Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grapevine, TX

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:28PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 6:03 AM CST (12:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:34PMMoonset 9:48AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grapevine, TX
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location: 32.96, -97.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 031125 AAA AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 525 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

. New Short Term, Aviation .

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made with this update. The previous forecast remains on track.

Barnes

Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday Night/

Efficient radiational cooling is taking shape across the region, thanks to dry air, cloud-free skies, and light winds. This will allow temperatures to bottom out in the 30s area-wide near sunrise this morning. Southwest winds will increase later this morning and will result in an elevated threat for grass fires, particularly west of I-35 where relative humidity values will fall below 30%. Though wind speeds are fairly marginal for an elevated fire weather threat, very dry fuels will likely warrant the issuance of an RFD within the next few hours.

Compressional warming and ample sunshine will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. By this evening, dew points will rise into the 40s across most of the area. Higher dew points and wind speeds near 5 to 12 mph will make for a warmer night tonight with low temperatures in the low to mid 40s.

Barnes

LONG TERM. /Issued 321 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/ /Thursday through next Monday/

Other than of a rain/isolated storm potential late Thursday into Friday a majority of the long term features pretty pleasant conditions. Outside of the weekend, above normal warmth will be the main theme temperature wise. With the recent cold spell resulting in more dormant vegetation, an elevated fire weather threat will exist at times through the long term forecast period.

Thursday will be a very nice day with above normal warmth as southerly breezes intensify ahead of our next approaching storm system now spiraling southward along the California coastline. This upper trough will swing eastward and induce a warm air advection regime which will allow for highs in the 70s. Low level moisture advection will remain meager initially, thanks to recent frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico. Enough moisture may shoot northward to result in some patchy low stratus across east Texas during the morning hours on Friday. Mid/upper level moisture will certainly increase, however, as the upper low taps into Central and Eastern Pacific air. The resultant increase in higher level cloud cover should really transpire later in the day and thus mostly sunny skies will prevail. The above normal warmth, coupled with the recent increase in dormant vegetation, and lack of meaningful precipitation west of I-35 will spell an elevated fire weather threat and it's probable that a Grassland Fire danger statement will be needed on Thursday and again on Friday for parts of the area. Slightly greater low level moisture will be drawn northward overnight and we should at least see RH recovery into the 80-100% range.

As noted above, mid-levels will moisten and with the approach of the colder air aloft Thursday night into Friday. 700-500mb lapse rates will steepen to near 7-7.5 C/km supporting a risk for high-based convection. At present time, it looks like the best opportunity for measurable rainfall will be along and north of the U.S HWY 82 corridor late Thursday/early Friday and then again near and east of a St. Jo to D/FW to Centerville line. Extreme Northeast Texas (Bonham to Sulphur Springs) will stand the best chance for rain and storms. Any rain amounts will be quite light, with totals ranging between a few hundredths to one-tenth of an inch. West of the St. Jo - D/FW - Centerville line, there will be a risk for sprinkles, though depending on higher resolution model guidance, the mention of low PoPs and thunder may need to be expanded west. If this materializes, there will be a "dry" or low precipitation thunderstorm potential given the high-based nature of convection. The environment will be strongly sheared and somewhat unstable (per the lapse rates). Given the efficiency in which high-based convection can produce frozen hydrometeors aloft, there will be the risk for graupel/hail. At present time, the risk for severe hail should be very, very isolated given that I don't believe the vigor of updrafts (due to the lack of larger CAPE values) will loft graupel particles long enough such that accretional growth to 1" or greater can occur. However, if the CAPE increases substantially, then we may need to ramp up the message for a severe hail Thursday night into Friday.

By late Friday afternoon, the risk for high-based convection should end as a Pacific front/dryline feature and true cold front sweep through the area. Between the Pacific front/dryline and true cold frontal boundaries, there will be a potential for well above normal warmth west of I-35 and south of I-20. An elevated fire weather threat will certainly exist at some point during the day, however, the RH trend forecast is a little atypical. At present time, the lowest RH values may occur a little earlier in the day as may the high temperature. With the front sweeping southward later in the day, RH may actually trend upward as temperatures fall thanks to CAA. With a lower sun angle in the morning direct solar insolation may have a diminished role on the drying potential. However, given the state of the fuels, it's probable that an RFD will be needed to address the potential for rapidly spreading grassfires given the northwest winds are expected to increase to around 25 mph.

The weekend should feature lighter winds and slightly cooler conditions (though still nice with highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees). The lighter winds and higher humidity should alleviate fire weather concerns some, but freeze cured fuels will still be abundant and thus any outdoor burning should be monitored very closely. Next week we will see well above normal temperatures with warm conditions for daytime highs (upper 70s to near 80 degrees) and balmy overnight lows (60s). We'll see the approach of another potent storm system around mid-week and unlike our previous disturbance, moisture quality will improve, mainly near and east of I-35. At this juncture, 20-40% PoPs appear reasonable late Wednesday into Thursday. West of this area, however, the fire weather threat will likely increase as southwesterly winds near 25 mph, mostly sunny skies and well above normal temperatures may promote additional fire activity.

Bain

AVIATION. /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

VFR will continue across all terminals through the TAF period. Southerly winds will become southwesterly later this morning and will increase to 10 knots. Winds will shift out of the southeast this evening and will remain near 5 to 10 knots through midday tomorrow.

Barnes

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 44 72 52 63 / 0 0 0 5 20 Waco 70 42 72 52 75 / 0 0 0 5 10 Paris 65 39 69 50 55 / 0 0 0 50 40 Denton 70 42 73 51 61 / 0 0 0 10 20 McKinney 68 41 72 50 60 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dallas 70 46 73 52 64 / 0 0 0 10 20 Terrell 68 40 72 51 62 / 0 0 0 10 20 Corsicana 69 43 71 51 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 Temple 69 42 72 52 75 / 0 0 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 73 43 73 50 65 / 0 0 0 5 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX4 mi70 minS 310.00 miFair41°F33°F73%1019.7 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX13 mi2.5 hrsSE 510.00 miFair45°F32°F60%1021 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX13 mi70 minSSW 510.00 miFair43°F32°F65%1020.3 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX14 mi70 minSSE 610.00 miFair47°F32°F56%1020.5 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair34°F31°F89%1020.5 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX17 mi70 minS 410.00 miFair42°F32°F68%1020.3 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX18 mi68 minS 310.00 miFair42°F32°F68%1021.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX20 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair36°F31°F82%1020.5 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX20 mi71 minSSE 410.00 miFair43°F32°F65%1018.8 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi70 minS 510.00 miFair42°F30°F62%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDFW

Wind History from DFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW55N7N43SE4E3E5SE5SE5SE5SE3S5S5S6S6CalmS3
1 day agoN18
G25
N18
G26
N16
G25
E7N9N12N12
G20
N10N11N7NE11
G17
N11NE7NE5SE3SE3S4CalmCalmE4SE3CalmNE3E4
2 days agoS6S9S11S10S13S15S17NW15NW18NW15
G22
N9NW13N10N13N10
G20
N10N8N9N12N15N13
G20
NE8N13N16

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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