Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Richton, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:51PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 11:00 AM CST (17:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 5:48AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 1016 Am Cst Wed Feb 24 2021
Rest of today..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest. Waves less than 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday..Winds light becoming south 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves less than 1 foot. Patchy fog.
Friday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog.
Saturday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1016 Am Cst Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis..A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week as high pressure ridges westward across the northern gulf of mexico. Patchy late night and early morning marine fog will impact bays, sounds, and near shore waters through at least Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richton, MS
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location: 31.5, -89     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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FXUS64 KJAN 241543 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 943 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

UPDATE. Updated for morning discussion.

DISCUSSION. Sunny skies prevail across the region this morning as high pressure ridging remains in control. Highs today still look to range from the middle 60s to the middle 70s. Clouds will be increasing this afternoon across the area, with light rain chances returning later this afternoon in the northwest out ahead of an approaching frontal system. No major changes were needed to the current forecast. /27/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a >1020mb high centered over Florida that was ridging back along the Gulf coast states and a cold front stretching southwest across the mid Mississippi valley and back into central Texas. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and cold front will result in a gusty south wind today that will try to increase moisture back into or CWA to support rain development along and ahead of the approaching cold front. The 00Z Wednesday JAN sounding showed a rather dry airmass over our CWA with a PWAT of only 0.28in. Models suggest our PWATs will surge back to near one inch in our west this afternoon to support low chances of light rain before evening. The cold front is expected to enter our northwest most zones early this evening and be near the Natchez Trace by midnight. Despite the increase in cloud cover and rain chances going into this evening, temperatures are expected to top out well above normal again. Highs are expected to range from the upper 60s northwest to the mid 70s southeast. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed near zonal flow aloft across our region. Our flow aloft is expected to remain zonal through tonight leaving the cold front to weaken as it moves through our CWA. The cold front will be aided by a >1030mb high building over our region from the northwest but the cold front will likely not clear our southeast zones prior to sunrise. This will prolong pops through the end of the period across our southern zones and result in a decent temperature gradient across our CWA where morning lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. /22/

A generally warmer (especially south) and wetter (especially north) pattern will prevail into early next week.

Thursday and Friday: The nearby surface front will waver southward on Thursday leading to a slightly cooler day especially farther north in the forecast area (the Pine Belt may be exempt from this as temps may still warm well into the 70s south of the front). As a mid level disturbance tracks from the Southern Plains into the Mid South, showers will increase along and behind the front Thursday night into Friday, with the greatest focus for up to 1-2" possible from the Delta across into the Tennessee Valley. Though coverage is expected to decrease into the afternoon and evening Friday, isolated to scattered showers will remain possible as the front stalls and begins to waver back northward over the area. Sufficient MUCAPE is forecast for some embedded elevated storms during this time frame as well, though lapse rates aren't expected to be steep enough for robust storms.

This Weekend: As the upper jet lifts northward, so will the surface front with strong southerly flow kicking in south of the front over the weekend. As the upper jet amplifies, precip will again increase along and to the north of the front Saturday into Sunday. Current model consensus on the location of this stripe of precip is generally from S Arkansas through N Mississippi, potentially including portions of our Delta region. Around this time, ensemble mean PW are forecast in the 90th+ to 99th+ percentile for this time of year, with a rather strong and nearly boundary-parallel low level jet. This could result in several inches of rain over the same areas, with flooding being a hazard we will need to monitor closely in the coming days. Later shifts may need to begin highlighting this in HWO/graphical products.

For the areas farther south, shower activity will be more isolated to scattered but it will be rather warm. Though deterministic NBM temps seem to be a cool outlier, NBM means are much warmer and forecast temps were nudged upward accordingly. Temps in the 80s are quite possible along the 84 and 98 corridors this weekend.

Early next week: The upper level pattern looks to finally evolve as a mid/upper wave tracks from the Four Corners across the southern CONUS Monday into Tuesday. This should finally nudge the front and precip axis through the area during this time fame. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, it's plausible some stronger storms could occur on Monday. However, confidence in this possibility is very low at this time given a lack of model consensus. /DL/

AVIATION. 12Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions are expected areawide until 21Z. After 21Z MVFR cigs and -RA will start at GLH then develop across the remainder of the area tonight as a cold front drifts south through the area. Gusty south wind to 20kts wl also develop by 17Z and continue this aftn before subsiding by 00Z Thu. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Jackson 74 51 65 50 / 3 38 18 60 Meridian 75 52 68 49 / 0 33 12 47 Vicksburg 73 50 62 49 / 6 39 18 68 Hattiesburg 77 56 74 54 / 0 26 21 29 Natchez 73 54 65 52 / 7 43 24 53 Greenville 67 42 55 43 / 26 41 10 81 Greenwood 70 45 60 44 / 16 46 7 76

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MS . None. LA . None. AR . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 75 mi42 min 60°F 48°F1022.3 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 77 mi42 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 58°F 55°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS18 mi64 minS 710.00 miFair64°F49°F58%1021.2 hPa
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS21 mi67 minVar 510.00 miFair66°F47°F50%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPIB

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW96N7
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N9N4NW7N7N6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5
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Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:41 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:01 PM CST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:07 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:46 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.210.80.60.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.60.80.91.11.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:41 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:23 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:00 AM CST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:08 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:47 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:08 PM CST     1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.10.90.60.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.51.5

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.