likely to be clear of all of our land areas, and much of our coastal water, before sunrise. Other than a few mid-level clouds, the only noticeable effects of the front will be gusty winds and noticeably colder temperatures. At 3 AM CDT, temperatures generally ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s, but wouldn't doubt that the temperature in Wilkinson County, MS is in the upper 40s already. Likely to be seeing brief wind gusts around 25 mph behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM (through Friday night).

Main impactful weather over the next few days will be breezy to windy conditions with the cold frontal passage this morning, and the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall Friday night.

As noted in the synopsis, cold front is racing across the area early this morning. We may need a brief wind advisory downwind of Lake Pontchartrain (New Orleans metro) for a few hours this morning, will monitor observations behind the front over the lake over the next 90 minutes, and issue if needed prior to the morning rush hour.

Looking at high temperatures today 10 or more degrees cooler than yesterday, with overnight lows into Thursday morning upper 30s far north to around 50 south. Temperatures begin to moderate on Thursday by a few degrees late in the day as high pressure shifts to the east of the area.

Moisture increases Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave exits the southern Rockies. Could see some showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two by late in the day Friday. Main concern will be overnight Friday night as the shortwave coming out of the Rockies begins to take on a slightly negative tilt. As the low level jet increases, the environment will become favorable for severe weather in the warm sector of the system across northwest sections of the area by late in the night, per the Slight Risk in SPC's SWODY3. While the heaviest rain is likely to be focused to the north of the warm front (likely just north of our area), precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches could allow a quick 1-2 inches of rain, primarily north of the Interstate 10/12 corridors. Convection is likely to be near a McComb-Baton Rouge line around sunrise Saturday. 35

LONG TERM (Saturday and beyond).

A slightly negatively tilted upper level trough axis and surface front will be sweeping east across the forecast area Saturday morning. There will likely be a line of convection affecting areas mainly to the east of the I-55 corridor in Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi through the morning hours. Model sounding review indicates a fair degree of directional and speed shear will be in place with 0-3km storm relative helicity of up to 300m2/s2 and effective layer shear of 50 to 60 knots possible over portions of coastal Mississippi and the New Orleans metro area in the early to mid-morning hours. This degree of directional and speed shear would support the development of quasi-linear convective systems and potentially a few supercells in advance of the line. Mid-level lapse rates are also quite steep and wet bulb zero heights are fairly low at less than 10,000 feet. These parameters would support a hail risk, and thus all convective modes will be possible Saturday morning.

Conditions should quickly improve in the afternoon hours as a dry slot of air in the mid-levels pushes into the region from the west. Clearing skies and drier conditions will develop from west to east. By Saturday evening, mainly clear skies and little to no POP should remain over the CWA. This drying is evident in the precipitable water profiles which are projected to fall over half an inch from the morning through the evening hours. Temperatures will also warm in the wake of the front as strong subsidence takes hold and highs are expected to climb into the lower to middle 80s by Saturday afternoon.

Deep layer ridging will come to dominate the Gulf South on Sunday and this ridging will remain in full control of the region through Monday night. Strong subsidence throughout the atmospheric column will keep skies clear, humidity values low, and promote a larger than average diurnal range. Highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s each day and overnight lows will dip into the 50s and lower 60s.

The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east on Tuesday as a strong longwave trough moves into the Four Corners states. A deep layer southerly flow regime will develop over the area and moisture should gradually increase across the area through the day. A very strong mid-level capping inversion will remain in place on Tuesday, so only an increase in strato-cumulus development is expected. There may be a very isolated marine layer shower that forms during peak heating hours, but the risk is too low to mention at this time. Temperatures will above average with highs in the mid 80s forecast.

PG

AVIATION (Valid through 12z Thursday).

No significant changes in thinking from the evening TAF packages. Winds are already shifting north, and will be north at all terminals prior to the 12z package issuance. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots can be expected with the strongest wind gusts occurring at KNEW this morning. Winds should relax a bit after 18z with gusts of 15 to 20 knots more likely. Otherwise, a dry airmass will keep VFR conditions in place through Thursday. PG/35

MARINE.

Cold front will race through the coastal waters this morning. Cold air advection will transport stronger winds to the surface this morning, and Small Craft Advisory through 18z looks on track. Will follow that with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the remainder of the afternoon. Those headlines will likely need to be continued overnight tonight for most or all of the coastal waters. Any periods where winds will be below 15 knots will be brief for most of the open waters over the next several days, with no real respite until about Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 65 39 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 67 42 71 55 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 70 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 69 51 71 59 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 70 44 69 54 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 70 40 70 50 / 0 0 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi51 min NW 2.9 G 7 62°F 69°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi46 minN 15 G 2410.00 miFair50°F40°F67%1021.3 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi28 minN 8 G 2010.00 miFair52°F41°F66%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZR

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmN5NW7NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW10
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1 day agoCalm--CalmCalmNE4NE4CalmNE4N5W5NW6NW7NW6NW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6N5NW6N8N4N6NW8NW8NW3NW7NW6NW6NW4NW3CalmCalmN3N4N4N4N3N3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:16 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:13 PM CDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.21.110.80.60.40.30.20.20.30.50.81.11.31.51.61.61.51.51.41.31.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:55 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 PM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.110.90.70.50.30.20.20.20.30.50.70.91.21.41.51.51.41.41.31.31.21.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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