Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Longview, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:16PM Saturday February 27, 2021 3:58 AM CST (09:58 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Longview, TX
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location: 32.58, -94.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 270413 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1013 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

AVIATION.

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a stationary front lies along I-20 from KTYR to KSHV to KELD. Current obs IFR for KTXK/KELD and all guidance indicating LIFR will dvlp on rest of cold side soon and warm side before daybreak. L/V winds to N will keep overnight with KLFK to KMLU, S of the front will prevail S5-10KT overnight climbing over the boundary making showers until it lifts out to N as a warm front on Sat with some DZ and -RA 12-15Z ending along with fog. A few isold TS may occur in the aftn as gradient ahead of next impulse brings shra back in from NW early on Sun. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 959 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

UPDATE .

To add patchy fog to the overnight forecast and into mid morning.

SHORT TERM .

Cloudy and cool in the north with mostly lower 50s and a tight T/Td spread, giving way to light fog in many locales at 10pm. Half mile now in Idabel is the worse so far with quarter mile in the past. The cool air will hang in place and with temps easing down toward daybreak, thus it is a given that the fog will grow thicker. Perhaps even requiring an advisory in the predawn to daybreak hours.

So expect some fog, but any rainfall which is a good chance over top of this frontal boundary, that would help mix the air a bit and could hold visibilites above criteria, so we will defer for another few hours at least if possible. The HRRR does show enhancement in the coverage of light showers during the next 6-12 hours as this boundary lifts to our N during midday on Saturday. This could push the mercury toward 65 or so for even DeQueen which will scour last in the valley. Highs near 80 in our southern tier are reasonable considering we are still near 70 down there now with the best shot at some free vitamin D via the sun. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 335 PM CST Fri Feb 26 2021/

SHORT TERM . /Tonight through Saturday Night/

Across the CONUS, a shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies continues to dive ESE towards the Central Plains. Ahead of the trough, most of the country remains in southwest flow aloft, including our region. Last night's shortwave that produced heavy rain and severe hail across the northern half of the region, continues to push eastward into the SE CONUS, with some lingering shower activity between the I-20 and I-30 corridor in wake of the system near a theta-e ridge. At the same time, the frontal boundary that moved through the region a couple days ago continues to slowly lift northward as a warm front. Its currently located along a line from near Rusk Texas to Mansfield Louisiana to near Monroe Louisiana. In wake of this boundary, clouds have thinned out and warm air advection has allowed temps to climb into the mid to upper 70s. North of the boundary, a broad stratus deck remains across the region, with some fog just north of the advancing boundary. Temps in this region have remained steady in the low to mid 50s.

Not expecting much change for the remainder of the afternoon as short-term progs only advance the warm front a little to the north through the overnight period. However, showers look to continue near the theta-e boundary along with some possible isolated shower/thunderstorm development along the warm front. Expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s south of the front, with mid 40s to low 50s across the remainder of the region.

By Saturday, the shortwave in the northern Rockies will kick out into the Central Plains with another strengthening upper trough on its heels diving southward into the Great Basin Region. In response, southerly winds across the south-central CONUS will increase, and the warm front will start to advance northward during the day. Impulses will move across the region along the flow, providing enough lift for precip to develop. The best chance for convection will likely be north of the I-20 corridor near the advancing frontal boundary. Expect much warmer temperatures, as highs in wake of the front will climb into the 70s to near 80 degrees in some locations. /20/

LONG TERM . /Sunday through Friday/

Longwave troughing will dive SE through the Great Basin and into the Desert SW Sunday, before eventually closing off Sunday night over Srn NM. This troughing pattern will maintain deep SW flow over the region late this weekend through at least the first half of the new work week, and thus the elevated subtropical moisture feed will continue from Cntrl TX through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. At the sfc, a shallow cold front remains progged to drift SE into the region by midday Sunday/Sunday afternoon, with PVA embedded in the dirty SW flow contributing to an increase in convection development along/ahead of the front along a SW to NE oriented theta- e axis ahead of the front. Have maintained consistency with t he previous forecast with pops increasing to categorical Sunday afternoon across much of NE TX/SW AR/NW LA, but did taper pops back a bit across the Srn zones which will be farther removed from the axis of greater large scale ascent and near and just ahead of the front. With the deep lyr flow fairly unidirectional along the frontal sfc, convergence isn't progged to be particularly deep, even as SBCapes rise to near 1000 J/Kg across the warm sector ahead of the front. Lapse rates aloft are not impressive either, but rather am expecting convection to remain along and behind the front, with the potential for additional heavy rains to fall across the already saturated areas of NE TX/SW AR Sunday afternoon/evening, before eventually spreading SE into the Lower E TX/N LA/SCntrl AR from the late afternoon through the overnight hours. Attm, minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas is possible across NE TX/SW AR where widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5-3.00+ inches fell since Thursday afternoon/evening, although areas to the S should be able to take the rainfall. Very warm/humid conditions are expected Sunday afternoon ahead of the front over Lower E TX/N LA, where max temps were bumped up a couple degrees over the cooler NBM, with the front expected to shift S through the region Sunday night, exiting the area before daybreak Monday.

The post-frontal rains will continue over much of the area Monday as elevated isentropic ascent in the SW flow persists. However, the aforementioned closed low over the Desert SW remains progged to slowly shift E into the Srn Plains through Monday night, although considerable timing discrepancies still exist with the slow ECMWF/Canadian slower than the more progressive GFS entering the Red River Valley Monday afternoon, with the latter two progs about 9-12 hrs slower. Prefer the slower more consistent solutions, with likely pops maintained over much of the area Monday night, before dry slotting undercutting the opening trough tapering the SHRA off from W to E Tuesday, while drier low level air advects S ahead of sfc ridging from the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Temps should return back to near seasonal norms by Wednesday with increased insolation, with the outlier GFS still suggesting another developing closed low entering the TX/OK panhandles Thursday, nearly 24 hrs earlier than the ECMWF/Canadian. The NBM continues to trend closer to the GFS, with slight chance pops over much of the area Wednesday night through Friday, but did delay the reintroduction of pops a bit until Wednesday night, but confidence remains low with this solution as we round out the work week. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SHV 55 75 65 75 / 30 40 20 80 MLU 60 76 67 77 / 40 50 20 50 DEQ 46 65 57 68 / 20 80 70 80 TXK 51 68 62 70 / 30 60 50 80 ELD 51 70 61 74 / 50 50 40 80 TYR 54 73 64 73 / 20 60 20 80 GGG 54 73 64 75 / 30 50 20 80 LFK 62 78 65 77 / 20 30 10 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AR . None. LA . None. OK . None. TX . None.

24/20/15


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Longview - East Texas Regional Airport, TX14 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F51°F90%1014.4 hPa
Gilmer, Fox Stephens Field - Gilmer Municipal Airport, TX16 mi63 minSE 35.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F96%1014.6 hPa
Marshall, TX21 mi83 minN 03.00 miOvercast53°F51°F94%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGGG

Wind History from GGG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E12
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E3NE3E4E4SE3SE6SE4SE5S3S3W4NW5N3CalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3Calm
1 day ago3NE5NE4NE4NE4NE8NE9E11E6E6NE6NE5N7NE7NE5NW13
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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