Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 7:42 AM EDT (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:32AMMoonset 7:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Fernandina Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 315 Am Edt Tue May 11 2021
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the late afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 315 Am Edt Tue May 11 2021
Synopsis..A cold front to the north of the waters will slowly sink south towards the waters through Wednesday. The front will move into the georgia waters during the early evening hours on Wednesday...and across the northeast florida waters Wednesday night. Winds will shift to the northeast and increase along with building seas behind the front. Small craft advisory conditions are expected Wednesday night through Friday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2021 at 1200 utc... 63 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 71 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 80 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 86 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 111131 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 731 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will advance into the area today then will gradually settle south of the area and stall Wednesday. A series of low pressure areas will track along the stationary front until late week. High pressure will expand into the region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: A zonal flow aloft will prevail through the day, which prevents a backdoor cold front that is still north of the area at the start of the day from making much progress to the south. Moisture gradually increases, but with a deep westerly flow throughout, forcing will be limited. Thus our prospects for rainfall are again quite low.

However, a short wave does move in late in the day, coinciding with the sea breeze boundary located roughly near or just inland from the US-17 corridor by that time. MLCAPE isn't overly impressive, only around 1000-1500 J/kg, while lapse rates are modest and better than yesterday. These conditions will support the formation of isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly along the sea breeze and any boundaries that can advance in from the west. This will take until around 2 or 3 pm, when we reach our convective temperature.

Given that bulk shear is as great as 30-40 kt, there is a non- zero risk for isolated strong or marginally severe thunderstorms.

Although there will be varying amounts of clouds at different layers through the day, 850 mb temperatures will be as high as 14-15C. With an offshore flow, this will support max temperatures ranging from 79-83F north of I-26 in South Carolina, to 83-86F most elsewhere. The sea breeze circulation this afternoon, albeit rather weak, will hold the barrier islands down mostly between 75 and 80F.

Tonight: There have been very times the past several weeks with rainfall, but prospects look good for wet weather to impact the area. The backdoor cold front slides south into the region and although there are model differences on how far south it gets through the night, consensus is that it reaches near the I-16 corridor of Georgia by 6 AM Wednesday. Moisture increases fairly substantially as the low and mid level flows becomes more south and southwest. The resulting PWat to climb as high as 1.7 to 1.9 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

The chances of rain will increase through the night, with forcing to come not only due to the proximity of the front, but also a short wave aloft that rides through after about 06Z. Isentropic ascent also strengthens, and there will be weak frontogenesis within the local areas, mainly north. We show convective rains to increase from the west-southwest to the east-northeast. through 6 AM we have PoPs as high as 60-70% most communities, with 40-50% chances south of Savannah to McIntosh and Long County.

With the mean flow of showers and a few thunderstorms to be oriented parallel to the position of the front, some training of cells can occur, enough so that locally heavy rains can occur. On average we have around 1/4 to 3/4 inches. But the HREF has as much as 75-95% chances of greater than 1 inch, mainly near and west of I-95, with even some 30-50% probabilities of 2 inches or more across our northwest tier.

Temperatures will be highly dependent on how far south the front is able to make it through the night, as we currently have lows from the upper 50s and lower 60s north and northwest, to the mid and upper 60s south and southeast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Wednesday: A stationary front will linger in the vicinity as surface low pressure and upper level disturbances shift through the region. Wednesday looks to be the wettest day in the short-term as isentropic lift and moisture will be plentiful. PWATs will approach 1.5 to 2.0 inches. While there could be isolated heavier showers, the threat of any widespread flooding remains low. The thunder potential remains low as surface instability will be lacking. Though, have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms across far SE GA. While severe weather is not expected, winds will be breezy, especially along the coast. The temperature forecast might be tricky as a wedge of high pressure pushes into the region. Therefore, a large temperature spread is expected. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland and upper 70s across far SE GA. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday: The stationary front will shift further south and isentropic lift will move away from the area. With lingering moisture, there is a still a chance for precipitation throughout the day and overnight. Though, at this time, it looks as if showers will be light and isolated. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be completely ruled as there will be elevated instability. Due to insufficient surface instability and a cooler air mass, severe weather is not expected. High temperatures will be in the 60s. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.

Friday: By daybreak, the latest 00Z guidance suggests some remaining light showers across the southern tier of the Charleston tri-county and across the waters. Lingering moisture will keep clouds around for much of the day, before clearing out late. Overall though, a mostly dry day is expected. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.

Lake winds: Strengthening low-level winds and unusually cool air flowing over the warmer waters of Lake Moultrie could promote vigorous mixing/occasional wind gusts as high as 20-25 knots Wednesday through Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure and a much drier air mass will build into the region and prevail through early next week. A gradual warming trend will continue through the weekend and by Monday, high temperatures will be back in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Friday night will see low temperatures in the low to mid 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s just along the coast. Thereafter, each night will see temps a few degrees warmer than the previous night.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions expected to prevail today, as any risk for SHRA/TSRA along the sea breeze boundary after 19Z is too low to include with the 12Z TAFs.

Over-running rains will develop tonight as a cold front slips into the area, and short wave energy aloft moves through. With deep moisture in place, we look for -RA/RA to impact the terminals after 04-06Z, with a low end chance of TSRA, especially at KSAV. Flight restrictions at least down into the MVFR range will occur, but IFR is certainly possible.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible through late week during periods of low clouds and showers/thunderstorms.

MARINE. Today: The pressure pattern becomes rather nebulous ahead of a slow moving backdoor cold front to our north, allowing for weak sea breeze circulations to develop this afternoon. We begin the day with W or locally NW winds no more than about 10 or 12 kt. The south progress of the cold front might sneak into the AMZ350 waters late, and that along with the sea breeze allows for winds to turn onshore at similar speeds this afternoon. Seas won't be any higher than 2 or perhaps 3 feet.

Tonight: The backdoor cold front is currently expected to reach near or just south of the Savannah River entrance by 6 AM. Since the best cool advection and larger isallobaric pressure rises look to stay to our north, no Small Craft Advisories will occur, at least just yet. Winds will generally be NE or E on the South Carolina waters, and E and SE over the Georgia waters. Wind speeds will be no more than 10 or 12 kt, with seas mainly unchanged.

Wednesday through Sunday: As high pressure moves south into the region and a stationary front lingers in the vicinity on Wednesday, a tightened pressure gradient will enhance NE winds and seas. Then, over the weekend, high pressure will build into the area.

A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Charleston and SC nearshore waters starting Wednesday. While winds should slightly relax by Friday, seas will remain over 6 feet through at least early Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston Harbor will also begin Wednesday and last through Thursday for winds gusting over 25 knots. By Sunday, more ideal marine conditions should return.

For the Georgia nearshore and offshore waters, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by Wednesday evening. NE winds will remain elevated through late week. For the outer Georgia waters, seas are expected to remain over 6 feet through early Sunday.

Rip currents: An elevated risk of rip currents is possible through late week due to gusty northeast winds.

CLIMATE. An unseasonably cool air mass, accompanied by clouds and showers, could challenge the following record low maximum temperatures Wednesday 5/12 and Thursday 5/13.

CHS 5/12 69 (1963) 5/13 68 (1996)

CXM 5/12 65 (1907) 5/13 68 (1996)

SAV 5/12 69 (1885) 5/13 69 (1928)

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ350-352.



NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . MARINE . CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi102 min WNW 2.9 70°F 1017 hPa (+0.0)69°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi52 min W 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 73°F2 ft1016.8 hPa (+0.5)70°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi72 min 72°F 72°F1 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi72 min W 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 76°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi47 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F64°F94%1017.6 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi49 minW 410.00 miFair71°F68°F90%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE5S10S13S15SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Wolf Island, south end, Georgia
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Wolf Island
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Tue -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:08 AM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:19 PM EDT     7.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.32.81.40.50.41.32.94.55.96.46.25.34.12.61.20.30.21.2356.67.47.36.5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:55 AM EDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     7.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.82.20.80.30.723.65.26.36.76.25.13.620.70.10.623.95.87.17.77.46.3

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