Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:04PM Friday August 14, 2020 1:59 PM EDT (17:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:01AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1225 Pm Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms early, then scattered showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon, then becoming S 5 kt in the evening, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..N winds 5 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1225 Pm Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Moderate sw winds will previal through the weekend, as high pressure offshore extends across the coastal waters, and weak low pressure pulls away from the area. Scattered tstms can be expected much of the upcoming weekend, with less coverage expected Monday and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 141358 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 958 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. Unsettled conditions will prevail through the weekend, as a frontal boundary slowly approaches, with a semi-tropical air mass over the area. Slightly drier air is expected early next week behind the front. Unsettled weather returns by mid-week as boundary stalls near coast.

UPDATE. Fog lifted leaving fairly widespread blanket of low clouds across inland areas by mid morning. Westerly winds were pushing these clouds toward the coast and expect them to transition into a decent area of stratocu. Made minor adjustments to the forecast, mainly for pops and clouds. Expect a little later start with convection due to cloud cover this morning, but abundant moisture, differential heating, lingering trough and the sea breeze should all aid in initiation. The westerly flow should keep best convergence along sea breeze close to the coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. GOES onboard PWAT sensors detecting a stream of precipitable water content in excess of 2 inches, with slightly drier air bottled behind the mountains from ern TN to ern VA. GOES low- level water vapor and mosaic-radar reflectivity overlay show oceanic TSTMs remain attendant around a disturbance east of Cape Lookout. This feature will move NE in time, as an upper trough to the west, shifts east over the TN valley, increasing SW winds aloft locally.

Overall expecting a lull in convection this morning, until re- newed updrafts spawn convection this afternoon. Weak subsidence may be in play over the area with departing upper feature to the ENE. A west flow in the column may inhibit storms moreso inland today, but could increase coastal convergence. Have lowered pop values into scattered range today, as lift triggers will be diurnal and weak, joined by a downslope flow.

Semi-tropical air mass stays through Saturday. The low-level flow late Saturday begins to back toward south as a surface low and upper trough to the west approach the coast, also providing a slight boost in upper support. This should lead to better rain chances Saturday compared to today, as winds aloft and low- level convergence increase.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. With a 500mb shortwave moving across the area Saturday night, and a surface front approaching from the west, have likely pops in the forecast for Saturday night through Sunday. Moderate rainfall possible with high precipitable water values still in place. Highs Sunday in the upper 80s, aided by increased clouds and precip. Dry air moves in behind the front Sunday night, decreasing rain chances from west to east overnight. Lows near 75 Saturday night will drop to low 70s Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Abundant dry air aloft in place Monday through early Tuesday as deep north-northwest flow develops behind exiting front/trough. This will help keep any convection that may develop isolated, with low end chance pops in the forecast Monday and Monday night. Mid level high pressure offshore to the southeast strengthens Tuesday into Wednesday, combining with deepening upper level trough over eastern US to allow deep south-southwest flow to return to the area and increase moisture again. At the surface, a second boundary moves into the area on Tuesday and is forecasted to stall near the coast through end of the week. Will see increase in pops beginning Tuesday, with Wednesday and Thursday currently carrying highest chances. Temps near normal for the long term, with highs in the upper 80s and lows near 70.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. LIFR/IFR stratus and fog at the inland TAFs and VFR at the coast TAF. Inland stratus and fog will dissipate by 15 UTC. This could delay convection until after 18 UTC. IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected around thunderstorms. IFR conditions can be expected as stratus and fog are possible again after 06 UTC especially at the inland TAF sites.

Extended Outlook . Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSTMs this weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the coast. Less TSTMs early next week as slight drying occurs in wake of a cold front.

MARINE. Through Saturday..

SW winds will reach moderate range, as low pressure inland shifts east, and helps to tighten the SW gradient a little bit, resulting in 10-15 kt SW winds, with occasionally higher gusts. Winds and seas will be higher in and near TSTMs this period, scattered in coverage, and isolated waterspouts are expected today and again early Saturday, radar updates are encouraged. Winds in the afternoon near shore may back to S with gusts to 18 kt at times. Seas will be comprised of moderate SSW wind-sea every 4-5 seconds, and SE waves 1-2 feet every 8-9 seconds. Cloud to sea water strikes will remain a hazard this period as well. Never attempt to approach a waterspout, swirling winds can cause injury by flying debris. A waterspout can capsize a small craft.

Saturday Night through Tuesday..

Southwest flow 10-15 kts Saturday night and Sunday will veer to northerly by Monday morning behind an exiting front. Winds become light, 5 kts or less, and variable Monday through Tuesday as pressure gradient relaxes, before light SE flow develops Tuesday night. Seas 3-4 ft Saturday night through Sunday will relax to 2-3 ft Sunday night through Tuesday, combination of weakening S wind wave and 1-2 ft 9-10 s SE swell. Could see an additional weak SE swell arriving from TS Josephine late Monday into Tuesday. Storms likely over coastal waters Saturday night and Sunday, before chances decrease Sunday night through early Tuesday as dry air moves in aloft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . RGZ NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . RH MARINE . MJC/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi75 min W 5.1 81°F 1015 hPa77°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi52 min WSW 9.7 G 14 82°F 85°F1015 hPa
41119 43 mi43 min 85°F2 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi65 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1015.9 hPa
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC19 mi64 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F75°F75%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGGE

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S5CalmSW6S3W4W5NW3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5W4W4SW4
1 day agoSE5S8S5SW6S7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3W4CalmW4NW3CalmCalmCalmS5SW4S6
2 days agoSE8S9
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S10S7S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE8S5

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Fri -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:01 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:53 PM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:53 PM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.433.53.73.63.32.72.11.410.81.11.933.94.54.74.543.32.51.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:50 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.82.43.13.53.63.432.41.81.30.90.81.22.13.244.54.54.23.62.92.31.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.