Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Payne Springs, TX

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:05PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:45 PM CDT (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:41PMMoonset 11:11AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Payne Springs, TX
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location: 32.29, -96.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 211919
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
219 pm cdt Wed aug 21 2019

Short term
Through tonight
a tranquil evening and overnight period is in store for north and
central texas, as a stout upper level high remains centered over
the region. A subtle weakness in the mid-level height field,
located over the texas panhandle, may support a few high based
storms over the panhandle and NW oklahoma over the next several
hours. However, none of this activity should penetrate the zone
of subsidence farther east over north central texas. Farther east,
where deep moisture is more plentiful, isolated showers remain
possible over northeast texas, including our far eastern zones,
through sunset. However, believe the odds of anyone actually
getting rain are low enough to preclude mention in the point and
zone forecasts.

The scattered afternoon cumulus cloudiness across much of the area
should dissipate by sunset, leaving mostly clear skies and
relatively warm conditions overnight. Lows just about everywhere
should dip into the upper and middle 70s, except in the core of
dfw urban heat island, where lower 80s will likely hang tough
tonight.

Bradshaw

Long term
Thursday onward
we will have one more day of strong upper-level ridging on
Thursday. This ridge should keep a lid on precipitation chances
for most locations. A weak shortwave trough will move across
kansas and oklahoma late Thursday, which could result in some
isolated showers thunderstorms near the red river (have indicated
slight chance pops here), but otherwise, most of us will remain
rain-free, and hot. That said, the ridge will relax ever so
slightly, so we should stay well below heat advisory criteria,
thus the heat advisory will be allowed to expire this evening.

Friday through Monday will feature north to northwesterly flow
aloft. This flow pattern may allow some of the typical, late-night
convective complexes that prowl the great plains this time of the
year to make a run at our northern counties. In addition, the
ridge will retrograde to the desert southwest, which will reduce
the subsidence over us a bit. This combination will mean our
highest pops through the forecast period, but even then, we're
still looking at 30-50 percent chances for most locations. Most of
us will not see much rain, if any at all, with area-averaged
accumulations across north and central texas expected to remain
light. A few lucky souls may see a half-inch perhaps wherever an
isolated thunderstorm gets going, but the vast majority of us will
see little rain. Put another way, this will certainly not be a
drought-busting rainfall (not even close).

Heading into next week, the ridge will reassert its authority over
texas, bringing more heat. Temperatures will probably be a few
degrees above normal, and we will probably have a few more shots
at 100+ f Monday through Wednesday. Dewpoints will still be in
the mid to upper 60s during the heat of the day, so we will
certainly need to watch for potential heat advisory criteria.

Just beyond the official forecast period, both the GFS and ecmwf
indicate a pattern shift towards the end of next week, but they
have some significant and important disagreements on the details.

The GFS has a highly-amplified upper-level trough deepening over
the interior conus. This trough amplification would act to push a
cold front south through our entire county warning area, with
below normal temperatures (and dewpoints down into the 50s!) in
its wake. This solution would lead to a very pleasant labor day
weekend. The ECMWF on the other hand does show the trough
amplification, but is not quite as bullish, and in fact, doesn't
have much in the way of a surface cold front. It does however show
some increased rainfall potential, which could perhaps offer some
relief from the heat, but it'd still be pretty humid. While the
rain would be welcomed, the gfs's milder and drier solution is
probably the one most are "rooting" for. The simple truth is, this
is still over a week out, and the details for any possible cold
front or rain chances are still very fuzzy. For what it's worth,
cpc continues to advertise increased chances of below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation during the period from
august 28 to september 3, and in fact, they have bumped up their
probabilities a bit in the most recent forecast issuance.

The bottom line is, labor day weekend probably won't feature
particularly oppressive heat, and in fact, there's some potential
for it to be quite nice. If the nicer, cooler, drier solutions
don't pan out, fear not, for autumnal equinox is just over a month
away (september 23).

37

Aviation issued 1237 pm cdt Wed aug 21 2019
18z tafs
very benign conditions will persist across the region through
tonight and tomorrow, with no restrictions to visual flight rules. A
subtle upper level trough will remain over western kansas and the
panhandle regions through tonight, serving as a focusing
mechanism for scattered afternoon evening thunderstorms over the
panhandles and NW oklahoma. None of this activity should extend
eastward into north central texas, however, due to a persistent
upper level high anchored over this portion of the state.

Scattered afternoon cumulus cloudiness will develop at all area
taf sites, dissipating after sunset. A light southerly wind flow
will persist through Thursday, ahead of a lee trough in far west
texas.

Bradshaw

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 79 98 79 98 78 0 0 5 10 10
waco 78 98 77 99 77 0 0 0 5 5
paris 75 94 75 94 73 0 0 20 30 20
denton 78 98 78 97 77 0 0 10 20 20
mckinney 77 97 77 97 76 0 0 10 20 20
dallas 80 99 80 99 79 0 0 5 10 10
terrell 77 98 77 99 77 0 0 5 10 10
corsicana 76 98 75 96 75 0 0 0 5 5
temple 76 98 75 97 76 5 0 0 5 5
mineral wells 75 98 75 98 74 0 0 5 20 10

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory until 8 pm cdt this evening for txz092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-159>162-174-175.

37 66


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corsicana, Campbell Field-Corsicana Municipal Airport, TX24 mi53 minS 8 G 1610.00 miFair96°F70°F43%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCRS

Wind History from CRS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE8SE8E6SE6S7S6SE6SE6SE6S6S7S7S7S6S6S7S7SW9SW76SE10
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1 day agoSE6S9S7E7E6E5E5E5S9S7S6S5S5S7S5S5S4SW9SW6SW4S5SE8SE9SE7
2 days agoS11S10SE11SE12S6SE5SE5S8S8S8S8S8S8S7S5S7S8S8SW11SW9S10
G21
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.