Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lewisville, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:15PM Friday August 14, 2020 3:10 AM CDT (08:10 UTC) Moonrise 1:16AMMoonset 3:54PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewisville, TX
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location: 33.08, -96.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 140804 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SHORT TERM. /Issued 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ /Through Friday Night/

Dangerous heat is the main story through the short term forecast, although elevated fire danger and some low storm chances will also continue into the upcoming weekend.

Through the rest of the morning, we'll have to keep an eye on an area of possible convective development in eastern Oklahoma. Some ascent can be spotted on infrared satellite imagery as of 1 AM, and elevated convection could develop and spread southeast through the early morning hours, possibly affecting our northeastern zones. This would likely be in the form of a small convective complex by the time it reaches the ArkLaTex, which at a minimum could send an outflow into our forecast area. Low PoPs have been maintained roughly from Bonham down to Emory through mid-morning.

Following any possible morning convective activity, we'll be dealing with some exceptionally hot weather today and into Saturday, with highs today climbing into the 105-108 degree range for some areas west of I-35. These ambient temperatures warrant an Excessive Heat Warning, and this product's configuration is unchanged from previous forecasts with this update. The rest of the area remains under a Heat Advisory with temperatures up to 105 and/or heat index readings in the 105-108F range. Regardless of the product in effect, this will be some of the hottest weather we'll see the entire year, and heat safety should be taken seriously. This exceptionally hot spell will largely be due to southwesterly winds during the afternoon hours, which can easily add a few degrees to high temperatures due to compressional warming. The presence of a surface thermal low to our northwest will act as a positive feedback mechanism, with the low's circulation acting to veer winds more westerly, causing greater adiabatic warming, thereby enhancing the thermal low, and so on. In addition, the combination of very hot temperatures, low humidity, and a southwesterly breeze will mean yet another day of elevated fire conditions. Temperatures won't have much of an opportunity to cool off overnight, and lows in the upper 70s and low 80s will occur tonight into Saturday.

-Stalley

LONG TERM. /NEW/ /Saturday and Beyond/

A surface low will be positioned near Wichita Falls at the start of the period with a stationary front along the Red River. The resulting veered low level flow will provide added compressional heating to the already hot conditions resulting from the mid level ridge centered to our west. Triple digit high temperatures will occur just about everywhere across the CWA, the exception being Lamar County where recent rains have occurred. With higher dewpoints, however, heat indices will have no trouble exceeding 105 degrees in the northeast counties. The ongoing Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will remain unchanged for now, with the bottom line being that folks area-wide should be mindful of the dangerous heat and limit outdoor activities.

On Sunday, the ridge will retreat farther to the west while a shortwave trough drops southeast through the Southern Plains. This pattern shift will send a cold front south to the Red River on Sunday. The front should then make slow but steady progress southward through North and Central Texas Sunday night, bringing with it a chance of thunderstorms and welcomed relief from the scorching heat. POPs have been increased to the chance category for most locations as the operational GFS continues to aggressively develop convection, but will not go any higher at this time as not all guidance is sold on widespread precipitation. It’s possible that an MCS will develop, which would lead to significantly higher POPs being added somewhere in the CWA. This and other details will be ironed out as we trudge through the sweltering weekend.

Either way, the region will be greeted with near to slightly below normal temperatures for the first half of next week. Red-River counties will likely see overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s, with lower 70s likely elsewhere through at least the middle part of next week, while daytime highs stay generally in the lower to middle 90s.

30

AVIATION. /Issued 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/ /06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period. Any potential convective activity over the next ~12 hours is expected to remain well northeast of the terminals. Outside of some passing high clouds, diurnal cumulus around 6-7 kft will be the extent of cloud cover. Winds will veer a bit more WSW this afternoon while increasing to 15-20 kts, but they'll return to the south this evening.

-Stalley

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 106 81 104 80 100 / 5 5 0 5 10 Waco 104 79 106 79 104 / 5 5 5 5 10 Paris 98 75 97 76 95 / 20 5 0 5 10 Denton 106 77 103 78 98 / 10 5 5 5 10 McKinney 104 78 103 78 99 / 10 5 0 5 10 Dallas 106 83 104 81 101 / 5 5 0 5 10 Terrell 103 78 103 76 100 / 10 5 5 5 10 Corsicana 102 78 103 79 101 / 5 5 5 5 10 Temple 103 77 105 78 104 / 5 5 5 5 10 Mineral Wells 107 77 105 76 99 / 5 5 5 10 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ100>103- 115>119-129>134-141>145-159.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095-104>107- 120>123-135-146>148-156>158-160>162-174-175.



30/26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX10 mi15 minS 11 G 1610.00 miFair87°F68°F54%1012.2 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX12 mi17 minS 1210.00 miA Few Clouds85°F70°F61%1009.8 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX14 mi17 minS 1110.00 miFair87°F66°F51%1010.1 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX16 mi17 minS 910.00 miA Few Clouds88°F68°F52%1010.6 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX20 mi17 minS 1110.00 miA Few Clouds86°F66°F53%1008.8 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX21 mi17 minS 1010.00 miFair86°F68°F55%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KADS

Wind History from ADS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.