Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Simons, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 6:07 AM EDT (10:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 7:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Fernandina Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 315 Am Edt Tue May 11 2021
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 315 Am Edt Tue May 11 2021
Synopsis..A cold front to the north of the waters will slowly sink south towards the waters through Wednesday. The front will move into the georgia waters during the early evening hours on Wednesday...and across the northeast florida waters Wednesday night. Winds will shift to the northeast and increase along with building seas behind the front. Small craft advisory conditions are expected Wednesday night through Friday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2021 at 1200 utc... 63 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 71 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 80 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 86 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Simons, GA
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location: 31.13, -81.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 110820 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 420 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 . . COOLER WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS LATE THIS WEEK .

NEAR TERM [Today through Tonight]. A light westerly flow will continue today south of a frontal boundary currently located across north Georgia. Models show vertical wind shear and instability increasing this afternoon and evening which may result in isolated strong to severe storms as upper energy pushes towards the area in a zonal flow aloft. The east coast seabreeze will move inland to near the Highway 301 corridor by early evening which will be a focus for scattered convection. Showers and storms should weaken but may linger across se Ga tonight as upper impulses persist across the area. Conditions will remain warm and humid conditions with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Thursday Night].

A long wave trough digging slowly southward from New England will push a 140-knot jet streak at 250 millibars (around 35,000 feet) across the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday night and offshore by early Wednesday. This jet streak will create a highly diffluent west-southwesterly flow pattern aloft across our region, while the digging trough will push a wavy frontal boundary southward across southeast GA on Wednesday afternoon and through northeast and north central FL on Wednesday night. Shortwave energy embedded within the brisk west-southwesterly flow pattern will also traverse the Deep South on Wednesday afternoon and evening, which should focus a broken line of convection along the wavy frontal boundary that will be traversing our area from northwest to southeast.

Convection along this frontal boundary will likely not arrive until the noon hour along the Altamaha/Ocmulgee/Suwannee Rivers, allowing for ML CAPE values to reach 1,000-1,500 j/kg. Model soundings also depict cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates across our area during the afternoon hours, creating the potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorm development along the broken convective line despite only about 35-40 knots of bulk shear. Stronger activity will be capable of producing 40-60 mph wind gusts and small hail. Meanwhile, strengthening surface ridging in the wake of the front over the Great Lakes region will begin to wedge down the southeastern seaboard in the wake of the frontal passage, with a north-northeasterly wind surge spreading down the southeast GA coast during the late afternoon hours and reaching the FL border towards sunset. Ahead of the front and increasing convective coverage, highs will reach the 85-90 degree range for locations along and south of the FL/GA border, with earlier convective development keeping highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of southeast GA.

Convection will be ongoing along the frontal boundary for locations south of I-10 on Wednesday evening, while the northeasterly wind surge overspreads coastal northeast FL. Shower activity may continue along the coast overnight as convergent low level northeasterly flow quickly develops. Otherwise, a break in the shower activity is expected inland in the wake of the front, but cloud cover will remain thick as fast west-southwesterly flow continues aloft as the long wave trough digs southward from the Ohio into the Tennessee Valley. Cold air advection in the wake of the frontal passage will drop lows into the mid to upper 50s across southeast GA, except around 60 at coastal locations, where breezy onshore winds will persist. Lows will remain in the mid to upper 60s for locations south of I-10.

The digging trough will induce a more modest 90-knot jet streak at 250 millibars to develop on Thursday, along the northern Gulf coast, which will strengthen divergence aloft over our region and will advect more shortwave energy across our area. The frontal boundary will continue to sink southward through the FL peninsula, setting up a rainy, cool and breezy day at coastal locations as the aforementioned jet streak induces cyclogenesis off the northeast FL coast. Shower activity will also briefly increase at inland locations during the morning hours and will progress eastward and offshore by Thursday evening. Cloud cover and shower activity will keep highs in the low to mid 60s across most of southeast GA, which will be near record cool maximum temperatures for May 13th. Record cool max temps will also be possible across northeast FL, where highs will likely be held to the upper 60s and lower 70s, while highs climb to the mid 70s in north central FL.

Surface ridging will only slowly weaken as it builds over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday night, with developing low pressure offshore of the southeastern seaboard keeping breezy north-northeasterly winds in place at coastal locations, where scattered showers will be possible overnight. Cloud cover will be slow to clear overnight, but lows will still fall to the mid 50s across inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley, ranging to the low and mid 60s at coastal locations.

LONG TERM [Friday through Monday Night].

Expansive surface ridging over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard from Friday through the weekend and will then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast early next week. Convergent northeasterly flow may create a few coastal showers over northeast FL that may push inland across the St. Johns River on Friday. Cloud cover will begin to thin from west to east on Friday afternoon and evening, with cool air advection keeping highs below normal, with mid 70s at most locations, ranging to the lower 80s for inland north central FL.

A drier air mass will then overspread our region from Friday night through the weekend as low level flow gradually veers from northeasterly to easterly by Sunday and Monday. Breezy conditions will continue at coastal locations, keeping highs in the 70s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Below normal highs in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected to continue at inland locations on Saturday despite mostly sunny skies, followed by moderating temperatures on Sunday and Monday, as highs climb to the mid and upper 80s along the I-75 corridor by Monday afternoon. Lows will remain in the mid 50s for inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley on Friday and Saturday nights and will then warm to the lower 60s by Monday night.

MARINE. A cold front to the north of the waters will slowly sink south towards the waters through Wednesday. The front will move into the Georgia waters during the early evening hours on Wednesday . and across the ne Fl waters Wednesday night. Light westerly winds south of the front will shift to the northeast and increase behind the front as a large and strong area of high pressure builds southeast from the northern Plains. Seas will also increase with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely developing Wednesday night through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the waters Wednesday through Thursday.

Rip Currents: Low risk Today and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER.

Light southwesterly surface and transport winds are expected before sea breezes develop and move inland from the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, resulting in poor dispersion values for all but north central Florida today. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread by Wednesday afternoon and evening, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible area-wide. Breezy westerly transport winds will develop shortly after sunrise, and later arriving thunderstorm activity will allow for good dispersion values for locations south of I-10. Stronger thunderstorms today and Wednesday will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail. Surface and transport winds will shift to north-northeasterly on Thursday, with gusty conditions at coastal locations. Widespread rainfall is expected for locations east of I-75. Low daytime dispersion values are forecast for southeast Georgia and along the I-10 corridor on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 86 67 76 55 66 / 30 40 60 40 40 SSI 85 70 80 62 71 / 40 40 60 40 40 JAX 88 68 86 65 72 / 10 10 60 30 40 SGJ 86 69 85 68 75 / 30 10 50 30 40 GNV 89 66 89 65 78 / 40 10 40 10 40 OCF 91 68 91 68 81 / 20 0 30 10 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 21 mi67 min WNW 4.1 71°F 1017 hPa (+0.0)69°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 30 mi37 min 72°F 72°F1 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi49 min W 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 76°F1017.5 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 33 mi77 min W 9.7 G 12 74°F 73°F2 ft1016.9 hPa (-0.0)71°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA1 mi74 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F68°F84%1017.3 hPa
Brunswick / Glynco, GA10 mi72 minW 510.00 miFair69°F65°F88%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSSI

Wind History from SSI (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW6NW6N7N8NW8--E7SE10SE9SE9SE12SE9S7S43S4S5S5S4SW4SW4SW5SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Simons Light, Georgia
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St. Simons Light
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Tue -- 03:16 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:15 PM EDT     7.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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42.410.40.61.63.24.866.56.15.23.82.30.90.20.41.63.45.36.87.57.36.3

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3)
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     1.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:57 PM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:45 PM EDT     2.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.4-1-0.11.11.91.91.40.4-0.8-1.6-1.8-1.6-1.2-0.60.11.32.32.62.11.2

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