Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 12:10 AM   Moonset 9:51 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 290628 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 128 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Monday and Tuesday/

Thunderstorms have finally exited our area. A cluster of training storms continues across Southeast Texas--just south our forecast area--so many of our southeasternmost counties will hear plenty of thunder through the pre-dawn hours. While most of this activity will remain to our south, a few storms could clip our southernmost counties before sunrise. In the wake of the wet weekend and the lack of a dry airmass moving through, fog is expected across most of the area this morning. We have a local rule of thumb coined the "shortwave rule" that states when rain falls, there is no cold front or other dry airmass passage, and light winds/clear skies are forecast overnight, fog will occur. Patchy dense fog has already developed just east of the cirrus blow off from the aforementioned storms. Expect the fog and very low stratus bank to expand through the morning and cover most of our area during the Monday morning commute.

We have issued a Dense Fog advisory for much of our forecast area through 9 AM this morning. It is pretty rare for our office to issue a Dense Fog Advisory in late April. In fact, we have only issued 6 Dense Fog Advisories on or after this date since 2006.
Visibility will improve within an couple hours of sunrise, with rapidly improving conditions by the mid to late morning.

Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected this afternoon with highs in the mid 80s. Despite it already feeling muggy, south flow will return tonight and draw warm/moist air north.
Stratus will creep north early Tuesday and should should dissipate in the late morning. Tomorrow's afternoon highs should be a couple degrees higher than today, however the extra moisture will result in heat index values peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s. Most will be dry, but there is a 20% chance of an isolated warm advection shower across the southeast. A dryline will develop well to our west that should initiate thunderstorms late in the day near Childress. There is a less than 10% chance that a storm will be able to continue long enough into the evening to move into our forecast area late Tuesday.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ /Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

LIFR ceilings and visibility are forecast at all TAF terminals this morning. The fog/stratus bank has already engulfed all of Central Texas and will slowly expand through the pre-dawn hours.
The lowest visibility should be in the 1-2 hours straddling sunrise, but there is potential that LIFR visibility develops at the D10 or ACT terminals before 09Z. If this takes place, latent heat warming could improve visibility sooner than the TAFs indicate. Regardless, flying conditions will improve a couple hours after sunrise, with visibility improving first. Low ceilings will likely take a few more hours to lift/scatter, but VFR should prevail at all terminals by 15-17Z. Light winds will continue through the valid TAF period, with prevailing south flow returning in the late afternoon.

Bonnette


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 85 70 85 70 / 0 5 20 30 30 Waco 64 83 69 82 70 / 0 10 10 40 30 Paris 60 83 66 83 67 / 0 5 10 40 30 Denton 63 84 67 84 67 / 0 5 30 30 40 McKinney 62 83 68 83 68 / 0 5 20 30 30 Dallas 64 85 69 85 70 / 0 5 20 30 30 Terrell 62 83 68 83 68 / 0 10 10 40 30 Corsicana 63 85 69 85 70 / 0 10 10 40 30 Temple 64 85 69 82 69 / 0 10 10 40 30 Mineral Wells 62 86 68 84 68 / 0 5 30 30 40

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091>094- 101>105-116>121-130>134-143>145-156>159.

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