Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seminary, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:37PM Monday August 19, 2019 3:15 PM CDT (20:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 9:55AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1000 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely late in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds near 5 knots becoming south in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds near 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1000 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis..A ridge of surface high pressure will extend across the eastern and central gulf coast through the upcoming week. Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher in and near storms. Stronger marine storms will likely contain frequent lightning activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seminary, MS
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location: 31.5, -89.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 191820 aaa
afdjan
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
120 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
Updated for 18z aviation discussion

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
widespread showers & storms are ongoing across most of the area,
minus near gwo & glh. Any stronger storm could bring gusty winds,
heavy downpours & brief ifr drop to flight categories. Storms
will decrease in coverage after 19 23 - 20 00z. Some lower flight
categories, with low ceilings & some patchy to possibly patchy
dense fog, are possible with MVFR-ifr flight categories are
possible, at mei, hbg & pib. Expect these low flight categories
between 20 13-15z. More storms are possible by mid-morning
tomorrow across most of the region. Dc

Discussion
Rest of today:
a hot & humid pattern with scattered convection is expected today.

Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough perturbation
digging through the area, leading to widespread isentropic lift.

This is helping mid-high level clouds to linger through the
morning. With high moisture content of nearly 2+ inch pws, clouds
have continued to develop over a large portion of the region.

Increased highs & hourly trends slightly due to some clearing
before mid-morning but cumulus field & widespread convective
development is now beginning to develop across the area. Main
changes were to adjust the "limited" for heat to be confined to
the arklamiss delta due to the low-level heating uncertainty with
more storms & clouds southeast. This area in the delta should have
enough heating & influence of the eastern periphery of the
subtropical ridge axis to warm up. Continued to hold off on heat
advisory, because even if we flirt or reach it, would be very
short lived & disrupted by convection. In addition, modified
soundings indicate local microburst composite favorable of an
isolated severe storm or two. There is limited flow so organized
convective potential is not expected but can't rule out a stronger
wet microburst storm or so. Will hold off on any graphic at the
moment. This will bring potential for gusty winds in any stronger
storm. Lastly, any storm could bring heavy downpours & maybe very
localized flash flooding potential due to light flow (i.E.

Corfidi vectors ~ 5-10kts). Storms should be moving somewhat so
that should limit potential, other than any areas storms stall or
that any decent rainfall recently. Updates, including the updated
graphic, will be out shortly. Dc
prior discussion below:
today through tonight:
generally speaking, the weather pattern remains hot and humid
today in association with the eastern periphery of a strong
subtropical ridge, but there are some complexities that result in
low confidence concerning the forecast details.

A weak mid level perturbation associated with considerable
mid high level cloudiness over NE ms early this morning is
forecast to move slowly south across the region today, and this
should help enhance diurnal convective precipitation chances per
guidance consensus, especially as we go from late morning into the
early afternoon for central eastern ms. Because of the greater
potential for cloud cover and early convective development,
heating may be disrupted enough to keep the forecast area below
heat advisory threshold. Having said that, locations in the
arklamiss delta region will have more Sun and heating potential,
and this could put them at a greater risk for eventually needing a
heat advisory. Otherwise, expect deep convection to end early
this evening with mostly quiet and very humid conditions
overnight. Ec
Tuesday through Sunday night:
the arklamiss will continue to remain under the eastern periphery
of a strong mid level ridge on Tuesday. Slightly higher heights
across the area may limit convection over the western portions of
the area, but anticipate diurnal storms to develop once again as
pwats will be around 2.0 inches across the area. Another hot day
is on tap, with highs in the low mid 90s. Heat indices will range
from 100 to 105 across much of the area and above 105 across the
delta. A heat advisory may be needed for much of the delta on
Tuesday. The ridge will weaken across the area on Wednesday, and
this combined with plenty of moisture and diurnal heating, will
kick off another round of afternoon and early evening storms.

The ECMWF tries to drag a cold front into the region on Friday as
upper troughing deepens to our north, while the GFS is not as deep
with the trough. Either way it looks like the trend for diurnal
storms will continue through the weekend, as pwats continue to
remain around 2.0 inches. High temperatures will be a little cooler
through the extended period, as the area remains under weak upper
troughing sandwiched in between the sub-tropical ridge to the east
and west. Expect highs to top out in the low 90s each day through
the weekend. 15

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 92 74 95 74 62 11 44 10
meridian 93 73 95 73 50 18 45 17
vicksburg 93 75 95 75 57 11 35 9
hattiesburg 91 72 92 72 77 23 64 20
natchez 92 73 92 74 67 22 48 13
greenville 93 75 94 75 38 9 26 4
greenwood 91 74 94 74 47 17 27 8

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Dc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 82 mi46 min SSE 12 G 16 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS12 mi20 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain89°F78°F70%1015.5 hPa
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS23 mi23 minno data mi91°F73°F57%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPIB

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr34CalmNW3S4S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N6N7NE6NE65SE7
1 day ago3NE4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW43435CalmNW6
2 days agoN5N5N8N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3NE4CalmCalmSE5Calm5

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:53 AM CDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:57 PM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:51 PM CDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.911111111.11.21.31.41.41.41.31.21.110.90.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi
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Waveland
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:01 AM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM CDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:14 PM CDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:11 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:41 PM CDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.90.91110.90.9111.21.31.41.41.41.41.31.110.80.80.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.