Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estill, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:24PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:30 AM EST (09:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of dense fog after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ300 312 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Atlantic high pressure will build across the region today and will prevail through the rest of the weekend. A cold front will then move through Monday which will likely be followed closely by a storm system into mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estill, SC
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location: 32.77, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 270913 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 413 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Atlantic high pressure will build across the region today and will prevail through the rest of the weekend. A cold front will then move through Monday which will likely be followed closely by a storm system into mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 4 AM: Near term guidance shows the center of a 590 dm H5 ridge will remain centered over Cuba, with rising heights across the Southeast U.S. At the sfc, high pressure should remain over the western Atlantic as a broad trough remains over the Coastal Plain. This pattern is expected to support return flow across the CWA through the day, resulting in rising llvl thicknesses. High resolution guidance, suggests that a sea breeze will push inland late this afternoon, especially along the SC coast. The combination of strong insolation, very mild llvl thicknesses, and late onset of the sea breeze should support high temperatures around 15 degrees above normal. Highs forecast to range from the mid 80s across SE GA to the low 80s across the SC Lowcountry. See Climate section below for record high temperatures for each climate site. Forecast soundings indicate a strong inversion between H850-750, with a weaker inversion around H925. The stable thermal profile should support a dry forecast.

Tonight: The CWA will remain between sfc high pressure over the Atlantic and a broad sfc trough over the Fall Line of SC/GA. This pattern should support light south winds across the forecast area through the night. Sfc dewpoints are forecast to warm well into the 60 across the CWA. The sfc dewpoints may exceed the temperature of the nearshore waters by 2 to 5 degrees. Forecast soundings indicate that a significant inversion will remain between H950-900 across the area. Conditions below the inversion are expected to become saturated around midnight, deepening through the rest of tonight. Sfc condensation pressure deficits lower to around zero this evening, spreading inland through the night. Fog and low ceiling will become widespread tonight, with dense fog expected near the coast. Low temperatures in the low 60s will be common.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Moderate to high confidence through Monday. Decent model agreement that high pressure will prevail Sunday before starting to weaken Sunday night as a cold front approaches. Slightly less confidence starting Monday, mainly regarding temperatures and rain chances, as the front pushes through. There remains some uncertainty regarding how warm it gets Monday ahead of the front and then how much rain chances lower Monday night as there could be some leftover moisture and shortwave energy to keep showers going, at least in GA. Rain amounts through the period should only be about a quarter of an inch at most. Instability still looks to remain very limited so the risk we continue to leave out any mention of thunderstorms. By Tuesday a much cooler airmass should move into the area with high pressure builds to the north. The main forecast question is how much moisture and upper forcing are still around to keep the showers going. At this time highest it is more likely that areas near and north of Charleston will stay dry with the best chance of showers farther south near the Altamaha River in GA.

The other forecast issue will be sea fog which will likely develop over the cool Atlantic waters and move onshore into Monday until the cold front passes. This could lead to reduced visibilities enough to warrant Dense Fog Advisories.

We continue to lean toward the warmer model guidance based on recent trends and the abnormally warm pattern which is typically not handled well by MOS guidance. Still think record highs are possible Sun (mainly at KCHS/KSAV) and although lows Sunday night could be near records, temperatures later in the day should cool enough to prevent daily record high mins.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low confidence this period due to lower model agreement but we leaned toward the wetter 00Z ECMWF/WPC guidance which have the highest rain chances through Wednesday with drier high pressure building in thereafter. Another storm system could impact the area late in the week but there is little agreement on timing/impacts. At this time confidence is too low to mention any thunder given the limited instability expected but if there are any storms the best chances should be on Wednesday.

Temperatures will likely be near to above normal through at least Thursday night before possibly dropping below normal late week.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Terminals should remain east of CAD centered over the Foothills and portions of the Piedmont. Light winds and periods of clear sky may yield a period of pre-dawn ground fog at KCHS this morning, highlighted with a TEMPO. Winds should favor SW direction today, shifting to from the S this evening. The challenge this evening will be the timing and placement of fog, possibly sourced from the nearshore waters. I will indicate MVFR fog at both terminals beginning late this evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in late night/early morning fog and stratus through Sunday night and due to low clouds/showers on Monday, possibly into Monday night especially at KSAV. Additional restrictions from low clouds and more showers then a good possibility by Tuesday night and into Wednesday as another storm system impacts the area. VFR should then return by Thursday.

MARINE. The primary concern across the marine zones will be the timing and placement of sea fog, developing late today and becoming widespread tonight. Patchy fog is forecast to develop over the GA waters late this afternoon/evening. Sfc dewpoints are forecast to warm well into the 60 across the marine waters tonight. The sfc dewpoints may exceed the temperature of the nearshore waters by 2 to 5 degrees. Forecast soundings indicate that a significant inversion will remain between H950-900 across the area. Conditions below the inversion are expected to become saturated around midnight, deepening through the rest of tonight. Widespread dense fog is expected across the nearshore waters, including the CHS Harbor, tonight. Otherwise, winds today and tonight will remain from the south around 10 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 2-4 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: Moderate to high confidence that conditions will mostly remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday but can't rule out low-end Advisories for at least the offshore waters starting Sunday night. A better chance for more widespread SCA conditions are then expected late Monday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds from the north initially and then a storm system moves through.

Otherwise, sea fog could impact mostly the nearshore waters into Monday or Monday night until a cold front moves through.

CLIMATE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

SATURDAY 2/27 KCHS 84 1962 KSAV 85 2011 1997 KCXM 83 1962

SUNDAY 2/28

KCHS 86 1962 KSAV 86 1962 KCXM 82 1944

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . NED SHORT TERM . RJB LONG TERM . RJB AVIATION . NED/RJB MARINE . NED/RJB CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 43 mi105 min Calm 54°F 1022 hPa53°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 53 mi42 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 55°F1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sylvania, Plantation Airpark, GA22 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F49°F85%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJYL

Wind History from JYL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmNW3CalmNW8NW4W7NW9NW10NW8W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Tulifiny River, I-95 bridge, South Carolina
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Tulifiny River
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 05:26 AM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:20 AM EST     5.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:53 PM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:43 PM EST     5.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.842.81.40.2-0.6-0.50.52.13.85.15.85.74.93.72.30.9-0.2-0.50.11.434.45.2

Tide / Current Tables for North Dawson Landing, Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina
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North Dawson Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 04:05 AM EST     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:30 AM EST     8.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:53 PM EST     8.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.14.11.8-0.2-1.1-0.51.23.55.97.88.88.87.65.63.20.9-0.6-0.70.52.54.86.77.98.3

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.