Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Blanchard, LA

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:05PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 8:52 PM CDT (01:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:22AMMoonset 7:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blanchard, LA
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Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 120110 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 810 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

UPDATE. Conditions have improved considerably across the I-30 corridor as upper-level disturbance pushes east of these areas and surface high pressure becomes better established. Thus, went ahead and removed portions of northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas from the Flash Flood Watch. However, left the remainder of the watch intact due to indications from some of the high res models and current radar imagery that showers and thunderstorms may redevelop late this evening mainly along and south of I-20.

Severe threat has diminished across portions of deep east Texas. Therefore, went ahead and cancelled Severe Thunderstorms Watch 164.

Otherwise, made a few tweaks to align with ongoing pop and weather trends. Updates have been sent out. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 634 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

AVIATION . An unsettled weather pattern to persist through at least 12/06Z across mainly MLU/ELD terminal sites as convection shifts east across the region. Conditions to gradually improve overnight as precipitation diminishes from the west. However, IFR/LIFR ceilings expected by 12/06Z, persisting through 12/20Z, before gradually improving to VFR. Otherwise, winds to become northeast at near 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts on Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 345 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

SHORT TERM . /Tonight through Wednesday Night/

An MCS continues to march E into SW AR/E TX attm, with a warm front now having mixed NW into portions of Deep E TX as of 20Z. This has resulted in some sfc based instability mixing N into this area, with SBCapes of 500-1500 J/Kg. Meanwhile, a weak sfc low has developed along the bndry near CLL, with this feature lifting NE into Deep E TX this evening, which may result in a slightly Nwd advance of this more unstable air through early evening before the ongoing convection reinforces the bndry back to the SSE later tonight. Thus, a svr threat can't be ruled out through early evening, with a last second coordination call just completed with SPC on the issuance of SVR Watch #164 for Deep E TX, valid through 02Z.

The threat for locally heavy rainfall continues for much of the region this evening, although the progressive nature of the ongoing convection will help to limit the more significant rainfall totals similar to what has been observed the last couple of days. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is expected, with the heaviest rain expected to diminish across E TX/N LA, although this will target the already saturated grounds across E TX/N LA, where widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches has fallen, with pockets of 4-7+ inch totals since Sunday based on gauge observations. No changes were made to the existing Flash Flood Watch, with the watch cancellation scheduled for 12Z Wednesday. However, periods of -RA will likely continue after the Watch expiration, but rainfall rates should not yield any additional flooding.

Dry air entrainment is expected to surge ESE ahead of the upper trough exiting the Rockies into the Cntrl Plains, which should result in a gradual decrease in convection (and associated rain rates) this evening and overnight. Should still hold on to some lingering elevated convection mainly S of I-20 Wednesday morning, where chance pops were maintained, before tapering off during the afternoon. Low stratus and stratocu will linger over the region for much of the day though, and thus have lowered the NBM max temps Wednesday, with the 12Z progs suggesting that the cu field may linger through a good portion of the overnight hours Wednesday night, thus limiting the extent of cooling even as sfc ridging builds S into the area in wake of a second shortwave trough that will amplify late and thus finally begin to clear the lingering moisture out Thursday. Thus, have bumped up min temps a tad Wednesday night, before a warmup commences Thursday with stronger insolation.

15

LONG TERM . /Thursday through Tuesday/

Thursday morning will start off cool with lower 50s for the most part as a large 1033mb area of high pressure will be anchored in the Great Lakes and extending down toward N Texas. Northeast winds will persist keeping highs in the lower 70s. The surface winds will begin to swing around back from the East and SE direction as the large high pressure area shrinks down to 1029mb in place more or less with temps closer to average for us on Friday.

By Saturday morning the air mass will be 1025mb on the East coast and our return flow will be well underway. We will keep the southerly flow into the region into early next week with a good warming trend to continue into the weekend. Highs will edge into the lower and mid 80s and lows will be in the 60s for the weekend. The weather will keep dry for much of this period as well, but start to edge some rain showers and thunderstorms into E Texas during the morning. Another deep low in the pattern will set up in the desert southwest and send impulses in the SW flow aloft in our direction. We are looking pretty wet for early to midweek with lots more thunderstorms. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SHV 58 66 52 74 / 60 30 10 0 MLU 60 66 53 73 / 100 40 10 0 DEQ 53 65 48 72 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 54 65 50 73 / 30 20 0 0 ELD 55 66 50 73 / 50 30 0 0 TYR 57 64 52 73 / 50 20 0 0 GGG 57 64 52 73 / 50 30 0 0 LFK 64 68 55 75 / 80 50 10 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AR . Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ072-073.

LA . Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022.

OK . None. TX . Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ136>138- 149>153-165>167.



05/15/24


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shreveport, Shreveport Regional Airport, LA13 mi56 minE 95.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist60°F56°F86%1017.7 hPa
Shreveport, Shreveport Downtown Airport, LA14 mi59 minENE 106.00 miRain Fog/Mist59°F58°F96%1018.2 hPa
Marshall, TX17 mi77 minE 10 G 153.00 miOvercast56°F55°F94%1016.9 hPa
Barksdale Air Force Base, LA18 mi56 minENE 97.00 miRain59°F58°F96%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSHV

Wind History from SHV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13E9N13SE12N13
G24
E4NE5N9SE7S7
G31
N7NE5N8NE7E7SE9SE8SE9SE8E6N16
G27
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1 day ago3S7S10SE3SE3S3CalmNE3CalmE4E6NE12NE12NE9NE10NE11E9E7NE10NE13
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E4N9NE8NE12
2 days agoS13
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S13S10S11S11S9S7S9S11SW15
G24
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SW5SW7SW9SW11SW6S12
G17
S10SW4SW9

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