Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kiawah Island, SC

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Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday August 25, 2019 11:18 AM EDT (15:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1035 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Rest of today..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 85 degrees.
AMZ300 1035 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail inland, while a stationary front lingers south and east of the area early this week. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to pass well off the southeast coast. A cold front will impact the region later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kiawah Island, SC
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location: 32.59, -80.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 251445
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1045 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail inland, while a stationary front
lingers south and east of the area early this week. Meanwhile,
low pressure is expected to pass well off the southeast coast.

A cold front will impact the region later in the week.

Near term through tonight
Morning update: temperatures and dew points were running
several degrees lower than forecasted across most of the area.

This is probably due to the front being further to our south. We
plugged in the observations and have temperatures slower to warm
this afternoon. Much will depend on how quickly or slowly the
clouds dissipate, allowing the strength of the late august sun
to warm the temperatures. We also trended the dew points lower
through tonight.

Previous discussions...

for the early morning update we trimmed back the chance of
showers over land to nothing higher than 20% for this afternoon,
mainly near the altamaha river and maybe northern charleston
county. Since there are such low ceilings this morning, there
could be a few sprinkles in spots. Although the most recent rap
and hrrr do show temps a bit higher than our latest forecast,
since temps are starting out a bit cooler than those models are
showing, we have maintained our MAX temps forecast as
previously, which will be hint of autumn with values a good 3-6f
below normal. Meanwhile, recent satellite images do show deeper
convection developing in association with the trough over the
atlantic off to the southeast of the forecast zones. This could
be start of better organization to that feature that is still
anticipated to develop into a tropical or sub-tropical
depression.

Today: the cold front will push south of the altamaha river
early this morning, as a strong 1030 mb high in maine wedges
into the southeast, and eventually pushes the front to near the
florida-georgia border during the daylight hours. This is rather
unusual for late august, as a high pressure wedge is more
common in the cooler months of the year across our area.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure that has had a difficult
time in getting organized and is situated off the east coast of
florida, will eventually become a closed and tropical-like low
as it lifts northeast and reaches a position several hundred
miles offshore of the northeast florida and southeast coast by
nightfall.

The forecast problem of the day is regarding MAX temps, since
considerable cloudiness will dominate given abundant moisture
trapped underneath a low level inversion. This will curtail the
amount of insolation throughout the day, suggesting that it'll
be noticeably "cooler" than the past 3-4 weeks. But since it is
still summer, and any breaks of sunshine or brightening of the
skies could easily boost temps quickly, we stayed close to the
rap and hrrr guidance which has highs of 80-84f.

There isn't much prospects for rainfall to occur, but we do have
slight chance pop's over the coastal corridor where there is
enough low level moisture convergence, and also south of i-16 in
georgia where the highest low level theta-e air is found.

Tonight: the tropical low well off the southeast region continues
to trek slowly northeast and parallel to the coast, steered by
the stationary front over the atlantic. As this occurs it causes
the inland wedge to become reinforced, which leads to a rather
comfortable night for late august. Lows will make it down into
the upper 60s and lower 70s most places. Any lingering isolated
diurnal convection will end in the evening, although a few
coastal showers could persist until after midnight as some
moisture wrapping around the offshore low advects toward the
coast.

Short term Monday through Wednesday
A stalled front will be positioned to the east and south on Monday,
which will keep a tropical low well offshore as it tracks up the
southeast coast. Meanwhile, surface high pressure axis will extend
down from the north inland. Models continue to focus precip across
far southeast georgia, and that is where highest pops reside. Areas
north of the savannah river should see a dry day. It will be the
coolest day of the set, with highs topping out a few degrees below
normal, mainly in the mid 80s. Lows Monday night are forecast to
range from the upper 60s near 70 in the northwest tier to low mid
70s south.

The wedge-like pattern will erode on Tuesday as the stalled front
attempts to lift back north. Aloft, mid level troughing will swing
into the area. Shortwave energy and 2+ inch pwats will support a
more active day, especially across the southern zones where 60% rain
chances are featured. Temperatures should return to more seasonable
norms.

On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the area from the
west. There are some model differences on timing of the frontal
progression, so confidence isn't as high on convective coverage.

Current pop forecast features 40-50%. Temperatures again near
normal.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
A cold front is expected to pass offshore Wednesday night or
Thursday which will then linger in the vicinity through late week as
high pressure builds in from the west. Models vary in regards to
timing of frontal passage, with the euro the quicker solution. This
makes for a lower confidence rainfall forecast as rain chances will
hinge on frontal position. Overall, went with consensus pops of
around 40% during the daytime hours. Temperatures will be
seasonable.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
In the wake of a cold font, a strong high pressure wedge will
maintain a low level inversion that traps considerable moisture
underneath. MVFR ceilings are forecasted early this afternoon,
followed byVFR ceilings. Our confidence on exactly when this
will happen is no more than moderate, so adjustments could be
required in later forecasts. Also, kchs is positioned between
the wedge of high pressure to the west and a possible developing
low near the gulf stream. This will create a decent pressure
gradient, resulting in occasional gusty NE winds during the day.

Extended aviation outlook: brief flight restrictions will be
possible with showers thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

Marine
Today and tonight: a strong wedge of high pressure will persist
inland, while a trough of low pressure off the florida east
coast today, could finally develop into a tropical or sub-
tropical depression tonight, as it travels northeast around 300
miles off the coast of the south carolina and georgia. A rather
tight pressure gradient between the inland high and the coastal
trough low will lead to NE winds as high as 20-25 kt on the
amz350 waters, and 15-20 kt and gusty elsewhere. Seas will be as
high as 4 or 5 ft throughout. For now we have just one small
craft advisory on the charleston county atlantic waters, but
depending upon the strength of the developing low, we might need
additional advisories on some of the other waters at a later
time.

Monday through Friday: marine conditions will be improving on Monday
as the pressure gradient relaxes as low pressure well offshore lifts
away from the area. Northeast east winds Monday and Tuesday will
gradually veer to a more offshore direction on Wednesday ahead of a
cold front. The front is progged to cross the waters Thursday then
linger in the vicinity through late week. At this time, winds
and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria.

Rip currents: since there still isn't much swell energy that is
expected to reach the beaches today, we have maintained a low
risk. However, with north-northeast breezes as high as 15 or 20
mph, a moderate to strong long shore current will prevail.

Increasing east northeast winds could contribute to an enhanced
risk of rip currents on area beaches early this week,
especially if tropical low pressure intensifies while tracking
well offshore.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated tide levels are expected this week with the approach of the
perigee and new moon, which occurs on Friday. Coastal flooding will
be possible, mainly during the evening high tide cycles, starting
Monday but more likely during the latter half of the week. In
addition, there is the potential for some heavy rain around the
times of high tide which could exacerbate any flooding issues.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for amz350.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 13 mi78 min N 11 G 12 70°F 1018 hPa (+1.5)68°F
CHTS1 16 mi48 min NNW 9.9 G 13 73°F 85°F1018 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 18 mi93 min N 2.9 69°F 1018 hPa68°F
41033 27 mi70 min NE 14 G 19 73°F 85°F1017.4 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi70 min NNE 16 G 23 72°F 84°F1017.5 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 54 mi38 min NNE 19 G 23 78°F 83°F1016.3 hPa74°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi43 minN 88.00 miOvercast72°F66°F83%1018.3 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC23 mi82 minN 810.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJZI

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4CalmE5E5E6E5
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1 day agoW5SE8S8SE8S10S8SE7S7SE5CalmCalm--------CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N5N5N7N6
2 days agoW83S10S10S10S9S9S9S9S6S7S6--S8--S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:27 PM EDT     6.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.74.54.954.63.72.71.60.90.6123.44.75.76.26.15.54.43.22.11.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor, off Fort Sumter, South Carolina Current (expired 1996-12-31)
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Charleston Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:31 PM EDT     1.94 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.41.10.60.1-0.6-1.4-1.9-1.8-1.4-0.70.21.21.91.91.40.80.1-0.8-1.7-2.1-1.9-1.5-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.