Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Point, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:21PM Sunday February 28, 2021 10:59 PM EST (03:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 7:57AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 947 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ300 947 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will push offshore Monday night. Low pressure will impact the region Tuesday into Tuesday night before moving east of the region Wednesday. High pressure will prevail for the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Point, SC
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location: 32.29, -80.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 010250 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 950 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push offshore Monday night. Low pressure will impact the region Tuesday into Tuesday night before moving east of the region Wednesday. High pressure will prevail for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Late this evening: No change to the forecast thinking through sunrise. Previous discussion continues below.

Early this evening: Another very warm afternoon as passed and we are left with very mild temperatures within an elevated southwest flow this evening. Overnight, not a whole lot of change to the current pattern. A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest as sunrise approaches but the forecast area will solidly remain in the southwesterly flow within the warm sector through the overnight. In fact, the pressure gradient will steadily tighten through the night and support elevated flow. This will help keep temperatures quite mild for lows, and will also have implications for any fog potential. Overall, the low-level wind field should prevent much, if any, fog from developing. This includes locations along the coast as the marine fog environment is also not very conducive to development. The forecast is dry and lows should fall in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Monday: The brief stint of early summer weather will come to an end Monday as a cold front pushes offshore as Atlantic high pressure slowly gives way. Strong subtropical ridging that has been in place for the past few days will finally begin to retreat as a powerful phased longwave across the central Rockies decouples into two impulses; one piece heading into the Great Lakes with the second heading into north Texas. The warm, moist flow around the anticyclone offshore will continue to advect mid 60 dewpoints and PWATS in excess of 1" into the region, but model cross sections still depict little in the way of deep- layered forcing for ascent ahead of the front with only some weak UVVs noted along the frontal surface itself. This suggests the band of rain associated with the front will gradually weaken and shrink with time as it drops to Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia. Pops will be lowered slightly to 50-70% as a result which matches statistical guidance trends. The system continues to exhibit a split front structure with the surface front outrunning the 850 hPa front by 6-8 hours. Even as the surface front pushes offshore by late afternoon, a risk for showers will persist overnight as the 850 hPa front settles in around the Savannah River by daybreak Tuesday. Chance pops were maintained during this time. Highs will be closely tied to FROPA with clouds and rain likely helping to keep temperatures down a bit even with a very warm start. Highs will range from the upper 70s/near 80, except lower 80s in the KSAV-KLHW-KJES-KBQK corridor with mid 60s at the beaches. Lows will range from the mid 40s across northern Dorchester and Berkeley Counties to the lower 80s across coastal Georgia.

Tuesday: A potent southern stream shortwave will move across the Deep South on Tuesday inducing cyclogenesis across the Gulf of Mexico, which will in-turn redevelop of the Georgia/South Carolina coasts early Wednesday as cold air damming strengthens across the interior. The combination of strong quasi-geostrophic (QG) forcing coupled with a modest 40-45 kt LLJ advecting PWATS 1.25-1.50" in from the southwest should support widespread rains developing from southwest-northeast through the day with rainfall rates peaking Tuesday night as the secondary low redevelops just offshore. Pops 90- 100% look justified and rainfall amounts have been nudged up, especially Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Widespread flooding is not anticipated even with the wet ground conditions, but some minor flooding/ponding of water is likely, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Tides will also have to be watched for the late evening high tide cycle for possible drainage impacts for Downtown Charleston.

The coldest temperature guidance members (NBM and CONSRaw) were favored to construct high temperatures within a strengthening area of cold air damming. Highs will range from the lower 50s inland to around 60 in Darien, GA, but these may prove too warm, especially across the interior where lower dewpoints could intensify diabatic cooling as rain begins to fall. In fact, highs may occur at different times during the day with readings falling in the afternoon as rain spreads in and diabatic cooling takes hold. Lows Tuesday Night will range from the lower 40s well inland to the lower 50s along the coast, but temperatures could rise overnight along the coast if the track of the secondary surface low tracks closer to the coast than what is expected. Finally, breezy conditions will occur across the coastal counties and especially at the beaches where a pinched gradient will reside. Could see gusts 30-35 mph in these areas, highest in open areas and along the beaches. These values should remain below Wind Advisory thresholds, but given the wet ground conditions, a tree or two could be downed by gusty winds.

Wednesday: Low pressure will be found near the middle South Carolina coast at daybreak Wednesday as a powerful southern stream shortwave traverses the area and eventually offshore. Widespread rains will slowly end from west-east during the day, potentially ending by by afternoon for all but the Charleston Tri-County area where some wrap around showers caught in the cyclonic flow around the low could hold a tad longer. Will once again have to watch high tide late Wednesday morning for possible tidal influences on drainage in Downtown Charleston and along other portions of the lower South Carolina coast. Skies will be slow to clear, but some breaks are likely by afternoon. Dry and mostly clear conditions will prevail Wednesday night. Highs will range from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s in the Darien area with lows from the lower 40s inland to the lower 50s at the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Mainly quiet conditions will prevail through much of the extended as high pressure prevails. Weak low pressure could develop off the Southeast U.S. coast Saturday into Sunday, but the details of any potential impacts with a system just brushing the area are difficult to pin down this far out. Generally favored the drier NBM solutions with only some very minor adjustments in a number of parameters. Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal. There will be a increased risk for some degree of frost over the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS and KSAV through 00z Tuesday. Winds overnight should be enough to prevent much (if any) fog development and stratus does not appear to be a significant concern. winds will be gusty Monday morning ahead of an approaching front, and showers could move through the terminals in the late morning and early afternoon hours. However, no ceiling or visibility restrictions are anticipated.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are more likely later Tuesday into Wednesday as a more potent storm system impacts the area. Low-level wind shear could also be a concern Tuesday night into early Wednesday. VFR should then return by Thursday and generally persist through Friday.

MARINE. Tonight: Southwest flow will prevail and should steadily strengthen through the night as the gradient tightens ahead of an upstream cold front. Winds should top out in the 15-20 knot range across most of the waters, though wind gusts to 25 knots will be possible in the Charleston County waters and the outer Georgia waters. Seas will average 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters, though up to 5 feet in the Charleston County waters. In the outer Georgia waters, seas up to 6 feet will be possible, especially out towards the 60 nm line. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Charleston County waters and the outer Georgia waters as a result. Concerning fog, area web cams and satellite imagery show that there is little if any fog across the waters. The Charleston Harbor pilot boat dispatch did report some patchy fog in the Charleston County waters, but that appears to have advected northward. As such, the Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire. We still carry patchy fog for a few more hours, but winds are not expected to be conducive to fog development overnight.

Monday: Southwest winds 15-20 kt will prevail head of a cold front as low-level jetting moves across the coastal waters. Seas could briefly reach 6 ft with 25 kt gusts in the outer portions of the Georgia offshore and Charleston nearshore legs and the combination of winds and seas will necessitate a Small Craft Advisory through the afternoon. Winds will diminish from southwest-northeast during the afternoon the low-level jet moves east of the area and the cold front approaches the waters. FROPA should occur during the evening hours with winds turning northwest to north in its wake. Seas will average 2-4 ft, except 4-6 ft in the Charleston and Georgia offshore waters. Some patchy sea fog could linger across portions of the waters in the morning before dissipating in the afternoon as winds peak ahead of the front.

Tuesday: Pinched gradient conditions will develop as cold air damming strengthening across the interior and low pressure eventually forms offshore overnight. Expect northeast winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt to prevail with seas building 4-6 ft nearshore waters and 5-7 ft offshore waters. Widespread rain will fill in across the waters during the day and persist overnight.

Wednesday through Friday: Expect improving conditions Wednesday as low pressure pulls away from the region. There are no concerns after Wednesday with winds and seas holding below advisory thresholds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal flooding is possible during the Tuesday late morning high tide near Charleston and along the entire southern SC/northern GA coast during the evening high tide. There is even an outside chance of moderate coastal flooding near Charleston during the evening high tide. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible during the evening high tide which could exacerbate any flooding issues.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for AMZ350-374.



NEAR TERM . BSH SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . BSH MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 18 mi59 min SW 7 G 9.9 65°F 57°F1018.9 hPa (-0.4)
41033 21 mi51 min S 14 G 18 63°F 58°F1017.4 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 26 mi74 min SSE 1 67°F 1018 hPa65°F
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 56 mi59 min SW 7 G 8 62°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC7 mi64 minSSW 11 G 177.00 miA Few Clouds68°F66°F94%1018.6 hPa
Beaufort County Airport, SC12 mi64 minSSW 610.00 miFair64°F63°F94%1018.3 hPa
Beaufort, Marine Corps Air Station, SC14 mi63 minS 710.00 miFair69°F65°F87%1018.1 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA24 mi66 minS 1110.00 miFair70°F65°F84%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHXD

Wind History from HXD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Victoria Bluff, South Carolina
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Victoria Bluff
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Sun -- 03:25 AM EST     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:37 AM EST     8.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:47 PM EST     -1.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:01 PM EST     8.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.42-0.1-1.2-1.10.32.557.18.38.57.55.63.20.9-0.7-1.1-0.21.746.27.78.27.7

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:52 AM EST     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:17 PM EST     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:39 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:05 PM EST     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-2.8-2.4-1.4-0.21.11.92.11.50.6-0.4-1.4-2.4-3-2.8-2.1-0.90.51.621.810-1

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