Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Red Level, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:38PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 8:43 PM CDT (01:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 328 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 5 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Winds light becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Winds light becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 328 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 5 2020
Synopsis..A generally light wind flow pattern is expected to close out the week and continue through the weekend. Little change in seas. Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Level, AL
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location: 31.33, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 052338 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 638 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday afternoon. /13

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 238 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/ . 05.12Z upper air analysis continues to show a long-wave upper trough axis positioned from the Great Lakes southward into the central Gulf. With respect to climatology, deep layer moisture remains substantially below normal with pwat values ranging from 1.2 to 1.4 inches over much of the area today. Even so, there is enough moisture present which when combined with ascent offered by the passage of weak mid-level impulses in the mean trough position, presence of weak surface pressure trough and afternoon instability over the deep south would favor initiation of isolated afternoon storms. This is supported by the latest high resolution HRRR runs and to a lesser degree the 3KM NAM, WRF ARW/NMM 05.12Z runs. Visible satellite is showing cu growth and radar indicates storms beginning to pop-up over the river valleys to the I-10 corridor. A few storms could produce brief strong wind gusts this afternoon. Will call for a typical summer-time convective mode. Isolated convection that may carry over into the evening is forecast to show a dissipating trend. Overnight lows 68 to 73 over the interior. 76 to 81 coast.

Between two upper ridges, one over TX and the other over the southwest Atlantic, upper trough de-amplifies a bit over the local area Thursday. What's left is a general weakness in the geo-potential height field aloft into the afternoon. The deeper layer atmospheric profile will continue to be lower than normal with pwat values generally from 1.3 to 1.5 inches along and east of I-65 and 1.1 to 1.3 inches west of the interstate. Meanwhile, a very diffuse surface pressure trough remains draped from the southeast US to the central Gulf coast. Will maintain wording of mainly isolated shower/storms Thursday afternoon with the boundary in the area combined with coastal sea-breeze convergence. Do not see anything supportive of PoPs higher than ~ 20 percent and mainly over inland areas (especially northeast interior). Hot temps will continue with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices generally remain in the upper 90s Thursday. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/ . An upper trof over the interior eastern states, which extends modestly to the north central Gulf coast, slowly weakens and moves off into the western Atlantic during the period. An upper level weakness remains in place over the north central Gulf coast into the lower Mississippi River valley meanwhile, located between the westward extension of a western Atlantic upper ridge and another upper ridge centered over the south central states. A surface trof/weak frontal boundary will be located from near coastal Louisiana into central Georgia Thursday evening between an expansive surface ridge over the interior eastern states and another surface ridge over the northern Gulf. As the surface ridge gradually strengthens over the northern Gulf and the surface ridge to the north retreats a bit, the surface trof shifts slowly inland and weakens, possibly dissipating by Saturday night. Limited deep layer moisture over the area Thursday evening, with precipitable water values of 1.1-1.5 inches, gradually improves through Saturday with precipitable water values increasing to 1.6-1.9 inches. A diurnal cycle of convection is expected, but initially limited deep layer moisture coverage will hold coverage to isolated at best on Friday and confined to roughly from extreme southeast Mississippi into south central Alabama/western Florida panhandle where the surface trof/weak boundary and a weak sea breeze will aid in convective development. For Saturday, have gone with slight chance pops over the entire area as the weak surface trof/boundary drifts inland along with some support expected from a weak sea breeze. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s each day while lows generally range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Afternoon heat index values on Friday will be mainly 98 to 103 then on Saturday values of 101 to 106 are expected. A low risk of rip currents continues through Saturday night. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/ . The modest upper level weakness manages to linger near the north central Gulf coast to along the lower Mississippi River valley through Wednesday between the upper ridges located to the west and east. A surface ridge is expected to persist over the northern Gulf which promotes a light southerly flow over the forecast area, and deep layer moisture continues on a gradually increasing trend with precipitable water values of 1.7-1.9 inches on Sunday increasing to around 2.0 inches through the period. A typical diurnal convective cycle is expected through the period although coverage will trend a bit higher with the improving convective environment (moisture). Will have initially low end chance pops on Sunday which slowly trend to good chance pops areawide Tuesday into Wednesday. /29

MARINE . No marine impacts expected except for locally higher winds and seas near any storms that develop. /10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 69 mi56 min 87°F 89°F1013.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 79 mi44 min Calm 88°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 82 mi56 min 88°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andalusia, Andalusia-Opp Municipal Airport, AL17 mi48 minNW 310.00 miFair85°F73°F70%1013.4 hPa
Evergreen, Middleton Field, AL18 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair80°F73°F79%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K79J

Wind History from 79J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm43NW7CalmSW6S5SW4SW3NW3
1 day agoNW3NW3NW4W3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7--N6CalmNW6SW3NW4NW6N3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmW4NW3CalmCalmW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalm3N7NW7NW6NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:33 PM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.20.30.30.50.60.70.91.11.31.51.71.81.91.91.81.71.51.310.80.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:40 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:16 PM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:18 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.811.21.41.61.71.81.91.91.81.61.41.210.80.60.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fort Rucker, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.