Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grapevine, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:30 PM CDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:34AMMoonset 2:56PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grapevine, TX
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location: 32.96, -97.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 140003 AAA AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 703 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ Update: /Through Friday Evening/

I stayed with persistence regarding the very hot weather, highlights, and isolated storms chances across our far northeast counties late tonight and Friday morning. The eastern extent of the very strong upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest states and far Northern Mexico still maintains strong subsidence over the majority of the area. C

CAMs are showing slight variances in the westward extent of any dissipating complex of storms moving south-southeast out of E OK and AR toward the AR-LA-TX moving into daybreak Friday Morning. My confidence with overall storm evolution and associated surface outflow boundaries just isn't high. I have decided to maintain the previous forecast PoPs, as well as temperatures as I see no advantage to adjusting a degree here and there. A consistent message was kept for the evening update.

05/

Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/

Dangerous heat continues to be the highlight of the short term period as an upper ridge remains planted over the area. Morning convection in the northeast has dissipated, but any residual outflow boundary could be a focus for isolated shower/storm development this afternoon, similar to yesterday. Otherwise, temperatures will soar into the upper 90s to 108 with the hottest locales in the west.

Overnight, an upper level disturbance will move along the eastern periphery of the upper high centered to our west. This feature will likely spur another overnight MCS to our northeast. As the complex moves to the southeast during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning, a few showers and storms along its outflow may make their way into our northeast counties. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will generally be northeast of a Gainesville to Canton line. Severe weather is not anticipated, but gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be possible with any storms. Showers and storms will linger through Friday morning, but should come to an end by midday.

High temperatures were bumped up a bit Friday afternoon as southwest flow just above the surface should allow compressional warming to take place. Highs are expected to top out at 105 and above for many locations on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, the Excessive Heat Warning will be extended further east to encompass these areas. With the hottest temperatures of the year set to occur this week, heat safety will be of the utmost importance. Take extra precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses if you plan on spending time outdoors.

With minimum relative humidities near 20-25%, breezy afternoon winds, and hot temperatures, an elevated threat for grassfires will continue through the end of the week.

Barnes

LONG TERM. /Issued 356 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/

/The Weekend through Wednesday/

Dangerous heat is expected to grip North and Central Texas at least through the early portion of the weekend. Actual air temperatures will climb to near or just above 105 degrees with heat index values near 110 in some spots. Fortunately, there will be some relief from the heat as we head into the latter half of the weekend into early next week, but rain chances appear low at this time.

While summertime in Texas is often characterized as being hot, this Friday into the early part of the weekend will be slightly out of the normal. In fact, some sites may flirt with record highs set back in the 1950s! In addition, overnight low temperatures will remain very much elevated with some spots not dipping too far below 80 degrees . especially in the urban areas. Low level flow is expected to be a bit more veered on Friday and Saturday, adding additional warmth to the mid- August sun. While dew points may mix out some, especially for locations west of I-35/near and south of I-20, the actual air temperatures will likely soar into the 105-106 degree range. I went ahead and made some alterations to the current Excessive Heat Warning to expand it in area and time. It may be a little marginal on the eastern fringes, but given the large population centers of the D/FW Metroplex and Waco areas, it seemed prudent to include these areas from an impact standpoint. The Excessive Heat Warning will run through 7 PM Saturday. My confidence on meeting criteria is a little less for the Temple/Killeen areas, but they may need to be added to the mix, especially if strong compressional warming is realized tomorrow and Saturday. All other areas remain in a Heat Advisory through Saturday evening. A few counties may be cleared from the advisory along the Red River Saturday as it's quite possible that flow becomes more northerly (less of a compressional warming component). If the trough/front sides southward through more of North Texas on Saturday, it's quite possible that additional alterations to the advisory/warning will be needed.

Regardless of advisory/warning, individuals across the area need to be sure that they take their heat safety precautions. Avoid strenuous outdoor activities during peak heating, stay hydrated with plenty of water and never leave children/pets unattended in vehicles!

A front should slice through the area on Sunday, but may not clear the entire area. As such, the Heat Advisory may need to be extended in time across Central and parts of East Texas. For now, I'll defer to later shifts. The NAM remains aggressive with developing scattered convection along the front on Sunday afternoon. At this time, the airmass looks a little too hostile for any convection, However, IF convection does develop, there will be a risk for strong/gusty outflow winds.

Early next week will be relatively cooler with a risk for showers and thunderstorms areawide on Monday. It should be noted that PoPs are broadbrushed and only around 20 percent with maybe a slightly greater risk for rain across Central TX along the stalled out frontal boundary. While still hot, it'll actually be slightly below normal for next week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Bain

AVIATION. /NEW/ /00z TAFs/

Challenges: Nothing major with VFR. Minor concerns on veering winds after 12z Friday and isolated TS northeast of D10 airports.

S or SSE winds 10-15 knots will continue past 06z, before slowly veering and diminishing to between 7-10 knots. After 15z, strong surface heating and mixing of veered 925mb 25 knot flow will result in surface winds veering briefly SW around 15 knots through early afternoon, before slowly back S by 00z Saturday.

At this time, I don't not expect isolated TS to impact the 25 mi radius at DAL/DFW airports, as confidence is very low of activity surviving subsidence this far west. That said, the Bonham cornerpost, as well as east bound traffic may see slower arrival/departure rates between 09z-18z Friday.

05/

Previous Discussion: /18Z TAFs/

VFR is expected at all TAF sites through the valid TAF period. Southerly winds near 10-15 knots will prevail. Any morning convection should remain north and northeast of D10 terminals, but may impact Bonham arrivals through midday Friday.

Barnes

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 105 82 105 79 / 5 5 5 5 5 Waco 79 104 80 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 77 98 76 98 75 / 20 20 0 5 5 Denton 81 106 79 104 77 / 5 10 5 10 5 McKinney 81 104 79 104 77 / 10 10 5 5 5 Dallas 82 105 82 105 79 / 5 5 5 5 5 Terrell 78 104 79 104 77 / 10 10 0 5 5 Corsicana 78 102 79 103 79 / 5 5 0 0 5 Temple 77 103 78 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 78 107 78 105 75 / 0 5 5 10 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ100>103- 115>119-129>134-141>145-159.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095-104>107- 120>123-135-146>148-156>158-160>162-174-175.



05/37


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX4 mi37 minSSE 1010.00 miFair94°F66°F41%1009.3 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX13 mi43 minno data13.00 miClear97°F62°F32%1011.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX13 mi37 minSSE 1110.00 miFair96°F63°F34%1008.4 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX14 mi37 minSSE 910.00 miFair97°F64°F35%1009.8 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi37 minSSE 710.00 miFair94°F64°F37%1009.4 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX17 mi37 minSSE 1010.00 miFair94°F62°F35%1009.3 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX18 mi40 minSSE 1010.00 miClear93°F62°F36%1011.2 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX20 mi37 minSE 710.00 miFair95°F64°F37%1009.7 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX20 mi38 minSSE 1110.00 miFair97°F61°F30%1009.1 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi37 minSSE 810.00 mi93°F64°F40%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDFW

Wind History from DFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE10SE9SE9S11S10S14S12S9S9S9S9SW10S8S9S12
G18
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1 day agoSE9SE9S11S12S17
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2 days agoSE8SE10S14
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SW9S11SE9SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.