Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook Island, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday September 16, 2021 7:18 AM EDT (11:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:09PMMoonset 1:19AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 349 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Today..NE winds 5 kt, becoming E 10 kt this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Sat..N winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 83 degrees.
AMZ300 349 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Weak high pressure will prevail inland while low pressure passes well offshore through late week. High pressure is expected to expand into the region this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook Island, SC
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location: 32.6, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 160758 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 358 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will prevail inland while low pressure passes well offshore through late week. High pressure is expected to expand into the region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Today: A very complex forecast scenario is on tap today. Aloft, a rather baggy mid-level trough associated with the remnants of Nicholas will sit across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure centered well north of the region will attempt to build in across the forecast area, aided by the cyclonic flow around a tropical low situated about 300 miles to the east. The presence of the tropical low offshore will help drive northeast flow across the forecast area and allow for the development of a weak cold-air damming regime. This setup will result in significant forecast challenges regarding the location and coverage of convection as well as temperatures. Overall, the highest rain chances will favor southeast Georgia (and especially coastal areas) in the morning and afternoon. Further to the northeast across southeast South Carolina, it appears the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come this afternoon as the seabreeze develops and starts to progress inland.

Regarding convection, the favored region for the best coverage will be along the southeast Georgia coast, especially along and south of the I-16 corridor. This area will sit on the periphery of the weak CAD regime and will be where the best low-level convergence will reside. This convergence zone will be situated within an airmass with precipitable water values in the 2-2.25" range. So the ingredients for heavy rainfall producing showers and thunderstorms is certainly present. Model guidance also bears this out. The HRRR has consistently shown a heavy rainfall signal in this zone, and this is further supported by the HREF which shows impressive mean rainfall totals of 1.5-3 inches across an area that stretches from around Hinesville to Savannah and Bluffton. The forecast follows this scenario pretty closely with a general 1-2 inches along and south of I-16, with 2-3 inches centered across Chatham County and western Beaufort County. Rainfall is expected to be intense, so the potential will be there for at least minor flooding especially in and around the Savannah metro area. At this time, we don't anticipate that rainfall will be supportive of flash flooding or a Flash Flood Watch, but this will need to be monitored.

Temperatures will very challenging and extremely difficult to portray accurately. The presence of plentiful cloud cover, rainfall, and the cooler northeast flow within the developing CAD regime will keep highs down well below normal for most areas. In fact, many inland locations will likely not get out of the 70s. Across the Charleston Tri-County region, temperatures will have a longer window to warm thanks to convection holding off until the mid to late afternoon. In this area, mid 80s will be common, with upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere.

Tonight: It's difficult to know what the radar will look like by the evening hours, but current thinking is that we will still see activity centered down along the Georgia coast. This activity is then expected to move off the coast and pass eastward through the overnight. Still can't rule out an isolated to scattered shower just about anywhere overnight, but the expectation is that all the significant rainfall will end by the evening hours. Otherwise, it should still feel like summer with lows only falling into the low 70s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Surface high pressure will sit inland as low pressure in the Atlantic moves further away from the area. Moisture associated with troughing to the west will shift into the region and then linger. PWATs will be elevated for much of the weekend and isolated to scattered showers will be possible. Although, SE GA will likely see more rain than SE SC each day. Most of the precipitation activity should be during the afternoon/evening hours across land areas. Over the waters, showers could develop and persist through the overnight. With limited instability, only expect to see isolated thunderstorms at best. Therefore, the severe weather threat is low. Outside of any precip, there will be a chance for fog and low stratus in the mornings but have left out any mention in the forecast for now. Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Even with high pressure gradually building into the region, moisture will remain elevated as there are some hints of a coastal trough developing across the area. Shortwave energy and decent PWATs will keep isolated to scattered showers in the forecast through mid-week. Most precip should be in the afternoon/evenings over land areas while the coastal waters could see showers overnight. Also, decent instability will support isolated thunderstorms each day as well. Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. At KCHS and KJZI: Shower activity should remain west of the terminals through the morning. The main forecast concern during this time will be the potential for MVFR ceilings around and just after sunrise. Current thinking is that chances are better at KCHS and we have a TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings from 11-14z. It will likely be close at KJZI and amendments could be needed. The best chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be in the late afternoon with the seabreeze. For now we only carry a VCSH at KCHS and no mention at KJZI. Confidence in this scenario isn't particularly high though, and adjustments to timing and coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms will be likely.

At KSAV: It looks to be an active period with multiple rounds of showers and possibly thunderstorms. The first round is anticipated roughly in the 13-17z time period. Rainfall could be heavy, and IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely. After this round, another round could develop in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Confidence in the timing and occurrence of this round is lower, could it could occur roughly from 21z through 00z. Similar impacts will be possible, including IFR ceilings and visibilities.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible in early morning fog/stratus late week and afternoon/evening showers each day.

MARINE. Today through tonight: A developing area of low pressure will stay east of the local waters as it lifts northward toward the vicinity of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Northeasterly to easterly flow will prevail into the evening, with speeds less than 15 knots. Overnight, winds will diminish to around 5 knots. Seas will mostly be 2-3 feet today, perhaps as high as 4 feet in the outer Georgia waters. Overnight, seas in the 2-4 ft range will be more common across all waters.

Friday through Tuesday: Weak high pressure will persist inland as low pressure in Atlantic moves away from the region this weekend. Easterly winds at 5 to 10 knots will generally prevail through the weekend. Then early next week, high pressure will build into the region and a coastal trough could develop, enhancing the pressure gradient. Therefore, could see an uptick in winds and seas.

Rip Currents: As tropical low pressure tracks offshore, resulting swell could produce an elevated risk of rip currents late week into this weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide could approach 7 ft MLLW in Charleston Harbor with the late afternoon (~5:30 pm) high tide. Astronomical tide levels are on the rise as we approach the upcoming full moon and peak astronomical tide is 6.27 ft MLLW with the late afternoon high tide. Weak northeast to east flow will persist through the time of high tide, which will keep tidal departures elevated. As of ~400 am, the tidal departure is almost 0.70 ft and this should persist through the afternoon high tide. With that in mind, the peak tide will likely come very close to the minor flood category and a Coastal Flood Advisory could be needed.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . BSH SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . BSH MARINE . BSH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 14 mi78 min NE 8 G 8.9 78°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.0)
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 17 mi93 min N 1 74°F 1015 hPa74°F
CHTS1 17 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 6 77°F 83°F1015.8 hPa
41033 27 mi70 min E 12 G 19 80°F 83°F1014.5 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 30 mi70 min ENE 7.8 G 12 80°F 81°F1014.7 hPa
41065 30 mi30 min 81°F2 ft
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 55 mi28 min NE 9.7 G 12 80°F 82°F3 ft1015.2 hPa73°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC10 mi23 minN 010.00 mi75°F75°F100%1015.6 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC22 mi22 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F72°F96%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJZI

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE5SE8SE6
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SE10SE9SE8SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N4
1 day agoNW3N3N4N3CalmE7SE5SE6S4SE5SE5SE4CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4N5N4N8N7E6E10E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Kiawah River Bridge, South Carolina
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Kiawah River Bridge
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Thu -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 AM EDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 PM EDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.43.54.55.25.454.231.80.90.6123.44.75.86.66.76.153.62.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor, off Fort Sumter, South Carolina Current (expired 1996-12-31)
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Charleston Harbor
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Thu -- 02:16 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:46 PM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:31 PM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.11.41.310.4-0.6-1.5-2-2.1-1.7-0.90.31.422.11.91.30.2-1-1.9-2.4-2.4-1.9

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