Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brunswick, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:52PM Thursday January 21, 2021 9:04 PM EST (02:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 801 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of rain after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 801 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis.. A front across georgia will shift southward across north florida Friday. The front will stall across central florida Saturday as high pressure builds northeast of the region as a coastal trough develops over the local waters into Sunday. A warm front will lift north over the local waters Monday with an increase in south winds late Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 21, 2021 at 1200 utc... 62 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 69 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 77 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brunswick, GA
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location: 31.14, -81.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 220143 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 843 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

. WARMER AND BECOMING CLOUDY WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING SE GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT .

UPDATE.

A surface front was across southern Georgia with a ridge shifting east across south Florida. Aloft, the southern stream jet spewed across the deep south this evening over a ridge axis across the southern GOMEX. Embedded short wave trough energy and lobes of PVA will continue to stream over the frontal zone late tonight into Friday as the surface front is bridged by high pressure building north of it. This will shift the front across our GA zones tonight and then N FL Friday morning, with stratiform rainfall expected to increase in coverage and intensity after midnight tonight across SE GA, approaching the FL-GA state-line through sunrise Friday. 00z RAOBs continued to show stable mid-levels with thunderstorms not expected. Storm total rainfall of 0.50-1 inch is expected across SE GA through Friday evening with less than a quarter inch mainly south of the I-10 corridor. Included fog after midnight combined with rainfall, with a batch of fog still possible generally south of the I-10 corridor early Fri morning where low level stratus could shift inland from the GOMEX just ahead of the front and settle toward the surface as temps cool through sunrise.

Temperatures will be above climo tonight due to cloudy skies and warm low level WSW winds. Lows will range in the 50s to near 60 toward the St. Johns River basin.

MARINE.

A front across Georgia tonight will shift southward across north Florida through Friday. WSW winds will continue tonight and given elevated winds just above the surface (30 kts at 2 kft per 00z JAX RAOB) opted to headline Small Craft Exercise Caution for our outer waters tonight for winds 15-20 kts. Combined seas will continue generally 3 ft or less. Rain will increase over the GA coastal waters after midnight tonight and will persist through Friday shifting southward toward N Fl waters. With dew pts/water temps/air temps in the 50s tonight and weakening winds, there could be some sea fog form across portions of our SE GA coastal waters late tonight, and included patchy fog in the forecast.

Rip Currents: Low risk Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION [701 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Long west to east oriented frontal boundary will be just to the north of forecast area this afternoon. Most of the precipitation associated with this boundary will be along and north of the front, but a few spotty showers can not be ruled out over SE GA. The boundary will sink south into SE GA Tonight, with waves of energy moving east along it. With the position of the front, best chance for showers Tonight will be across SE GA, with a few showers down to the I10 corridor possible. Warm advection across the region Tonight will yield low temperatures well above normal. Moist southwest flow across the gulf, will produce fog which will move across inland NE FL Tonight. A period of dense fog will be possible late Tonight into Friday morning, especially along the I75 corridor.

The front will sink further south to near the GA/FL line Friday afternoon. The main wave will move along the front mid day, with subsidence on the back side, decreasing precipitation chances late in the afternoon. Highest precipitation chances will be along and north of I10 corridor Friday. Temperatures on Friday vary greatly depending on the location of the front, and precipitation coverage. Highs in the 60s will be common along and north of I10, while readings could get into the 70s to the south. The exact location of the front could waver north and south through the day though as waves move along it. So, there is a good bit of uncertainty as to the temperature forecast especially for areas around I10 corridor. Instability looks too low to support thunderstorms with this system.

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday].

Friday night a wave of low pressure will move along the slow moving front draped across our area. The low will track just south of I-10 over NE FL and push offshore early Saturday morning. There is a chance of patchy to area of fog Friday night into Saturday morning. The front will gradually travel south throughout the day on Saturday into central and southern Florida while a mid/upper level ridge begins to build to the west. Northeasterly surface flow on Saturday and Sunday will cause a coastal trough to develop and bring slight chances for coastal showers on Sunday, and a weak warm front will lift across the area Sunday night. High temperatures in the low- to-mid 60s Saturday and increasing Sunday as the warm front lifts.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday].

Early next week the mid/upper level ridge will continue to build to the west and northwest, but a trough located over the southwestern United States will eject several shortwave troughs to the eastern United States. One of these shortwaves will bring a low pressure system across the Tennessee Valley towards the Mid- Atlantic on Monday, which will bring a trailing cold front to our area Monday night into Tuesday. This cold front will bring a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms Monday night into early Tuesday, but it will weaken as it moves south. Models vary Tuesday night into Wednesday with the ECMWF pushing the cold front farther south on Wednesday, while the GFS and Canadian model push the front offshore as another low pressure system moves out of the Gulf and across our area Wednesday night. The ECMWF brings a low out of the Gulf on a more northward track early on Thursday similar to what the GFS and Canadian model were showing for Wednesday. As next week approaches, timing for the potential Gulf low should become more clear.

Temperatures for this period will trend above average. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s, and some locations in NE FL could even hit 80 degrees. Temperatures decrease slightly Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s for SE FL and 70s for NE FL.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Saturday]

Continued VFR conditions this evening under elevated WSW winds between a surface front approaching from north GA and high pressure shifting east across south FL. Low ceilings and light to moderate rainfall will progressively settle across the terminals late tonight from north to south after 06z with MVFR first impacting SSI generally between 06-08z and then settling southward toward JAX- VQQ-CRG through 10-12z. Prevailing VFR conditions continue for SGJ while some patchy MVFR VSBYS possible at GNV in the 08-14z time frame, but recent high-resolution guidance has been backing off of this solution given elevated boundary layer winds. High confidence of continued lowering ceilings through Friday morning of IFR to LIFR under persistent light to moderate rain at SSI and JAX 10-14z, then low ceilings settling southward toward VQQ-CRG through 15z. Lowered GNV and SGJ to MVFR 16-18z. Low ceilings will continue to funnel southward through 00z Fri evening, with restrictions falling into the IFR to LIFR range likely after 00z Sat. WSW winds this evening in the 6-10 kt range will gradually weaken through the night as the pressure gradient relaxes. WSW winds will continue into Fri with speeds generally 5-8 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 56 61 45 60 42 / 100 100 30 0 10 SSI 56 61 49 58 48 / 80 100 30 0 10 JAX 58 67 52 63 50 / 40 70 30 0 10 SGJ 56 69 55 64 54 / 10 30 10 0 10 GNV 55 71 55 67 52 / 10 20 10 10 10 OCF 54 71 57 70 53 / 0 10 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 23 mi64 min W 7 62°F 1014 hPa (+0.0)55°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi70 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 68°F 57°F1015.6 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 32 mi64 min 63°F 58°F1 ft
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 39 mi74 min W 9.7 G 12 60°F 55°F1 ft1014.5 hPa (+0.0)53°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA7 mi71 minSW 510.00 miOvercast66°F51°F59%1014.7 hPa
Brunswick / Glynco, GA9 mi69 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast64°F52°F64%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSSI

Wind History from SSI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3CalmW3SW3W4W5CalmW3W4SW7SW5SW5SW6SW8W11W5W11SW7SW8W5SW5SW8
1 day agoS3CalmW3SW5SW5SW6W6W6W6W7W6W6W86SW9W7W10
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2 days agoCalmW3W3CalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4E7E7SE7SE7SE7SE6SE6SE5S3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, East River, Georgia
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Brunswick
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Thu -- 01:04 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:49 AM EST     6.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM EST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 PM EST     5.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:17 PM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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45.26.16.35.84.83.52.41.61.41.72.43.44.45.35.85.64.83.62.31.30.80.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3)
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     1.84 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:58 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:06 PM EST     1.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM EST     -1.37 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.61.81.50.9-0-0.8-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.50.111.41.20.7-0-0.9-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.