Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Travis Ranch, TX

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:23PM Monday December 16, 2019 5:11 AM CST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 11:14AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Travis Ranch, TX
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location: 32.81, -96.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 160844 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 244 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019

SHORT TERM. /Through Tonight/

The cold front has nearly cleared the forecast area as of 3 AM, with the exception of our far southeastern zones where temperatures and dewpoints are still near 70F. However, the front will move through these locations in the next couple of hours, and they'll join the rest of the CWA in the much colder post- frontal airmass that has settled into North Texas. The frontal inversion layer has become saturated, with isentropic ascent occurring in the 925-850mb layer atop the shallow cold dome. This is a very favorable setup for widespread post-frontal stratus and drizzle, and a mention of drizzle has been expanded across much of the area through this morning. Sufficiently strong lift may be capable of producing legitimate rain showers across some of our eastern and southeastern zones through today with measurable rainfall possible. However, most locations will only experience drizzle with traces of precip, and therefore PoPs have been kept on the low side. The good news is that temperatures are expected to remain above freezing during this time, and the few spots across our northwest that do fall to the freezing mark have very little potential for drizzle to occur simultaneously.

Drier air will begin working into the area later this morning, bringing an end to precipitation potential while skies gradually start to clear from west to east. However, as pressure rises build southward, winds will be on the increase throughout the day, with 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts near 30 mph during the afternoon. This will be rather marginal when considering a Wind Advisory, and there are not plans to issue one at this time. The winds and associated CAA will make for a rather cold start to the week though, with morning wind chills as low as the 20s across North Texas, while temperatures fall or remain nearly steady in Central Texas during the day. In fact, some locations in North Texas may struggle to reach 40F due to CAA and stubborn cloud cover. Winds will decrease a bit later tonight, while temperatures fall to near or below freezing area-wide by Tuesday morning. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s.

-Stalley

LONG TERM. /Tuesday and Beyond/

An elongated and positive-tilt upper trough will remain overhead, while a seasonably cold and dry airmass remains in place at the surface, through the middle of this week. Gusty north winds at the start of the period will begin to weaken Tuesday afternoon, as the axis of a surface ridge propagates southward into West- Central Texas. Cold-air advection will likely have still remained strong enough during the day to offset insolation, keeping Tuesday afternoon high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will become light westerly Tuesday night as the ridge axis moves into South-Central Texas. Winds may become calm at times during the overnight hours, allowing for good radiational cooling, meaning another night of sub-freezing temperatures looks like a safe bet.

Winds will continue to back on Wednesday as the ridge slides eastward into Southeast Texas and Louisiana. The resulting southerly flow should allow temperatures to rebound to near- normal readings by Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 50s expected. The airmass will still remain quite dry, however, allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s Wednesday night, with a few upper 20s possible by daybreak Thursday.

A gradual warming trend will continue on Thursday as southerly winds increase ahead of a shortwave trough ant its attendant lee cyclone. The trough is progged to move steadily eastward across the Southern Plains on Friday. Moisture return should be sufficient for the development of scattered showers across the southeast zones, but the lack of instability will hamper deep convection. Will therefore continue to leave out the mention of thunder at this time. For the rest of the region (north of I-20 and west of I-35) the atmosphere still appears too dry for precipitation.

A weak front will accompany the passage of the upper level shortwave on Friday. Despite the frontal passage, the entrance of an amplified upper ridge will bring temperatures above normal for this time of year. High temperatures in the low 60s can be expected for Saturday, followed by mid and upper 60s Sunday through the first part of next week.

30

AVIATION. /Issued 1132 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019/ /06Z TAF'S/

Post frontal MVFR (with occasional IFR) stratus will prevail at all TAF sites overnight/Monday morning. Ceilings will gradually lift after sunrise, but will not scatter out until Monday afternoon. Dry air advection and increasing north winds will keep visibility generally 6 miles or better through the TAF cycle.

A north wind between 10 and 14 knots along with a few higher gusts overnight will increase on Monday as surface high pressure builds southward out of the Central Plains. Wind speeds during the day Monday will range from 15 to 20 knots with some gusts to 30 knots. The pressure gradient will remain tight through Monday evening so wind speeds will not decrease much after sunset.

79

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 29 50 31 57 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 51 29 51 29 58 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 44 27 47 28 54 / 30 0 0 0 0 Denton 44 27 50 27 56 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 44 28 49 28 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 46 30 50 31 57 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 46 28 50 28 56 / 20 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 29 49 30 57 / 20 0 0 0 0 Temple 53 30 51 29 58 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 46 28 49 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

26/30

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX5 mi17 minNNW 9 G 162.50 miOvercast40°F39°F97%1012.5 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi19 minN 92.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F39°F92%1011.7 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX19 mi19 minN 103.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist41°F37°F86%1012.7 hPa
Lancaster Airport, TX20 mi17 minNNW 103.00 miFog/Mist41°F39°F93%1012.9 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX21 mi97 minNNW 1110.00 miOvercast39°F36°F91%1012.9 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi19 minNNW 10 G 203.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F37°F89%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHQZ

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE8S8S11S13
G16		S10
G22		S11
G18		S10
G18		S10
G17		S8S3N5N5N12
G20		N12
G20		N11
G16		NE7N9N10
G15		N11N7N12N9NW11
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE6E7NE5E5
G12		SE6SE4
G12		NE4NE4NE5NE4NE5NE5CalmE5E4E6E7SE7
2 days agoS7S6S5S6S5W4
G9		--W5W4N5N3N4N5W3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalm
Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.