Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM   Moonset 3:34 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 042235 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 535 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Our wet weekend will reach its peak later tonight with the arrival of an upper level trough. Lift supplied by this disturbance along with a cold front draped across the region will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best coverage of storms and heaviest rainfall is expected across the southwest quarter of the region where lift will be maximized. However, since all areas have seen appreciable rainfall this past week and we expect additional heavy rainfall, we will maintain our Flood Watch for the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. We also anticipate more isolated convection through the evening ahead of the main wave of storms. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with the best chances west of the I-35 corridor.

We will not make any significant changes to the forecast at this time. (see discussion below).

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Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday Afternoon/

Thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon with impacts expected across North and Central Texas. There will be a medium risk for flash flooding, especially south of I-20. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will also become a threat this afternoon through tonight.

The weather system responsible for today/tonight's rain is now across southern NM, continuing to move eastward. Additionally, a nearly stationary front stretches from Central Oklahoma southwestward into the Permian Basin. Several boundaries are also draped across the region -- one just south of the I-20 corridor with another across the Red River. As the main shortwave continues to inch closer to our region, these boundaries are likely to become the focus for thunderstorm development. MLCAPE has gradually been on the rise through the day, with just over 2000 J/kg expected by this afternoon. The greatest instability is likely to be across western Central Texas (west of I-35), where the atmosphere has remain unperturbed from this morning's rain.
It's this area that will have the better chances to experience severe thunderstorms both this afternoon, then again tonight.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the risk for flash flooding has increased, especially across western Central Texas.
Models continue to produce widespread heavy rainfall across the Hill Country, where about half of the area is at risk of picking up at least 5" of rain. Rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour cannot be ruled out, therefore, those across Central Texas should prepare for potential night-time flooding. The flooding threat will migrate eastward through the early morning hours as heavy rain falls over saturated soils. Although rainfall totals are expected to be slightly lower than western Central Texas, saturated soils will quickly lead to runoff. Any heavy rain that falls will quickly lead to flooding across the Brazos Valley.

Another concentrated area of convection appears likely across North Texas, however, confidence in its exact placement remains low. Widespread 1-3" of rain are expected with isolated pockets of 4+ inches of rain possible. Wherever those heavier rain bands develop, the flash flooding threat will rapidly increase.

Precipitation will be shifting eastward through the night, clearing much of our region by sunrise Sunday. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out through the morning as remnant moisture lingers behind the departing complex. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the 70s and 80s.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 322 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/

Any lingering or secondary convection on Sunday will dissipate after sunset with the loss of instability. The return of warm/moist advection aloft, lingering moisture, and light east to southeast surface winds will lead to more drizzle and fog formation overnight. Will indicate some visibility drops of 1 to 4 miles in drizzle/fog but nothing dense at this time. Visibility will improve around midday with boundary layer mixing.

An active weather pattern will remain in place, however, due to the development of a longwave trough across the CONUS, the resulting cyclonic flow aloft, and the presence of a dryline to our west. Isolated thunderstorms may occur both Monday and Tuesday, but a strong capping inversion will keep storm coverage low and most areas rain-free. Hopefully this cap holds, otherwise surface based CAPE of 4000-5000 j/kg along with 40-50 kt of effective shear will cause any storm which develops to become rapidly severe.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as a shortwave crosses the Plains and the dryline advances east into North and Central Texas. Convection developing near the dryline should begin farther east and become more widespread than previous days due to added lift associated with the shortwave. At this time, position of the dryline and convective initiation looks to be somewhere near the I-35 corridor. In addition, a cold front will slowly approach, which may provide an added focus for development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and deep layer shear will again be sufficient for the development of severe storms.

The front will sag south into Central Texas on Thursday, shifting convection and the severe threat south of the I-20 corridor as a second shortwave moves overhead. The front will continue to push slowly south, forcing thunderstorm development farther south into South Central and Southeast Texas on Friday. The upper trough will shift to the eastern third of the CONUS Friday into Saturday, sending a second push of cooler post-frontal air into the region and making for a dry and pleasant start to next weekend. Next Sunday may see a return of clouds and low rain chances in the afternoon and evening, but most locations should experience pleasant weather for Mother's Day.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

The primary concern to aviation will be thunderstorms tonight.
Some of the high resolution guidance does develop a few thunderstorms early this evening but coverage will be too limited to include in this TAF package. The timing of the main round of storms associated with a passing shortwave will still be roughly between 4Z and 11Z with the best window for impact at the TAF sites between 05Z and 9Z. Storms will exit to the east after sunrise, leaving the rest of the day Sunday storm-free.

Ceilings early this evening will hover between low end VFR and high end MVFR. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility will accompany the storms overnight with slowly improving ceilings through the day Sunday.

Wind directions will vary anywhere from east to south tonight through Sunday. Sustained wind speeds will stay below 12 knots, allowing south flow operations to continue.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 78 68 83 72 / 100 60 10 20 20 Waco 66 78 69 82 71 / 100 40 20 20 5 Paris 65 74 66 80 71 / 90 90 20 30 20 Denton 64 78 67 83 71 / 100 60 10 30 20 McKinney 66 77 67 82 71 / 100 80 10 30 20 Dallas 67 79 68 83 72 / 100 60 10 20 10 Terrell 66 77 67 83 71 / 100 70 20 20 5 Corsicana 68 79 68 85 72 / 100 50 20 20 5 Temple 67 79 68 83 72 / 100 40 20 10 5 Mineral Wells 64 78 66 86 71 / 90 20 10 20 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

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