Friday, April10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seminary, MS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:23PM Friday April 10, 2020 3:06 AM CDT (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:38PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1028 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am cdt Friday through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north near 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Friday..Northeast winds near 20 knots easing to near 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1028 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis..A cold front south of lake pontchartrain will move through the waters tonight. This front will stall over the northern gulf tomorrow night and Saturday as high pressure briefly builds in from the north. The front will then surge back across the waters Saturday night in advance of a strengthening low pressure system. This low will sweep through the gulf south on Sunday, and a cold front will quickly race through the waters Sunday night in the wake of the low. High pressure will then settle over the waters on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seminary, MS
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location: 31.5, -89.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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FXUS64 KJAN 100633 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 133 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

. AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN OUR REGION .

UPDATE. Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

AVIATION. 06Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions are occurring and expected to continue through the TAF period. Light showers will continue to affect KPIB/KHBG overnight but should diminish through mid-morning. /28/

DISCUSSION.

The forecast is on track and only minor adjustments are necessary as a shield of light to moderate rain and embedded storms tracks across southern portions of the forecast area, mainly along south of the Highway 84 corridor. Will sharpen up the northern edge of the PoP coverage in the near term forecast as it is more certain where measurable rainfall will occur. Otherwise, we continue focus much attention on the potential severe weather outbreak this Sunday. /EC/

Prior discussion below:

Through tomorrow .

Heading into the overnight hours, a cold front will continue to sag further south with any surface based instability confined to the far southern fringes of the CWA. Convection emanating out of Texas and western Louisiana will remain focused along and south of the frontal boundary with mainly showers and stratiform rain to the north. This activity will spread into the ArkLaMiss overnight with rain chances focused mainly along and south of I-20. The northern extent of stratiform rain will be battling low-level dry air advection behind the cold front and will struggle to reach the ground. A few thunderstorms may be possible across the far southern tier of the CWA, but no severe weather is expected. Overnight rain will clear out tomorrow morning with skies becoming mostly sunny across much of the area. It will be a very pleasant day with a much drier and cooler airmass in place. High temperatures will climb into the low 60s north to low 70s south. /TW/

Friday night through Wednesday:

The primary focus remains on the potential for severe thunderstorms this weekend - namely Sunday morning through Sunday evening. An Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms has been included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook text and graphics. Primary hazards will be tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, as well as hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked.

Expect dry weather Friday night into early Saturday as high pressure remains in control. By Saturday afternoon, the high will be moving off to the east, with a warm front moving into the region from the south. As the warm front lifts northward later Saturday into Saturday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop. It currently looks like any severe weather will remain out of our area through Saturday night.

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may be possible in our southwest early Sunday morning, but the greatest chance for severe weather is expected Sunday after daybreak and continuing into the evening hours on Sunday. Model solutions are trending toward a common timing, although slight discrepancies over timing of the shortwave could alter the finer details for threats and timing of storms throughout the day. Strong deep-layer and low- level wind shear will increase through the morning hours as a low- level jet arrives with the warm front and intensifying southwesterly upper- level jet moves into the region. Supercells will be likely with strong speed and directional shear across the warm front able to organize updrafts. Low-level wind profiles suggest strong shear and helicity which could support tornadoes, some strong and long- tracked. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong dynamics mean large hail and damaging wind gusts will also be possible with any severe storms. As the favorable atmosphere spreads northward through the day, expect the severe threat to spread north and east as well. There is some uncertainty as to how far north the best dynamics and instability will spread due to model differences, but even areas north of Interstate 20 have a Slight Risk for severe storms. Storm chances will clear from west to east through the evening as a modified Pacific cold front/dryline feature brings drier westerly flow in advance of the true cold front. Last and certainly not least, increased PWAT values will support locally heavy rainfall with storms, although widespread flash flooding does not currently look likely at this time. As the details come into better focus over the next day or two, expect some changes to threats and timing across the area.

The remainder of the forecast through the middle of next week should be quieter and cooler in the wake of the cold front. A longwave trough will prevail across the central and eastern CONUS, and northern parts of the area may even have a chance for temperatures to dip into the upper 30s later in the week. /NF/27/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Jackson 68 44 74 61 / 2 0 21 91 Meridian 69 42 75 59 / 3 0 10 89 Vicksburg 66 45 74 63 / 2 1 29 91 Hattiesburg 71 45 77 62 / 29 1 19 77 Natchez 67 46 74 63 / 8 1 36 86 Greenville 60 43 69 59 / 0 0 27 95 Greenwood 62 43 71 59 / 0 0 17 95

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MS . None. LA . None. AR . None.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 82 mi54 min NNE 11 G 15 71°F 76°F1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS12 mi70 minNNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F64°F100%1012.7 hPa
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS23 mi73 minESE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F87%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPIB

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5SW543W43NW6N8
G14
N5NE6E4N5N7N5NE5N4N5N7N8N7CalmE3N4N5
1 day agoSW3333CalmCalm3433W6553CalmCalmSW4CalmSW445SW5SW64
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S764SW3653SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4SW3S4SW43

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:37 PM CDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:34 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.40.50.60.811.11.21.31.51.71.9221.91.71.51.20.90.60.30.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi
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Waveland
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:28 PM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:35 PM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.50.60.811.11.21.31.51.71.9221.91.71.41.10.80.50.2-0-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.