Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Azle, TX

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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:30PM Thursday March 4, 2021 7:32 PM CST (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Azle, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 050051 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 651 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/

Low level advection has continued through the day ahead of an organizing low pressure system over the Panhandles. This made today on the warm side of mild with temperatures in the 70s across the entire region. A leading mid level shortwave is currently moving through North Texas has created an area of Alto Cu with virga falling out of this cloud deck. Lapse rates in this layer are impressive . around 8-9 deg C/km . but substantial dry air above the cloud deck is halting the vertical development and precip from reaching the ground. With that being said, erratic gusty winds are possible underneath these virga showers. This area will continue east through the evening.

As we move into the overnight hours, a nocturnal LLJ will develop overtop of the region. This will increase the isentropic ascent in the low levels and progressively draw higher moisture air north. For most of the area, this will only result in some patchy stratus in the early morning hours. Areas across far North Texas along the Red River initially, then Northeast Texas after midnight will have the potential to receive warm advection showers and thunderstorms tonight. In regard to temperatures, it will be difficult for most to drop below 50 degrees tomorrow morning due to elevated winds and increased moisture.

The aformentioned surface and upper low pressure systems are progged to move directly overtop of North and Central Texas tomorrow. This will create what seems like erratic wind shifts through the day. Areas south of the surface low will experience a south -> west -> northeast wind shift, while areas north of the surface low will experience a south -> northeast wind shift. Areas northeast of the surface low will also be most likely to receive rain tomorrow. Steep lapse rates aloft will support occasional thunderstorms, but dry air entrainment and unfavorable deep layer shear should prevent severe storms from developing. With that being said, a few strong storm cores may contain small hail near the upper low core where cooler temperatures aloft reside. We have also introduced 10% PoPs and a slight chance of thunderstorms across much of North and Central Texas tomorrow afternoon. We are not overly confident of storms developing, however, there is enough of a signal that an isolated storm is possible.

Temperatures tomorrow will be highly dependent on when the low and fronts move through. In general, we have the highest temperatures along the I-35 corridor in Central Texas with the coolest over Northeast Texas.

Bonnette

LONG TERM. /Issued 333 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ /This Weekend Through The Mid Next Week/

The current vigorous mid level disturbance and associated surface cold front expected tonight and Friday across the Central and Southern Plains will be exiting our Central Texas zones Friday evening. This will result in brisk and cooler weather on Saturday. Outside of a few sprinkles across our eastern Central Texas counties Friday evening, we do not expected significant or impactful weather Friday night. In wake of the cold front, gusty north-northeast winds 10 to 15 mph will result in "feel like" temperatures Saturday morning in the mid to upper 30s north of I-20/30. Otherwise, surface high pressure will slide southeast across the area with plentiful sunshine and resultant insolation. The dry and mostly sunny conditions will help high temperatures warm back into the lower to mid 60s in the afternoon. Southerly winds will return back to the area late Saturday night and increase to between 10 to 15 mph Sunday afternoon for most locales. Highs will warm to between 65 to 70 degrees with the increasing winds speeds and warmer temperatures coinciding with current moderate to severe drought conditions across the area for increasing elevated grass fire concerns in the afternoon for much of North and Central Texas Texas. A mid level disturbance will track across the CWA, but only produce some scattered mid and high clouds thanks to very dry low levels below 700mb.

North and Central Texas will be under the influence of strengthening shortwave ridging aloft in advance of a deepening longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Mass subsidence will maximize the early half of the week as flow aloft goes into a strong southwesterly configuration. The subsequent deepening surface trough along the lee of the Rockies and strong pressure gradient/mixing will result in several windy and warm days with temperatures averaging 15-25 degrees above normal by next Tuesday and Wednesday with no rainfall chances expected this weekend through Tuesday night. Highs Monday and Tuesday well into the 70s will increase to between 75-85 degrees for much of the area by Wednesday. Low PoPs across our northeast counties will return Wednesday and Wednesday night where low level warm advection maximizes moisture flux from the GOM. Most of the area however, will see little rainfall to help improve on our increasing drought conditions and very dry grasses and small vegetation. This will likely result in elevated fire weather conditions for the majority of the area, though we may need to start worrying about a critical fire weather threat evolving by mid week if the current forecast holds true considering cured fuels across the entire region.

Otherwise, our Western CONUS deep longwave trough will begin its migration east toward the Southern Plains and Texas. In addition, medium range ensembles are hinting at an associated cold front sliding into the area late next week. Considering the amount of moisture regeneration occurring for several days both at the surface and aloft, the chances for showers and storms will increase in the 7-10 day period. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with lead mid level disturbances and destabilization both at the surface and aloft in advance of the cold front should lend to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms toward the end of next week. At this time, convection may remain even behind the cold front as strong upper level forcing remains detached to the west of the area. Many details remain unclear and as is usually the case with deep systems across southern latitudes in the far extended forecasts you can assume models and their ensembles may be a day or two too fast with things coming together convection- wise. We still need to be aware we are moving into the early stages of severe weather season and to start planning for the potential of severe weather events across the area. At this time, temperatures will likely remain a good 5-15 degrees above normal the the late extended periods moving into the weekend after next.

05/

AVIATION. /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

VFR with occasionally gusty south winds will continue through the night. An area of stratus is expected to develop over South and Central Texas this evening and move north through the night. We expect prevailing MVFR at Waco beginning around 8-10Z, with patchy MVFR at the D10 terminals beginning around 10-12Z. The winds just above the surface will also increase tonight . creating low-end LLWS over D10/KACT after midnight and ending by 11Z.

A surface low and multiple fronts will impact the D10 terminals tomorrow. This makes the wind forecast particularly difficult since a prevailing wind direction is hard to find near the surface low center and its very possible the western half of D10 will be under north flow while the eastern half will be under south flow for several hours between ~15 to 21Z. The current TAF reflects our best thinking ATTM, however, this will likely change in subsequent TAF issuances. We have higher confidence of a northeast wind shift moving through between 21-22Z. While VFR should prevail by around 15Z, MVFR is expected to return within an hour or so of the northeast wind shift tomorrow afternoon. There is also a ~10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm impacting the D10 and KACT terminals between 19-22Z.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 68 47 63 43 / 10 10 5 0 0 Waco 52 75 49 64 43 / 5 10 5 0 0 Paris 50 59 42 62 39 / 30 30 5 0 0 Denton 49 66 44 63 40 / 10 10 0 0 0 McKinney 50 64 44 63 40 / 10 10 0 0 0 Dallas 52 68 48 64 44 / 10 10 5 0 0 Terrell 50 65 45 62 40 / 10 20 5 0 0 Corsicana 51 70 47 63 42 / 10 10 5 0 0 Temple 50 77 49 65 43 / 0 5 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 48 67 44 63 41 / 0 10 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX11 mi40 minSSE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds69°F40°F35%1012 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX12 mi39 minSSE 910.00 miFair65°F40°F40%1013.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX13 mi39 minSSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F40°F37%1013.3 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi37 minSE 1010.00 miFair65°F41°F41%1013.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX24 mi37 minSSE 11 G 1910.00 miFair66°F42°F41%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNFW

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE11SE6SE5SE5E4SE6S8S7SE7S6S8S6S14S13S13S17
G24
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1 day agoSE4S5CalmCalmS5S3S4S3SE4SE43CalmSE3S7S8S10
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2 days agoNE3NW3W3CalmNW4CalmW3CalmNW4CalmNW4NW4NW4N3Calm43CalmN53NE3CalmE3S4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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