Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Azle, TX

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:24PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:11 AM CST (09:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 4:41AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Azle, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 090535 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1135 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

AVIATION. A 40 kt low level jet will continue to pull Gulf moisture northward tonight, however, all stratus overnight/Monday morning should remain south and east of the TAF sites. High clouds will remain over the entire region overnight and Monday as an approaching upper low draws in Pacific moisture. Ceilings will gradually lower through the day, but remain VFR through 06Z Tuesday.

Breezy southerly winds tonight will veer to the southwest Monday morning ahead of a cold front. The front will move across the Metroplex TAF sites around 20Z and Waco between 21 and 22Z. A north to northwest wind is expected behind the front through Monday night. Wind speeds overnight through Monday evening will range from 12 to 16 knots along with some gusts around 25 knots.

Most of the TAF cycle should be precipitation free, however, some post-frontal light rain will develop at all TAF sites late Monday evening/overnight.

79

LONG TERM. /Issued 313 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/ /Monday Night Onward/

The main focus through the extended portion of the forecast is the chance for some snow to mix with rain on Tuesday morning. Due to warm surface temperatures, little/no accumulations or impacts are expected, thus no winter weather headlines are planned.

Cold advection through the low levels will persist through Monday night following the strong cold frontal passage earlier in the day. Meanwhile, a potent upper trough will be digging through New Mexico and West Texas, overspreading our CWA with vigorous dynamic lift. Strong DCVA coupled with our positioning within the right entrance region of an intensifying upper jet streak will result in broad large-scale ascent through the mid levels. The attendant steeply-sloped frontogenesis towards the colder air will result in a large frontogenetical band of precipitation developing to our west (initially as virga) before it spreads eastward into North Texas while top-down saturation occurs simultaneously. As a result, a fairly widespread cold rainfall should be ongoing by ~3am Tuesday morning.

At the onset of precipitation Monday evening, the column will still be relatively warm. However, over the next several hours, forced ascent will act to cool the mid levels, while CAA and evaporative cooling work simultaneously to send low-level thermal profiles towards their wet bulb temperatures. By early Tuesday morning, these mechanisms should allow the column to cool sufficiently to allow for some snow to begin mixing with rain across parts of North Texas. The majority of model soundings indicate anomalously high Pacific moisture content through the mid and upper levels, which will allow for profiles to be saturated all the way to -20C or -30C, more than sufficient to saturate the dendritic growth zone. The bit of uncertainty that remains is regarding the low-level thermal profiles, particularly in the lowest 1km, where a warm nose of +2C to +4C may still reside through the morning hours. Despite its shallow nature, a warm nose of +4C would likely be enough to melt most snow on its journey to the surface. However, just a degree or two cooler and snow will likely be able to survive the trip. Given trends towards colder solutions in recent model runs, particularly last night's 00z and this morning's 12z suites, there is a greater likelihood that some portions of North Texas will observe a bit of snow on Tuesday morning. In fact, it's worth noting that all 20 GEFS members and all 50(!) EPS members are now producing at least a small amount of snow in some portion of our northwestern CWA during this time period. This has increased confidence such that the mention of a chance of snow has been expanded across North Texas (including parts of the DFW Metroplex) with this forecast issuance.

In the "unlikely but not impossible" category: While I do not have sleet mentioned in the worded forecast, it is possible that a precipitation transition could consist of a brief mix of rain/sleet before snow is observed, but rain and snow should be the predominant 2 precipitation types. Since surface temperatures are expected to be at or above freezing within the forecast area, no mention of freezing rain has been included either, but there is an outside chance that one of our far northwestern zones could briefly dip to 31F or 30F while rain is still falling. Model- derived precipitation types struggle mightily in these types of scenarios with such subtleties in thermal profiles, and they have largely been disregarded in this forecast in lieu of top-down sounding analysis.

The bit of good news with this type of setup is that extremely cold air is difficult to come by at the surface, and most surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing while any snow (or rain for that matter) would fall. This will inhibit accumulations on roadways, especially given the fact that temperatures will have been in the upper 60s and 70s just 12-18 hours previously. Should a complete transition to snowfall occur and persist for a couple of hours at any given location, then some minor accumulations would be possible on surfaces like grass, vehicles, and rooftops. At most, a slick spot on a bridge or two could be a possibility, but overall, impacts from any wintry weather should be little to none.

By midday, much drier air will begin advecting into the low levels, acting to shut down precipitation from northwest to southeast during the day. Clearing will actually occur across North Texas by the afternoon, which should allow temperatures to actually warm into the low or even mid 40s. All precipitation is expected to exit the forecast area by Tuesday evening, with a cold night in store area-wide. Most areas will fall to near or below freezing by Wednesday morning.

The remainder of the extended forecast is on the quiet side, with little rain chances through the day 4-7 time period. Another strong upper trough will sweep through the Southern Plains on Thursday/Friday, but moisture will be completely scoured from our area, keeping all the associated rain chances well to our east. Slightly warmer temperatures (closer to normal) should prevail through the rest of the week with highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s and 40s. Another strong cold front may arrive late next weekend or early next week, but the precipitation potential appears low with that system at this time due to limited moisture recovery.

-Stalley

SHORT TERM. /Issued 1256 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019/ /Today and Tomorrow/

The area remains under a blanket of upper level clouds brought in from a healthy stream of Pacific Moisture. Stout westerly flow overtop of the southern Rockies has induced rather strong pressure falls over the TX/OK Panhandles this morning and will continue to do so through the afternoon. This has tightened the pressure gradient across the region, increasing the wind speeds to between 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph. The winds will gradually veer to become out of the southwest by the late afternoon as the surface low pulls eastward. This will deflect the more sub-tropical air east, however, a noticeably more humid airmass will advect into the region over the next 12 hours. The wind speeds should remain gusty through the early evening hours as the boundary layer struggles to decouple completely.

A prefrontal dryline feature should move through North and Central Texas tomorrow morning, further veering the winds to become out of the west by around noon. A deepening trough over the western CONUS will kick out the parent surface low and drive its attendant cold front south tomorrow afternoon. The current timing of the front looks to be around noon for the Red River counties, around 3 PM for the Metroplex, and around 6/7 PM for Waco/Killeen. Areas across Central Texas can expect a rather warm day tomorrow with compressional warming and dry westerly flow helping to warm temperatures roughly 15-20 degrees above climatology.

Frontal passage will bring a sharp drop in temperatures and gusty winds out of the north. A dry pre frontal boundary layer will prevent the development of precip along/behind the leading edge of the front despite strong forced ascent. This will begin to change as another wave of mid level pacific moisture advects into the area behind the front late tomorrow afternoon. This will allow for widespread mid level cloudiness and virga to develop west of I-35, creating top-down moistening of the column. The virga will gradually moisten the lower levels with measurable precipitation eventually reaching the ground by the early evening hours. This precip is expected to gradually overspread across the entire region overnight. Additional details regarding the evolution of the precipitation tomorrow night and Tuesday can be read in the Long Term portion of the forecast.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 71 37 43 31 / 0 10 90 70 5 Waco 59 81 38 43 29 / 0 5 90 90 10 Paris 57 67 36 42 28 / 0 20 90 70 5 Denton 59 68 35 45 27 / 0 20 80 50 5 McKinney 58 69 35 43 27 / 0 10 90 70 5 Dallas 60 72 37 45 32 / 0 10 90 70 5 Terrell 60 75 37 45 28 / 0 5 90 90 5 Corsicana 60 78 39 42 31 / 0 5 90 90 10 Temple 59 82 40 43 30 / 0 0 80 90 5 Mineral Wells 56 69 33 43 26 / 0 20 90 50 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX12 mi19 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds62°F53°F73%1006.4 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX13 mi19 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast65°F52°F63%1005.9 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi17 minSW 810.00 miFair65°F48°F57%1006.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX24 mi37 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F48°F59%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNFW

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------S9S11S10S14S16
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1 day agoNW7NW9N9N8N10N5------------NW8NW8NW6NW53NE4Calm3S5CalmSE6E4
2 days agoS11S10S10S10S11SW12--------------N18
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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