Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brook Highland, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:05PM Saturday January 18, 2020 5:18 PM CST (23:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brook Highland, AL
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location: 33.45, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 182101 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 301 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

UPDATE. Evening Update.

SHORT TERM. /Updated at 0241 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

This Afternoon though Sunday.

Eastern Seaboard high pressure and remnant warm front have moved eastward as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The front was located just east of the Mississippi River into northern Mississippi. This front will continue southeastward and be just north of the I-20 corridor by 6-7 pm. A few areas of weak lift and convergence were located ahead of the front. These showers were measuring, at least light amounts. Therefore, kept the pops rather high the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. Then, the pops were slowly lowered as the front heads southeastward and out of the area around sunrise. This will be a high pop and rather low rain amount forecast. MUCAPE values are around 250 with Showalter values near zero. Did keep slight chance of thunder in the forecast but most locations will not experience any.

As the high pressure builds in behind the cold front, winds will become gusty out of the northwest late tonight into Sunday. It appears these values will hang just below established criteria, but in the 20-25 mph range. Wind chill values north will make it feel like 30s. Much different than the past few weeks. Lows Sunday morning from the upper 20s northwest to the lower 40s south. Highs on Sunday in the low 40s to low 50s.

75

Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 1216 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

/Afternoon Update/ Not many changes to the extended at this time. One addition was for the white stuff. Added snow flurries to north and east central areas Monday night as the next system moves by. The atmosphere is pretty dry but enough to squeeze the last bit out. The other change of interest was to raise the pops for the late week system as confidence improves slightly.

Mid day forecast looks pretty good. A cool and cloudy day over Central Alabama. Two areas of mainly light showers were in the area. One area from Eutaw to Lineville and another from Pickensville to Double Springs. This precipitation was associated with a upward motion from passing upper disturbance. This activity was also just ahead of a strong cold front.

For the remainder of the afternoon, made some adjustments on pops and generally shifted them slower and made the categorical area larger. Some areas may only receive a few hundredths while others may receive a quarter inch or so. The front will move into the area late this afternoon and reach the I-20 just after pm, then the I-85 corridor just after midnight.

75

Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 0322 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

Through Tonight.

A cold front currently moving through Oklahoma will quickly work into the area this afternoon and then push through during the evening. Look for the front to exit the area by Midnight. This will be a very quick frontal boundary, so rainfall will not be that high. Overall expect generally rain with the front, but a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out especially in the southern half of the area. Highs today will be in the 50s and 60s. Once the front clears temperatures will drop off and will get quite chilly overnight. Look for low to mid 30s in the northern 2/3 of the area, while the southeast will be in the 30s to low 40s. Counties in the far north will drop into the upper 20s and low 30s.

16

LONG TERM. /Updated at 0234 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/ Sunday through Friday.

A pattern change will result in cold and dry conditions through the middle of next week, but it will be somewhat short-lived as rain chances and milder temperatures return by the end of the next week. A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will be in place Sunday, placing the forecast area in dry northwest flow aloft. Dry northerly flow aloft will be in place at the surface between a departing low pressure system off the coast of Maine, and a 1045mb Arctic high building in from the Northern Plains. This will result in cold air advection Sunday as a modified Arctic air mass moves into Central Alabama. 850mb temps fall to the 0 to -2C range across the north Sunday afternoon, keeping highs in the 40s except in the southeast counties. 850mb temps fall into the 0 to -7 C range on Monday, keeping highs in the upper 30s to low 40s across the north and the mid to upper 40s south. With the high pressure remained centered to the northwest, winds are not expected to go calm so lows will not completely bottom out, but cold advection will still send lows into the 20s areawide Sunday night, and the lower 20s areawide Monday night with some upper teens in typically cooler locations. These will be the coldest temperatures since November 13. Wind chills in the teens will also be prevalent during the nighttime hours.

Within the northwest flow aloft, a strong shortwave will move through Monday night, potentially forming an upper low over Georgia on Tuesday. At this time this system appears very moisture- starved, but will continue to monitor. Tuesday night appears to be the best radiational cooling night as the center of the high pressure shifts to the Mid-Atlantic, so went with the coolest guidance for that night, though with some air mass modification lows will still be a couple degrees warmer than Monday night. A trough moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will help push upper- level ridging towards the area on Wednesday, and the air mass will moderate Wednesday and Thursday as low-level flow becomes east- southeasterly. This trough will be our next rainmaker on Friday, though there are some model differences regarding the track/timing of both the upper system and the surface low. The various solutions neither indicate any cold air nor instability for the system to work with at this time.

32/Davis

AVIATION. 18Z TAF Discussion.

Pre-frontal showers cover a large part of Central Alabama. Ceilings varied at this writing but should drop to MVFR. Some of the rain areas have been experiencing IFR. The showers will continue east and south this afternoon. There may be a brief break in the rain between the pre-front back edge and the actual frontal precipitation. The cold front should be near BHM just after 00z. Then the front enters MGM around 9z. The pressure gradient increases enough to produce some winds gust at 26kts. By Sunday, skies clear with gusty northwest winds.


FIRE WEATHER.

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front moves through. A change in weather pattern is expected Sunday through the middle of next week with cooler and drier conditions. RH values will fall into the 30s each afternoon with northwest winds, but red flag criteria will not be met for these parameters. Additionally, KBDI values remain less than 100 due to recent wet conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Gadsden 32 43 22 39 21 / 70 0 0 0 10 Anniston 33 44 23 41 22 / 80 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 30 45 24 41 23 / 80 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 33 48 26 44 24 / 70 0 0 0 10 Calera 33 47 25 42 22 / 80 0 0 0 10 Auburn 37 48 27 43 24 / 70 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 38 51 28 46 25 / 70 0 0 0 0 Troy 40 51 28 47 25 / 70 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/. None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL8 mi25 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1020.4 hPa
Alabaster, Shelby County Airport, AL19 mi25 minVar 37.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F93%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHM

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE9SE12
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1 day agoN9N9N10NE7N9NE8NE4NE10NE10
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2 days agoS5S5S3S7SW5S54SW7N7N3NW3N9N10N7N9N8N11N10N13N13N13
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.