Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 3:13 PM

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FXUS64 KJAN 041509 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1009 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some stratus continues to persist this morning but is beginning to dissipate across the area. Skies will become partly cloudy across most of the area this afternoon, but with weak disturbances combining with afternoon heating, expect isolated to scattered storms to develop this afternoon. Expect the storms to remain mostly below severe limits, but a strong storm or two will be possible. Highs this afternoon will climb into the mid 80s for most of the area./15/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA in the wake of a departing shortwave trough. The result was drying aloft with nearly zonal flow across our CWA This has led to less cloud cover and the development of fog across our CWA Patchy dense fog was currently being observed but the areas of dense fog is expected toward morning warranting the continuation of a Dense Fog Advisory for the whole CWA The 00Z JAN sounding had a PWAT near and inch and a half. Early morning surface analysis still had a weak ridge nosing across our CWA from the east. Flow around this ridge will help maintain low level moisture while models show deep moisture increasing back across our CWA today from the west.
Subtle disturbances within the near zonal flow aloft is expected to combine with daytime heating and our moist airmass for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon.
Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, the main focus for severe storms will be to our west again today. This evening the convection will show a distinct diurnal trend and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Models do suggest some convective develop in our toward sunrise as a northern stream shortwave trough tries to drop a weak cold front close to our CWA With a later start to the convection today, temperatures are expected to top out a few degrees above normal. Morning lows Sunday will continue above normal as well. /22/

Sunday: Continued rain and storm chances will be possible Sunday in the (30-50%) range as another short wave will pass through the area.
Expect convection to be isolated to scattered as remnant storm activity in the high plains will be the main factor, as redevelopment will be possible in our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day. Thus a marginal risk for severe storms has been added to the HWO with the main threats being isolated threat for damaging winds and hail.

Monday through Wednesday: Expect above-normal temperatures early in the week, with heat persisting through mid-week. The mesoscale weather pattern shifts to the typical western trough to eastern ridge. As the ridge shifts eastward, southwesterly slow and surface ridging will help a strong surface high build into the ArkLaMiss region. THis will help low-level moisture to flow and keep surface temperatures well above normal. Minor rain and storm chances will hang around through mid-week in the (20-30%) range with there being a better storm environment in the far north that could produce better chances.

Thursday and Friday: Come Thursday the forecast shifts as the potential for severe storms with Friday having higher confidence.
Upper level troughing in the western plains will become negatively tilted and provide a source of multiple disturbances through late week. As a front pushes down into the region it is possible for some strong to severe storms to form along the front. For Friday the storm environment seems more conducive for severe storm production as lapse rates will steepen, increased moisture, shear and lift will all be present. Organized thunderstorms with the main threats being damaging wind and hail are anticipated. This event is possible however confidence isn't very high at this time as there is a good degree of uncertainty this far out in the forecast especially on timing.

Following the cold front, much cooler temps will ensue going into next weekend. /KP/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

IFR/LIFR conditions wl prevail through 13Z. After 13Z conditions wl slowly improve through 16Z. After 16Z VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide through 08Z Sunday. After 08Z Sunday IFR/LIFR conditions wl be psbl in the se with MVFR vsbys psbl elsewhere. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 86 65 84 67 / 40 30 50 40 Meridian 88 64 88 66 / 30 20 40 30 Vicksburg 86 66 82 66 / 40 30 50 40 Hattiesburg 89 66 88 67 / 30 20 30 10 Natchez 86 65 81 66 / 40 20 50 20 Greenville 85 67 81 67 / 30 30 60 50 Greenwood 85 67 84 67 / 30 30 70 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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