Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 3:38 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 040732 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 332 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024


Morning Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging should build by the end of the weekend.

500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. A shortwave trough is moving through central AL early this morning. This mid level system could provide just enough lift for some light shra/patchy light rain early this morning and continue to provide some lift for scattered afternoon convection. The shortwave trough will move very slowly eastward, and could remain right along the coast through early Sunday. Ridging should briefly build across the CWA late Sunday.

At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. A weak frontal boundary will move across the Mid Mississippi River Valley and Ohio Valley on Sunday. The front will sag southward late Sunday, with the boundary laying down from east to west. The boundary should remain north of the CWA Not much denoted in the surface pattern to focus convection, the main forcing mechanisms should be in the mid levels.

The high res models are showing some organization to convection this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA This is likely associated with the trough aloft. Have kept pops mostly isold/sct across much of the CWA, but have kept the likely pops in the east.

A few storms could become strong this afternoon with lightning and gusty winds being the primary hazards. BL winds remain very light (weak steering currents) and PWATs are 1.5"+, so locally heavy rainfall is possible where thunderstorms form. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

PoPs will remain elevated on Monday as a shortwave trough progresses through quasi-zonal midlevel flow across the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected given the presence of a moist airmass characterized by PWATs in the 1.5-1.7" range. While no notable severe threat is expected, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall would be expected in any stronger thunderstorm.

Drier but hotter conditions will make a return by Tuesday into Wednesday as shortwave ridging builds across the area. As such, any isolated/widely scattered convection would be relegated to far north Georgia during these midweek days. Temperatures will respond in kind with upper 80s to low 90s spreading across the area for highs, some 8-12 degrees above seasonal norms.

Flow aloft by Thursday becomes more southwesterly between the trough extending from the Great Lakes and ridging centered across the Gulf.
With the near-stationary surface front extending across the Mid- Mississippi Valley Thursday, disturbances propagating along the frontal zone will serve to increase PoPs, especially across north Georgia. Given plentiful SBCAPE and more favorable bulk shear, will have to monitor the potential for any severe risk associated with potential convective complexes that could affect the area by Thursday and again into Friday as the surface front pushes into the area.

RW

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Atmos remains fairly moist and isold shra will be possible through much of the overnight hours. Some patchy light rain is possible towards 12Z. MVFR cigs also possible towards 12Z, with some potential for IFR cigs for a few hours. May have to add a tempo during later amds. Scat convection possible again this afternoon and left the timing very similar to the previous TAF. Winds will should be either light/vrb or light SE overnight then switch to the SW during the day. IFR possible overnight Sat/early Sun.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 77 63 83 64 / 60 40 40 40 Atlanta 78 65 82 65 / 50 30 40 40 Blairsville 72 60 77 60 / 60 40 40 50 Cartersville 79 63 83 63 / 40 30 40 40 Columbus 85 66 87 66 / 40 20 40 30 Gainesville 76 64 81 64 / 60 30 40 40 Macon 82 65 86 65 / 60 40 40 20 Rome 80 63 84 64 / 40 30 40 50 Peachtree City 81 64 84 64 / 50 30 40 40 Vidalia 80 66 87 67 / 60 40 40 20

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Buffalo River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:17 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     8.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:45 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:27 PM EDT     9.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo River entrance, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Dillard Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:21 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     8.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:49 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     9.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dillard Creek, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Robins AFB, GA,