Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Red Level, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:47PM Sunday December 15, 2019 2:47 AM CST (08:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:25PMMoonset 10:44AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 1023 Pm Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Rest of tonight..Winds light becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog.
Sunday..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of fog in the morning.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 18 to 23 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1023 Pm Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis..Light west to southwest winds will become more southerly overnight tonight into Sunday. Areas of dense fog possible over portions of the marine area tonight and early Sunday. A cold front approaching the region will bring increasing onshore flow and building seas Monday into Monday night, before moving south of area waters Tuesday morning. Strong to very strong offshore flow will follow the fron's passage when a small craft advisory will likely be needed beginning Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Level, AL
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location: 31.33, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 150557 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1157 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. 06Z issuance . IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected overnight in dense fog. Conditions improve Sunday morning with VFR conditions developing. /13

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 1013 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

DISCUSSION . See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE . Surface observations, Satellite (Nighttime Microphysics Channel) and public reports indicate that dense fog is developing and becoming more widespread across portions of the forecast area. We have issued a Dense Fog Advisory, valid for the remainder of the night and until 10 AM Sunday morning for the western half of our forecast area, roughly from the around the Mobile Bay area northward to choctaw county and then westward for all of our interior southeast Mississippi counties. We will monitor to see if we need to extend the advisory further east overnight, but for now model data suggests most of the dense fog should remain over the western half of our forecast area. Otherwise, forecast for the overnight appears to be in good shape. /12

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 956 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

DISCUSSION . See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE . Surface observations, Satellite (Nighttime Microphysics Channel) and public reports indicate that dense fog is developing and becoming more widespread across portions of the forecast area. We have issued a Dense Fog Advisory, valid for the remainder of the night and until 10 AM Sunday morning for the western half of our forecast area, roughly from the around the Mobile Bay area northward to choctaw county and then westward for all of our interior southeast Mississippi counties. We will monitor to see if we need to extend the advisory further east overnight, but for now model data suggests most of the dense fog should remain over the western half of our forecast area. Otherwise, forecast for the overnight appears to be in good shape. /12

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 632 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE . Went ahead and issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for Mobile Bay, MS Sound and the adjacent near shore Gulf waters. So far the dense fog has be rather patchy and visibilities somewhat variable, but will likely become more widespread and persistent overnight. Currently the fog seems to be focused around the Dauphin Island area. MWW already sent, new CWF product coming soon. /12

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 359 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/ . Surface high pressure moves north over the Florida Peninsula tonight into Sunday, bringing a more southerly flow to the forecast area. A warm front is expected to move north across the region Sunday. For tonight, the return of a more southerly flow north of the approaching warm front will increase the expanse of stratus that has stubbornly remained over areas along and west of the Tombigbee River to the rest of the forecast area. As temperatures cool tonight, fog development is likely, though guidance is inconsistent on where and how dense the fog will be north of the approaching warm front. Have went with general fog development tonight, but have leaned towards the SREF position of lower visibilities north of the coast and west of I-65, with the SREF having a better placement of lower visibilities the last few days. Have worded patchy dense at this point, to highlight the possibility, but allow for some flexibility in handling the development tonight. As the stratus and fog increase in coverage, radiational cooling will become increasing cut off, with northeastern portions of the forecast area seeing the most cooling. Have leaned on the warm side of guidance, especially western portions of the forecast area with the forecast starting off with a persistent stratus deck these areas. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s southwestern portions of the forecast area and along the coast to mid 40s northeastern-most portions.

Sunday, the stratus desk will be slow to mix out north of the approaching warm front. The warm front is expected to move north across the forecast area late morning into the afternoon. With the limited daytime heating, have leaned on the cooler side of guidance, especially northern portions of the forecast area. Another wild card is the possibility of sea fog development along the coast over and west of Mobile bay due to the warmer flow following the front's passage over cooler near coastal waters. Guidance is not indicating at this point, but will continue to monitor. High temperatures Sunday are expected to range from around 70 closer to the coast to low 60s north of Highway 84. /16

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/ . The risk of strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and Monday night continues to increase with each model run. The zonal flow aloft on Sunday transitions to deep southwest flow as a strong upper level trough exiting the Rocky Mountains moves over the Great Plains, with precipitable water values increasing to between 1.5 to 1.7 inches by late Monday evening. This upper trough will initiate a surface low pressure area across the ARKLATEX region by Monday morning that will lift northeast, reaching West Virginia by midnight. In addition, an associated strong cold front approaching the region from the northwest will pass through the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday. The region will reside well within the warm sector on Monday, with high temperatures ranging from 75 to 80 degrees, along with surface dewpoints ranging from 63 to 68 degrees.

Precipitation will increase Monday afternoon to 60 to 80 percent over southeast Mississippi and inland southwest Alabama, with a 20 to 50 percent chance further east. An 80 to 90 percent chance is forecast over the entire area Monday night. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable with MLCAPES ranging from 1500 to 2500 J/KG. SBCAPES will be even higher, possibly reaching as high as 3500 J/KG Monday evening according to the NAM12. Deep layer effective shear on the order of 55 to 65 knots is currently forecast ahead of and along the squall line moving in from the west. Strong low and mid level shear will increase on Monday as well, with 0-3km SR Helicity values ranging from 200-350 m2/s2. Strong mid/upper ascent will also be present as we reside under the right entrance region of a 130 knot 300mb jet max. This type of environment should support all severe weather hazards, including damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and localized small hail.

The cold front moves through late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the precipitation tapering off through the day Tuesday. Dry conditions area-wide will follow Tuesday night. Dramatic change in temperatures occurs on Tuesday in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the 50s northwest of I-65, and low to mid 60s to the southeast. Lows Tuesday night will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s. /22

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . The Cold and dry weather will persist Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds east across the Deep South and into the Southeast. Highs each afternoon stay in the 50s and lows each night range from upper 20s inland to low 30s closer to the coast. Freezing temperatures will be possible all the way down to the coast Wednesday night. A gradual warming trend begins Thursday as the surface high builds into the Southeast and western Atlantic and local flow shifts to easterly and then southeasterly. Moisture begins to return heading into Friday as another system approaches from the west, with rain chances increasing as a result. Highs Thursday and Friday reach the upper 50s to low 60s and lows range from upper 30s to low 40s. /22

MARINE . Surface high pressure will move north over the Florida tonight into Sunday, bringing a light, more steady southerly flow to area waters. A strong cold front will move east towards the regions Sunday night through Monday, bringing an increase in the onshore flow to more moderate Monday, then moderate to strong Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. The cold front will cross area coastal waters late Monday night through Tuesday morning, bringing a strong to very strong offshore flow. Wind gusts to gale force is likely Tuesday through Tuesday night over unprotected coastal waters and southern Mobile Bay. Wednesday night through Thursday, winds will transition to easterly and ease over protected waters as surface high pressure moves towards and begins to move east over the Southeast. Winds over unprotected waters will transition to a more moderate easterly through the same period. /16

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051-052-261>266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Sunday through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>633-650.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 69 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 55°F 60°F1015.8 hPa (-0.0)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 79 mi78 min Calm 52°F 1015.9 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 82 mi48 min 53°F 58°F1015.7 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andalusia, Andalusia-Opp Municipal Airport, AL17 mi1.9 hrsN 00.25 miFog45°F42°F90%1015.1 hPa
Evergreen, Middleton Field, AL18 mi55 minN 00.25 miFog43°F39°F89%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K79J

Wind History from 79J (wind in knots)
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W8W7NW8W8NW10NW10W9W9W6W6W4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE8E6N3N4NE5E7E8E7E7E6E7E5E6NE4E8E8E8W7--E3N4W4NW9NW9
2 days agoE8E10E10E13E10E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:38 AM CST     1.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:06 PM CST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.81.81.71.51.310.60.3-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.50.811.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:21 AM CST     1.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:46 PM CST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.81.81.71.51.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.60.91.11.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fort Rucker, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.