Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:59PM Sunday August 25, 2019 7:18 PM EDT (23:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:42AMMoonset 3:04PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- 324 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft exercise caution...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots through early evening. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night and Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 324 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis.. A surface trough lingering across the local waters will lift north Monday. Another front will settle across south georgia Tuesday and linger through Wednesday. A broad low is expected to form along this meandering front late in the week, then gradually shift westward this weekend as high pressure builds north of the local area.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 24, 2019 at 1200 utc... 52 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 59 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 73 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 91 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 252013
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
413 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail inland, while a stationary front
lingers south and east of the area early this week. Meanwhile,
low pressure is expected to pass well off the southeast coast. A
cold front will impact the region during the middle of the week
before high pressure returns late week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
The surface pattern will be somewhat complex. A wedge of high
pressure will be to our north while a stationary front will
generally be to our south. Finally, low pressure deciding
whether it wants to form into a tropical system or not is far to
our east and moving away. The high will be the most dominant of
these features, which will give a majority of our area dry
conditions tonight. However, models do show some light showers
developing over the coastal waters, then making a run for and
possibly brushing our coastal ga counties late tonight. Hence,
we have slight chance pops there. Otherwise mostly cloudy skies
should persist. Due to the front nearby. Lows will generally be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
Monday: a cooler wedge-type pattern will persist across southeast
south carolina and much of southeast georgia behind a stalled front
positioned south of the area. Precip chances will be quite low
across southeast south carolina within a prevailing northeast sfc
wind. Further south, sfc winds could be more directly onshore,
helping moisture linger north of the front along near the altamaha
river. The effects of the wedge will also not be as strong south,
allowing temps to warm into the mid to perhaps upper 80s. Marginal
instability and weak isentropic lift suggest few to scattered
showers during the morning, then perhaps a few thunderstorms during
mid late afternoon near the altamaha river. Any convection should
wane dissipate during early overnight hours. Low temps should remain
cooler, dipping into the upper 60s north and away from the coast in
southeast south carolina to low mid 70s south and closer to the
coast in southeast georgia.

Tuesday: a quasi-stationary front should remain just south of the
region, but a wedge-like pattern should weaken across the southeast
united states in advance of a mid upper lvl trough of low pressure
and associated sfc cold front approaching the region from the west.

A southwest sfc flow ahead of the front will advect deeper moisture
to the region while mid upper lvl forcing arrives late. Given the
anticipated pattern, scattered to numerous showers and or
thunderstorms are possible later in the day, highest chances west of
i-95. Temps should warm a few degrees more than the previous day
with highs generally ranging in the mid upper 80s. Some locations
could experience temps in the lower 90s well inland in southeast
georgia.

Wednesday: a larger mid upper lvl trough of low pressure will shift
across the midwest and toward the mid-atlantic states, helping push
a sfc cold front into the area. The pattern should support the
wettest conditions of the week as the front encounters deep moisture
characterized by pwats 2.25-2.50 inches and modest instability. At
this time, chances of severe weather remain fairly low, but can not
be ruled out during near fropa. Regardless, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of the area. High
temps should warm into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
A cold front is expected to pass offshore Wednesday night or
Thursday which will then linger in the vicinity through late week as
high pressure builds in from the west. Models vary in regards to
timing of frontal passage, with the euro the quicker solution. This
makes for a lower confidence rainfall forecast as rain chances will
hinge on frontal position. Overall, went with consensus pops of
around 40% during the daytime hours. Temperatures will be
seasonable.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
18z tafs: satellite imagery shows abundant clouds across the
southeast, while lots of surface observations show MVFR
ceilings. With this in mind, and the fact that the clouds have
not lifted much with the afternoon sun, we opted to go more
pessimistic and keep MVFR ceilings for a majority of the taf
time period. It's possible the TAF sites may have a window of
sctVFR this afternoon, so we tried to account for this with a
tempo group. Overnight, the ceilings should gradually lift,
allowing for a return toVFR around daybreak Monday. But there
is a lot of uncertainty with the timing.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions will likely persist
at both chs and sav terminals Monday, due to low clouds associated
with a wedge of high pressure. Brief flight restrictions are then
possible with showers thunderstorms on Tuesday, then again on
Wednesday with showers thunderstorms along a passing cold front.

Marine
Tonight: a strong wedge of high pressure will persist inland and
to our north, while a stationary front is generally to our
south, and finally a low is to our east. The interaction
between all of these features has led to an increased surface
pressure gradient, which is causing elevated winds. We are
continuing the small craft advisory for amz350 due to wind gusts
around 25 kt. Elsewhere, gusts should be around 20 kt.

Additionally, seas have responded to these winds by building.

Seas up to 6 ft are forecasted for amz374, so we also issued a
small craft advisory here. Conditions are forecasted to be at
their worst just after midnight, then gradually start to improve
as the gradient lowers.

Monday through Friday: high pressure will prevail inland while
tropical low pressure tracks north northeast, well east of coastal
waters offshore. The pattern will initially favor a tightened
pressure gradient over coastal waters Monday with north northeast
winds topping out around 15-20 kts and seas building up to 4-6 ft,
highest across offshore georgia waters. For this reason, a small
craft advisory will continue across offshore georgia waters early
Monday before the tropical low departs north northeast of the
region. Winds will weaken considerably by Tuesday, becoming onshore
and remaining 10 kts or less. By Wednesday, winds should become
more offshore ahead of a cold front approaching the from the west.

The front should shift over coastal waters Thursday, then linger in
the vicinity through late week. At this time, winds and seas are
expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria mid to late
week.

Rip currents: increasing east northeast winds could contribute to an
enhanced risk of rip currents on area beaches early week, especially
if tropical low pressure intensifies while tracking well offshore.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated tide levels are expected this week with the approach of the
lunar perigee and new moon this Friday. Coastal flooding will be
possible during the evening high tide cycles, starting as early as
Monday, but more likely during the latter half of the week. In
addition, there is the potential for some heavy rain around the
times of high tide which could exacerbate any flooding issues.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt Monday for amz374.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for amz350.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi79 min ENE 7 82°F 1015 hPa (-2.0)72°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi29 min NE 14 G 18 78°F 82°F3 ft1014.7 hPa (-0.4)73°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi19 min 82°F4 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi49 min 84°F 83°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi64 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F72°F76%1015.2 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi86 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F69%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBQK

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE4CalmE3--Calm------N6--N6NW7N9N11N10
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1 day agoSE10SE6SE5----Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3N6NE9
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2 days agoSE11SE7SE4----SE6CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5W4E4E10SE9SE6SE11SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf Island, south end, Georgia
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Wolf Island
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Sun -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:36 PM EDT     7.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:35 PM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.43.64.85.76.15.85.142.81.70.90.81.52.94.76.27.27.36.75.64.43.22.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
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Sun -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:50 AM EDT     6.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:23 PM EDT     7.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:03 PM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.15.36.16.35.84.83.62.31.20.70.923.75.46.87.57.46.65.342.61.61.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.